JuanP wrote:There was a shortage of edible plants seeds in the USA for months, too. Some sellers stopped selling in retail amounts and only supplied wholesale amounts to previous commercial customers with pre existing accounts. Investing in companies that produce and distribute seeds is probably a good idea in the USA.
vtsnowedin wrote:You are both assuming that the Covid vaccines do not end the problem and the economy continues to decline. I am much more optimistic about this coming year and I doubt there will be any real shortages of any necessary commodity.
There are of course the bills governments have racked up fighting the pandemic and they will have to be paid with real money but renewed productivity should be able to stand that strain.
Karle wrote: and Bill Gates expects a large number of deaths from vaccination.
vtsnowedin wrote:You are both assuming that the Covid vaccines do not end the problem and the economy continues to decline. I am much more optimistic about this coming year and I doubt there will be any real shortages of any necessary commodity.
There are of course the bills governments have racked up fighting the pandemic and they will have to be paid with real money but renewed productivity should be able to stand that strain.
evilgenius wrote:investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.?
evilgenius wrote:Since investing is about figuring out tomorrow today, or trying, I think it's time to look at oil. Consider for a second the pent up demand to drive. It's something, driving as a means to express personal freedom, that has been practically hard coded into us over the last, modern era, grip of decades. Demand for driving fuel will return soon. Many oil stocks will at least rebound to what their average levels were before the pandemic knocked out demand. And they will do it as those investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.
I think the real question is which companies within the sector are the best to buy. Should a person reach out for a long term play, like RIG, or go for more immediate returns, with CVX or other?
REAL Green wrote:evilgenius wrote:investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.?
That was once the case with investing but in the New new normal it is all about if the PTB allow you to make money. The "Rig" is in just like the "Steal". Investors will play along within their little window of REAL investing. When haircut time comes then investors will find out just how naked their investments are to manipulation and control for the benefit of a few who care more about power than money. There is little free markets left. Moral hazard is everywhere. This is truly a time of decline!
vtsnowedin wrote:evilgenius wrote:Since investing is about figuring out tomorrow today, or trying, I think it's time to look at oil. Consider for a second the pent up demand to drive. It's something, driving as a means to express personal freedom, that has been practically hard coded into us over the last, modern era, grip of decades. Demand for driving fuel will return soon. Many oil stocks will at least rebound to what their average levels were before the pandemic knocked out demand. And they will do it as those investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.
I think the real question is which companies within the sector are the best to buy. Should a person reach out for a long term play, like RIG, or go for more immediate returns, with CVX or other?
Yes the demand for oil will recover both for driving and flying. The fly in that ointment is of course Biden's wish to phase out the fossil fuel industries. I think RIG which is on the financial roaps might not survive a new round of regulations and restrictions where the larger sector diversified corporations like chevron and Exxon will do nicely. Exxon is already up 12.3% over this last quarter.
vtsnowedin wrote:CVX vs XOM is six of one a half dozen of the other. I took XOM at $35.80 and would not be surprised to see it go back to $70 and above. On a more forward looking investment I bought a bit of NEE (Nextera energy) as they have wind ,solar battery storage operations along with traditional oil gas and coal plants. In the same size class as both XOM and CVX but a better spread across the energy industry both today and tomorrow.
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