yeahbut wrote:GHung wrote: global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.
It certainly is an interesting thought exercise:
is the system uniquely vulnerable now? what kind of impact would covid-19 have had on the world 50 years ago? Or in 1950? Would it have been thrown into the massive economic tailspin that it has now? I mean, the great depression doesn't seem like a very resilient response to the wall st crash, but is that different? No, I'm asking . I have no idea.
Some of the vulnerabilities are:
... Humans are far more mobile, globally, than they were in the '30s
... Supply chains are JIT (just in time) and are, again, more global. Most products are not produced locally and are not warehoused/stockpiled for the most part.
... Food chains are also very long, intercontinental in many instances. The onions in my stew last night are from Peru. I'm in North Carolina.
... Many products these days are not built to last. Planned obsolescence is a thing now.
... There are far more humans now, making more demands on systems. Per capita energy and resource consumption is much higher. Economies/jobs/infrastructures get locked into those levels of production/consumption.
... Systems are far more complex, optimized. A lot of things have to go right for them to perform.
... Financial and technical cross-contagion is more of a thing these days, IMO.
I could go on, and folks are free to add to the list. I have to go buy more toilet paper