Newfie wrote:I say that because the GDP now contains a lot of “service” industries that are of marginal value.
I know that is not conventional thinking, but it’s my thinking.
Thanks for that explanation.
The GDP is composed of goods and services that people want. Whether you or I think they are of "marginal value" or not is pretty irrelevant re the state of the overall economy.
The world is changing a LOT due to tech. Look at how many services, including posting at this website are purely part of "service" industries.
I think, respectfully, that to claim GDP is "greatly inflated" because the world is changing due to technology, and people are spending their time differently, just doesn't make a lot of sense -- given the consumption being REPLACED by those services.
If, for example, it means less driving, consuming physical goods, etc, then on a world with lots of bad problems showing up due to resource constraints -- it seems to me that this trend is actually a VERY GOOD THING. (The worst aspect of that is it takes energy to run things like phones and computers, but it takes a hell of a lot LESS energy than to manufacture traditional physical goods, ship them, dispose of them, etc. Oh, and less of many physical goods. And if we can green up energy a lot, maybe that energy consumption will be rather inconsequential.)
OTOH, if we're building thousands or even tens of thousands of satellites over the next decade(s) to ensure the world is heavily blanketed with dense, omni-present WIFI, for example -- the overall infrastructure to provide such services -- even if they are consumed by billions for decades, is hardly trivial, and I certainly acknowledge that aspect of the cost of services over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.