To comment about what OS just said, I'd like to plug the "Free Slow Crash" manifesto which is a useful online PDF document called "Peak Energy, Climate Change, and the Collapse of Global Civilization". It is found all over the web and everybody should read it. It's freely downloadable as it was somebody's PHD thesis in 2010, look for the revised 2nd release version under the same title.
The other work of note is a copywrited book which you should also read if you have not already. It was published in 2005 by James H. Kunstler under the title
The Long Emergency. It's worth paying for. Yeah, I know most people's opinion of the author, but this work is easily worth the less-than-$10 cost.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008UX3KY2/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1As most of you know, I am a champion of the "Slow Crash" form of Doom. I think the real emergency started about 1798 when the Rev. Thomas R. Malthus published
An Essay on the Principle of Population. He had recognized the time when the human population of Planet Earth had exceeded the capacity of the eco-system to heal the damage it caused.
Our world has been dying since then. Peak Oil is the most prominent resource shortage, and the one that will probably hurt the human apes the most, and provoke numerous other shortages. In case you have not figured it out yet, I believe that all of us have lived our complete lives within the slow crash scenario, as did your Grandfather and even earlier ancestors. As will your Grandchildren if you are fortunate enough to have any. They will be seriously inconvenienced by Peak Oil, it will be reality for them, not the academic discussion it is for us.
In case you are in doubt about the rest of my beliefs, trying to model the exact date or impact of Peak Oil is a fruitless endeavor, because the prime variable is human behavior. We do not possess a Calculus of human behavior and we are not likely to ever have one. In spite of your pressing need to know the exact date of Peak Oil, this will be obvious only years after it happens, and in retrospect. BTW, my date is 2nd quarter 2008, for reasons I have enumerated many times.