copious.abundance wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:Re the US treasury yield curve going positive in mid October, moving more strongly positive in November, and US treasury interest rates rising meaningfully, that would seem to put a big dent in the "US recession is certain and soon" argument...
If you look at charts of the yield curve compared to recession starts, you notice that it is sometime after the yield curve goes positive again that the recession begins.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
^
Be sure to expand the slider beneath the graph to go all the way to the left to see the entire history.
Recessions are shaded in gray. Notice that when the recession starts, the yield curve has already gone back positive for at least a few months, and often as much as a year.
Thus, if history repeats itself, we would probably not see a recession start until sometime next year.
If we do not get a recession until maybe sometime early in 2021 at the latest, I'll concede my thesis in this thread did not pan out.
Fair enough. Thanks for the explanation.
Like I said, unlike certain types on this site, you don't post frequent unsupported nonsense, and over time have a good track record, re your economic calls, IMO.