Tanada wrote:That being said the idea that Uncle Sam or Vlad the Putin will supply fuel to average consumers to fritter away in a shortage instead of supplying the farms and military first is just nutty IMO. Yeah rationing stinks, but going hungry and being invaded by the ravening hoards from Canada stinks much worse
It would take a long time post peak for the governments anywhere to not have fuel for farming and military defense operations.
This is true only if you assume that geological decline is the only thing we have to worry about. Unfortunately, an economic crash tends to dramatically reduce our ability to produce oil and deliver it. You also make the assumption that governments could effectively maintain any useful command and control after a very severe economic crash. But electrical and telecommunication grids could go down very fast once a severe crisis begins.
Tanada wrote:There might be too many people on this ole globe for a post oil economy to feed them all, but when rationing starts you can expect the first things being adapted to alternative fuel sources will be the farming and military systems, for the same reason they will be getting the first ration of petroleum. Say it takes a decade to convert every piece of farm equipment to whatever alternative is arrived at.
What alternative? You are assuming that there will be controlled rationing. But when the economy fails, the government will be basically bankrupt. They will lose control.
Tanada wrote:Do you honestly believe that the down slope from peak oil will be so steep that the 5% that goes for producing and moving food items won't be possible before the conversion can be done? Seriously?
Yes. It won't be a question of a shortage of fuel. The next economic crisis itself might be enough to stop food deliveries to cities, resulting in mass starvation and die-off.
Tanada wrote:This thread is about the economy crashing, more or less like it did in 1929, 2001, 2008 and a bunch of other times.
I don't think so. Many people believe that this crash will be far worse than any crash in history. What makes you so sure that the economy can only crash "more or less like it did in 1929, 2001, 2008 and a bunch of other times"?
Tanada wrote:That is why I brought up Ancient Egypt and other civilizations, a crash is not a permanent situation.
When ancient civilizations collapsed, it was not equivalent to our economic "crashes" of 1929, 2001, or 2008. Those ancient civilizations completely collapsed. That has never happened to modern industrial civilization before. This crash could easily (and, I believe, will likely) result in the total collapse of our civilization.
Here is how:
An economic/financial/credit crisis results in financial system/supply chain cross contagion. This self reinforcing effect causes the abrupt failure of just in time delivery systems all around the globe. This includes the failure of food deliveries to major cities. There will be no effective way for any government to react.
Have you read the Korowicz paper?
Tanada wrote:That is provided we are not talking something like a dinosaur killer asteroid impact or Yellowstone super volcanic eruption.
Unfortunately, we are.