SeaGypsy wrote:The poll doesn't make sense. Collapse isn't a definitive term, it's relativistic. Without more detail of what you mean by collapse it's a meaningless question. The second option, BAU continue? Do you live under a rock?
Sys1 wrote:I'm a doomer but I bet BAU will be back before summer.
The collapse will come from lack of oil, not lack of will.
So... not yet. Collapse will come around 2030, when oil production reach Seneca cliff.
Newfie wrote:Remember all those bell curves we see of the “surge”. Globally we are somewhere on the upside of that curve. The curve width is about 3-4 months. So we have, very roughly, 2-3 months more of this before things start to settle out.
But then they will settle out. Even before that the cultures and societies will start to adapt. I don’t think we have seen the bottom of the economic surge yet, but there will be a bottom and a recovery.
I’m thinking the economic recovery will be what is called a saw tooth. A steep decline with a gradual recovery. It may well never return to the pre-virus highs, and surely not for a while. But it won’t collapse the global economy.
That will happen some day, sometime in the future, just not this day.
Plantagenet wrote:The China virus pandemic will pass and fade away, just as MERS, SARS, and other past disease threats faded away.
Then its back to BAU, assuming the Saudis and Russians jointly flooding the market with oil doesn't succeed in destroying the US fracking industry.
Cheers!
Outcast_Searcher wrote: .......
And then there's weather. There's all sorts of opinions, but I've noticed the leading virologists don't seem to claim to know what happens with this thing in the summer or next fall.
onlooker wrote:boy are we far along in that process.
onlooker wrote:Collapse is not an event it is a process. And boy are we far along in that process. Socially, economically and politically. I speak in a worldview. Obviously some countries are further along than others. As for a definition or characterization of this Collapse process one can say it is the deterioration of favorable/desirable living conditions for people
onlooker wrote:Collapse is not an event it is a process. And boy are we far along in that process. Socially, economically and politically. I speak in a worldview. Obviously some countries are further along than others. As for a definition or characterization of this Collapse process one can say it is the deterioration of favorable/desirable living conditions for people
Newfie wrote:I too believe we are far along in the process.
asg70 wrote:Newfie wrote:I too believe we are far along in the process.
The only way to feel that is from the perch of prosperity. Once we really ARE far along the process we'll look back on this period with envy.
Sys1 wrote:I'm a doomer but I bet BAU will be back before summer.
The collapse will come from lack of oil, not lack of will.
So... not yet. Collapse will come around 2030, when oil production reach Seneca cliff.
JuanP wrote:asg70 wrote:Newfie wrote:I too believe we are far along in the process.
The only way to feel that is from the perch of prosperity. Once we really ARE far along the process we'll look back on this period with envy.
It is true that we will look back on this period with nostalgia, but I am already very nostalgic about the world I grew up in a few decades ago, and we are already so far along the process that it is by now irreversible.
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