cantonn11 wrote:I have an understanding that many recessions are caused by energy price spikes or energy shortages. In the Great Recession/GFC of 2008, the root cause of that crisis was the shortfall in energy supply (particularly oil) to demand which resulted in a huge price spike resulting in a significant increase in energy prices.
cantonn11 wrote:I also believe that a severe pandemic could also cause a severe recession or even an economic depression far worse than the 2008 crisis ...
Newfie wrote:Aso I think you could expand that a bit. The pandemic could be against humanity directly OR it could attack one of our principal food sources. Just last year China lost about 50% of its pig production IIRC. Chickens, corn, wheat, rice, potatoes are all vulnerable to some new biological attack. If one or more were hit hard there could he strong ripples through the global economy.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Newfie wrote:Aso I think you could expand that a bit. The pandemic could be against humanity directly OR it could attack one of our principal food sources. Just last year China lost about 50% of its pig production IIRC. Chickens, corn, wheat, rice, potatoes are all vulnerable to some new biological attack. If one or more were hit hard there could he strong ripples through the global economy.
True, and to the extent we keep moving toward broad monocultures for certain foods to make things cheaper and "more efficient", that makes the risk that much worse.
Bananas and the Panama disease (and the race to try to save bananas with technology like gene editing) is a case in point. The reason the problem is so severe is that essentially ALL the normal grocery store bananas in the first world are the SAME plant.
There are plantains, of course, but that's a different species.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:cantonn11 wrote:I have an understanding that many recessions are caused by energy price spikes or energy shortages. In the Great Recession/GFC of 2008, the root cause of that crisis was the shortfall in energy supply (particularly oil) to demand which resulted in a huge price spike resulting in a significant increase in energy prices.
No it wasn't. You're on the internet, you can look it up and check what all sorts of very credible economic experts / sources say on that. The 2008 great recession was CLEARLY primarily a real estate disaster causing a big capital dislocation and crisis of confidence in the banking and then the entire financial system. (Facts and expertise are both "things").
No doubt the high energy, especially oil, prices didn't do any GOOD. They were certainly a big inconvenience for many, but they were NOT shutting down the US or global economy at the peak in July of 2008, even though they were causing some people to park their gas guzzlers and drive econoboxes to work to save money on the daily commute. (There were people like that I discussed the issue with as neighbors in my apartment complex, for example). But that was only a secondary issue, and a far distant one compared to the primary one of real estate and financial dislocation from that.
Sys1 wrote:2008 so called "crisis" is the first step of our civilisation's collapse.
147$ a barrel triggered :
- Expensive energy for gas guzzling american SUV which hurted severly average families living in suburbia, places where folks are far away from everything they need just to live.
- Real estate variable rates went north because central banks had to increase main rates in order to cool down oil inflation. Oil with which everything else is tied closely or not.
- Too many people figuring out they couldn't pay bank because of increasing rates decided to sell their houses... but as millions made the same decision in the same time, the market collapsed. Banks who played fire with subprimes assets collapsed. Countries all other the western world and beyond saved the day with massive public debt in which we drown like in the rabbit hole for more than 10 years.
- Lack of investments in companies, aka lack of jobs or loosing job just because of FED increasing rates.
Since 2008, rates are locked around 0 and our economy is becoming virtual, meaning you feel rich because you can watch hundred of movies on netflix or download incredible video games, while you are actually poor because you work for uber/amazon in your miserable apartment and can't buy a car or holidays a bit far away.
Everything will look fine as long as oil doesn't go up again. Because when it will occur, central banks will have to seriously increase rates for the first time since 2008 which will trigged a full collapse of world economy.
We are check mate, one or two moves to play, we just earn time. As an optimistic, I guess we can postpone end of the world as we know it somewhere around 2030, just in time to validate Olduvai Theory.
StarvingLion wrote:Courtesy of Sys1, "I'm a "doomer" but it won't collapse for another 10 years", of course.
diemos wrote:To deal with the pandemic the government ordered certain sections of the economy to shut down. The correct response to this would be to provide support for people in the affected sectors to buy food and pay rent and support for state government lost sales tax revenue and support for the states unemployment fund. Instead there was a general "stimulus", which is like slamming on the brakes and hitting the gas at the same time, giving money to people who don't need it and have nothing to spend it on. A truly bizarre response.
AdamB wrote:StarvingLion wrote:Courtesy of Sys1, "I'm a "doomer" but it won't collapse for another 10 years", of course.
As compared to "I stake my entire reputation on the world ending".....last year? And then being stupid enough to pretend to forget they said it? You aren't even a doomer PuutyTat, just some Canuck playing the Ground Hog day game.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:The other thing I found bizarre was how they handled the "folks can't pay their rent" issue. Without helping out the landlords (who are NOT all rich corporations) to at least some extent, just saying nonpaying tenants can't be evicted if they fill out a form is DISASTROUS policy.
diemos wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:The other thing I found bizarre was how they handled the "folks can't pay their rent" issue. Without helping out the landlords (who are NOT all rich corporations) to at least some extent, just saying nonpaying tenants can't be evicted if they fill out a form is DISASTROUS policy.
The famous "unfunded mandate" ... terrible policy. A $2T stimulus divided among 30m unemployed is enough to just give them $67k each which should keep them afloat for a year while sitting at home twiddling their thumbs. If we had a working press corp there should be exposes all over the place about where all of those stimulus packages actually went.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:From what I saw and read, the government implementation of Covid-19 vaccines in the spring was an example of government working very WELL.
Heineken wrote:Can you have a mild pandemic?
An outbreak is called an epidemic when there is a sudden increase in cases. As COVID-19 began spreading in Wuhan, China, it became an epidemic. Because the disease then spread across several countries and affected a large number of people, it was classified as a pandemic.Jul 1, 2020
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