AdamB wrote:jedrider wrote:AdamB wrote:jedrider wrote:Bingo! Peak Oil.
Again!
Yes, I do like to repeat the obvious. Peak Oil means that our rate of growth will decrease as non-oil means of powering our economy are just not as potent as the oil cornucopia was. That's all.
Peak oil means we will consume less oil. That's all. Might it be accompanied with less GDP growth? Sure. They are generally called "recessions" and happen on a semi-regular basis...with or without peak oils, past, present or future, getting involved.
jedrider wrote: It's good to acknowledge change when it's happening.
Absolutely.
When, adjusting for GDP growth, when we're actually consuming less oil as a trend for, say, five years (to establish a meaningful trend vs. noise), be SURE and get back to us, peak oil folks.
Meanwhile, until BEV's become over, say 25% of the global car market, I would expect the general trend of oil use to grow as global GDP grows (at least the same general direction) to hold.
After that, it depends on how rapidly BEV oil demand displacement occurs in relation to global demand growth from things like more roads, more flying, and more petrochemical demand.
I'm not convinced global oil demand will drop rapidly from the differences between those two things, as I expect BEV demand to grow at a tepid pace overall, compared to the green "oil will be a thing of the past REAL SOON NOW" empty claims. For one thing, BEV uptake will be considerably slower in the third world than the first world, re relative economic and infrastructure issues.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.