Revi wrote:I think we're around 425 billion at this point, but it's maybe going to ramp up to 80 billion a month which takes us to almost a trillion a year soon. I guess it's a new QE to infinity and beyond! That's going to juice up the stock market!
As if things never change. If they actually spew out a $trillion or more total by fall and show no sign of it abating, THEN there will be real cause for concern.
So for for 2020, the Fed balance sheet trend is back to shrinking. (Shhh. The usual fast crash cheering / FUDding suspects won't like hearing that).
(You can zoom on the graph, and click the +more link under observations near the upper left, to see the weekly numbers for the past month). It looks like we're down roughly $27 billion for 2020. Not exactly on pace for $80 billion increases a month.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCLAnd of course, the Youtube arm wavers claiming the Fed would "totally lose control" by November weren't exactly right.
But I suppose as long as for any event continues, as usual, the usual patrol of doom can tell convincing tales of FUD -- they're doing their "job".
As usual, I'll go with the credible sources and the actual data and trends, re the Fed and actual professional economists.
In the real world, the terms of the vast majority of the funds being injected are 1 to 3 day loans. So it's NOT like this money is just all endlessly being pumped into, and left in the economy to slosh around (not that the arm wavers are going to point that out, or likely even understand it given their lack of understanding of economics (re past claims) in general.
https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/aut ... 01/01/2000Meanwhile, the overall SOFR market remains quiet enough re both rates and volumes to be positively sleep inducing. Not exactly a sign of market panic, much less stress.
https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/sofrThis piece looked pretty decent / balanced re trying to understand what is actually going on, and what may happen going forward.
Since we don't know, naturally bulls and bears will claim what's likely to happen is very different.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here- ... 2020-01-04
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.