creedoninmo wrote:Adam: I have found in my life of 61 years that some of the dumbest people I know never change their minds about anything.
I agree. I call it the ignorance of certainty.
creeddoninmo wrote: Smart people are resilient, adjust, learn and grow wise.
And there are different kinds of smarts. Shorty claims to be a project manager, which implies he understands budgeting and dollars, and then uses none of this kind of information to proclaim something 180 degrees from his previous position, where he assumed that prices were causal to the doom he has been hoping for, for awhile now.
And I don't think "smart people" show up one afternoon. People learn stuff. From learning stuff they gain knowledge. After gaining more than a little knowledge, they have insight. After they have accumulated insight, they develop wisdom.
creedononimo wrote:Most people in our world have no idea how energy effects their lives and don't want to know. The truth would scare them shitless and they don't want to go there. They don't have the courage.
It isn't about courage. They don't care because they don't have to care. Those who have made it possible for them to have their lifestyles did it in such a way that they don't have to bother. And what "truth"? Malthusians screaming from the rooftops that the world is going to end isn't a truth, it is someone screaming from a rooftop. Might have value. Might not.
creedoninmo wrote:My guess would be that your still somewhat young and I don't know what your education, career, what books you have read are.
My guess is that you don't guess very well.
creedoninmo wrote: I think that Short's maximum price function is still on target.
And will continue to do so until it isn't. It is the nature of spurious relationships. You know...like bell shaped curves and oil production?
creedoninmo wrote:What do you Adam B, believe the price of oil will be in 2020; go on, go out on a limb and tell me. How about 2025, 2030.
No need. I have a better prediction than the etp, because mine has been proven true through every cycle of the oil industry since Drake drilled his first well, which means I've got the etp beat so badly it isn't even fair. I've said it before, but I'll said it again just for you. The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. So we can all kick back now and just wait. Either I'm right, or Short is, and based on past market cycles (real energy issues, like the 1986 crash) it could take years to iron out. But like I said, I waited out bell shaped curves, I can wait out random decline equations from project managers with zero oil field experience. And better yet, who reverse course 180 degrees when the world doesn't end like they hoped!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"