onlooker wrote:Okay, I see a bit both sides of your arguments Tanada and Sum. First on the pessimistic side, the electrical grid is a key weak point as so much of our civilization and its routine necessary functions are tied to the Grid. Second, JIT does put an element of danger and chaos into the Equation. Now, for the optimistic stance. Sum your assertions while not faulty in logic presumes lack of adaptation and pre-planning.
No, they don't. The Korowicz paper shows in great detail how rapidly the whole system could collapse once an economic crisis begins. It doesn't presume a lack of adaptation, it describes precisely why adaptation is likely to be impossible. As far as pre planning goes, this crisis could start next week and we don't have a plan.
onlooker wrote:I expect that the US economy and others will quickly transition to a more Command type economy. It seems inevitable.
It seems inevitable until you stop to think about the actual details. When will we transition? After the economic crash has begun? The Korowicz paper shows exactly why that will be too late.
onlooker wrote:By doing so, the eventualities that Tanada assumes will be realized.
But you don't explain specifically HOW we can possibly avoid the outcomes described in the Korowicz paper. You just disregard them. We can't even get to Tanada's optimistic eventualities unless we can get past the specific problems described in detail by Korowicz. No one ever explains exactly how this could actually be accomplished, it is just blindly assumed that it will be.
onlooker wrote:Priority will be given to food, military and in some cases health services. Again if we compare countries we must look at countries with strong stable governments and an existing infrastructure to ameliorate the worse of what is to come. I believe the US is one such country. Also, remember that once international trade breaks down those countries that can hold on, will be those that have a relatively favorable resource to population ratio.
Why do you even assume that any countries can "hold on" in the first place? There is no logical reason to assume this, just hope. The US might be in the worst position once international trade ends because the US is so heavily dependent on it. I do agree that a favorable resource to population ratio might be good for the few who survive, though.