GoghGoner wrote:I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain. I am not invested at this time but once I unwind my NG positions, I'll be grabbing some.
vtsnowedin wrote:GoghGoner wrote:I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain. I am not invested at this time but once I unwind my NG positions, I'll be grabbing some.
You do know that the decline in driving has trashed the demand for corn ethanol and farmers are reassessing how many acres to plant this spring.?
I suppose there is some way to short corn futures but I don't know what that is as I don't play in the commodity markets. But failing that I don't see much upside in the corn market this year but you have fun with that and may the trend be with you.GoghGoner wrote:vtsnowedin wrote:GoghGoner wrote:I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain. I am not invested at this time but once I unwind my NG positions, I'll be grabbing some.
You do know that the decline in driving has trashed the demand for corn ethanol and farmers are reassessing how many acres to plant this spring.?
Sure, lack of ethanol demand is already priced in. My fundamental view is that if it costs more to produce than folks get paid then it is a fairly safe bet and reward trumps risk. I haven't retired as a full-time investor so there is that.
GoghGoner wrote:I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain.
mmasters wrote:So far it looks like I caught the bottom.
The really good plays are doing a "V" shaped recovery whereas the rest of the market will probably do a "U" shaped recovery.
I think the market has bottomed. The only thing that could upset the balance of information would be if social distancing turns out to take much longer than originally thought.
vtsnowedin wrote:The Fed is dumping trillions of money into the markets to prop them up. That can not go on day after day for very long. After that ends the market will adjust to the new reality and having more information about the new market realities I expect another significant down turn that might take the market down past 16,000. This is far from over.
mmasters wrote:Not much need for the fed to prop up the stock market at the moment. .
vtsnowedin wrote:mmasters wrote:Not much need for the fed to prop up the stock market at the moment. .
Not much need You say?
Then why this today?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/economy/ ... index.html
New York (CNN Business)The Federal Reserve is continuing its extraordinary efforts to prop up the US economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The central bank announced a new $2.3 trillion round of loans that include even more support for small businesses and consumers — and, for the first time, for states, cities and municipalities, too.
Fed dusts off 2008 playbook to avoid another financial crisis
Fed dusts off 2008 playbook to avoid another financial crisis
The Fed said Thursday that it is creating a Municipal Liquidity Facility with up to $500 billion in loans and $35 billion in credit protection in order to "help state and local governments manage cash flow stresses caused by the coronavirus pandemic."
Through this lending program, the Fed said it will buy short-term debt from states and Washington D.C., counties with at least 2 million people and cities with a population of 1 million and above.
"The Fed's role is to provide as much relief and stability as we can during this period of constrained economic activity, and our actions today will help ensure that the eventual recovery is as vigorous as possible," said Fed chair Jerome Powell in a statement.
The Fed also said Thursday that it will supply financing to banks taking part in the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program.
Trump and Biden should agree on this: Fed Chair Powell deserves a second term
Trump and Biden should agree on this: Fed Chair Powell deserves a second term
Additionally, the central bank said it was boosting its Main Street Lending Program for small businesses with an additional $600 billion in loans as well as $75 billion in funding from the Treasury Department via the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) fiscal stimulus.
And the Fed is also expanding three other loan facilities it had already set up for consumers and businesses with $850 billion more in credit backed by $85 billion in credit protection from the Treasury Department.
The Fed is hoping that these moves, coupled with numerous other lending programs and the cutting of interest rates to zero, will be able to support the US economy at a time when job losses are mounting and many businesses are being forced to close their doors.
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