Forecasts for global economic growth for 2019 and 2020 have been shaved from last year’s 3.6% growth rate to 3.3% in 2019. That estimate came from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook published in April and may prove to be too optimistic.
In a report published last week by William Emmons, lead economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Center for Household Stability, warns that the housing signals are strengthening for a recession later this year or in the first half of next year.
A slowdown in the housing market has preceded every U.S. recession since World War II, says Emmons, and there are four indicators to keep an eye on: falling 30-year fixed mortgage rates, sales of existing homes, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices and the contribution of residential investment to growth of U.S. gross domestic product.
Mortgage loan interest rates that fall from their most recent cyclical peak have preceded each of the three most recent U.S. recessions by four to seven quarters. Emmons includes the following graph showing interest rate movements around the recessions of the early 1990s, 2001 and 2008. Precedent indicates the beginning of the next recession in the fourth quarter of this year.
On the contrary, it looks as if it could be forming a top.marmico wrote:The Conference Board LEI declined in June 2019. No recognizable peak in the Index yet.
https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf
The time....has not arrived.
A key recession tracker just hit its highest level since 2009, sending a signal that an economic downturn may be looming on the horizon.
The New York Federal Reserve's probability model, which predicts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, delivered a reading of 32.9% for June.
That's could mean tough times ahead, considering the measure has breached the 30% threshold before every recession since 1960. It sat at a precarious 28% in May.
EdwinSm wrote:Does this mark the end of the time of Copious Abundance? Soon time for a name change????
EdwinSm wrote:Does this mark the end of the time of Copious Abundance? Soon time for a name change????
copious.abundance wrote:- The 1-year/7-year yield curve is inverted.
- So is the 6-month/5-year
https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/
It would just be an ordinary recession, nothing more sinister than that.
The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.
The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.
“Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities,” Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business.
“If you depended on equities to tell you whether you are entering into a recession you did not do well. For example, October, November of 2006, exactly one year before the Great Recession began, the 2-10- inverted. Equities did well in the first half of 2008 when we were in a recession and oil prices hit a peak in May of 2008 when we were very much in a recession.
Sys1 wrote:We are supposed to handle a recession with negative rates and explosive debt since 2008?
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