Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:I think the key factor is the near total lack of investment for the three years 2015-2017 during the worst of the glut when world prices were down. Its not like those projects that take a decade to mature will still mature in a decade with a three year pause in the work needed. I am especially thinking of things like the Arctic drilling plan that was started in the North Slope Alaska, then put on hold because it was expensive and money was not pouring in hand over fist. The big Oil-Co's were all using funds to pay dividends and keep stockholders happy rather than paying the exploration and development budgets.
.... or maybe there aren't enough good prospects left to invest in, at least while futures remain under $100, and I'm betting many companies are pretty sure the economy is due to take a downturn well before they could cover the costs of exploration and development. Rising interest rates have to make them nervous if that's their thinking.
Tanada wrote:I think the key factor is the near total lack of investment for the three years 2015-2017 during the worst of the glut when world prices were down. Its not like those projects that take a decade to mature will still mature in a decade with a three year pause in the work needed. I am especially thinking of things like the Arctic drilling plan that was started in the North Slope Alaska, then put on hold because it was expensive and money was not pouring in hand over fist. The big Oil-Co's were all using funds to pay dividends and keep stockholders happy rather than paying the exploration and development budgets.
ROCKMAN wrote:M.B.S. – “…experts forecast that unless large oil discoveries are made soon, the world could be short of oil as early as in the mid-2020s...”. The consumers of the world have always been short of oil. Oil they could afford, that is. OTOH there has always been enough oil to satisfy consumers WHO COULD AFFORD THE THEN CURRENT PRICE. When oil hit $147/bbl there was a buyer for every bbl sold. And when oil recently hit $28/bbl there were still millions of consumers who couldn’t afford very little oil or any at all.
The only time there could every be a true shortage of oil is when the price dropped so low that every consumer could afford to buy as much as they could use. And that level of demand would be unquenchable IMHO.
When someone says they are worried about “running out of oil” I believe they really mean they are worried about when oil gets too expensive for them to buy. They really don’t give a crap about anyone else. LOL.
ROCKMAN wrote:When someone says they are worried about “running out of oil” I believe they really mean they are worried about when oil gets too expensive for them to buy. They really don’t give a crap about anyone else. LOL.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:ROCKMAN wrote:When someone says they are worried about “running out of oil” I believe they really mean they are worried about when oil gets too expensive for them to buy. They really don’t give a crap about anyone else. LOL.
+1
Enthusiastic clapping for stating the truth re oil supplies -- at least for a long time to come.
Of course, the entire "your money should be my money, whether I earned it or not" crowd definitely doesn't want to hear that. So telling the truth re economics scores lots of negative political points.
And then we wonder why our elected representatives tend not to tell us the truth.
GHung wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:ROCKMAN wrote:When someone says they are worried about “running out of oil” I believe they really mean they are worried about when oil gets too expensive for them to buy. They really don’t give a crap about anyone else. LOL.
+1
Enthusiastic clapping for stating the truth re oil supplies -- at least for a long time to come.
Of course, the entire "your money should be my money, whether I earned it or not" crowd definitely doesn't want to hear that. So telling the truth re economics scores lots of negative political points.
And then we wonder why our elected representatives tend not to tell us the truth.
You guys sort of skipped the part where, when oil gets more expensive (perhaps too expensive for some folks), the price of everything tends to go up. We all tend to feel it, whether or not you are smugly situated to absorb those costs. Discretionary spending tends to go down, and that's a big chunk of the economy.
Armageddon wrote:Doesn’t fracking have steep decline rates? How will this effect supply in the next year or two?
2/3rds of Ghawar production will collapse by 2022 due to all the salt buildup from the ocean water used to maintain pressure. KSA will not be able to maintain production in 2023 and will be bankrupt.
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