But note my observation here, posted on May 24, 2017:
copious.abundance wrote:I think you probably have to wait some more before deciding whether or not that chart is really going to show a sustained downturn. It could still be a temporary halt that continues resuming upward. Even if all it did was go sideways for a while, still might not indicate a recession.
Furthermore, it's always a danger relying on just one indicator to predict a recession, because you never know when that one indicator might do something it's never done before. The best method is to devise an index composed of several indicators, such as this one here or this one here. Neither are flashing a recession in the next year or so. That said, I think most economic data nerds will probably agree we are somewhere in the late stages of the current cycle. But that could still mean more expansion for another two years, or more.
That was a year-and-a-half ago as i write this.
The sun, is setting.