theluckycountry wrote:Not all suburbs are doomed, it all boils down to economies of scale.
AdamB wrote:theluckycountry wrote:Not all suburbs are doomed, it all boils down to economies of scale.
This thread is 16 years old. Suburbs were supposed to be GONE by now, based on the failed peak oil prognostications of the past. If you aren't eating long pork weekly and bicycling everywhere you go at BEST, then we have to start with the basic idea....it certainly WASN'T lack of energy, or specifically liquid fossil fuels, that allowed suburbia to live until now. So while suburbia might die for all sorts of reasons, across all sorts of time frames, it probably won't have much to do with previously hallucinated assumptions of liquid fossil fuel availability, or its future availability to support this peculiar human living style.
Newfie wrote:Lucky,
Please reminde me where you do live.
AdamB wrote:theluckycountry wrote:Not all suburbs are doomed, it all boils down to economies of scale.
This thread is 16 years old. Suburbs were supposed to be GONE by now
theluckycountry wrote:AdamB wrote:theluckycountry wrote:Not all suburbs are doomed, it all boils down to economies of scale.
This thread is 16 years old. Suburbs were supposed to be GONE by now
These city suburbs will never be 'Gone' as you refer, they will simply become very depopulated as the food supplies and water supply etc disappear.
theluckycountry wrote:Our entire modern way of life, from pharmaceuticals and weed sprays to the manufacture of our cars and roads will have to all but go when the oil goes.
AdamB wrote:theluckycountry wrote:Our entire modern way of life, from pharmaceuticals and weed sprays to the manufacture of our cars and roads will have to all but go when the oil goes.
Good thing that won't be an issue before the seas rise a couple meters, crop yields start being problematic, and all sorts of more pressing issues present themselves.
theluckycountry wrote:Newfie wrote:Lucky,
Please reminde me where you do live.
Up in the mountains south of Brisbane, AUS.
Newfie wrote:theluckycountry wrote:Newfie wrote:Lucky,
Please reminde me where you do live.
Up in the mountains south of Brisbane, AUS.
OK and thanks.
theluckycountry wrote:Those processes take decades to hundreds of years, the oil depletion crises is playing out now Adam. You have a very poor grasp of all this I am afraid. Have you lost your job yet? Are you semi-retired on the government handouts? What is it, $300 a week to sit on your bum? What will you you do when the stimulus money goes and there is no job for you? That's where this is heading, Massive Job Losses.
vtsnowedin wrote:I see the suburbs having a new lease on life courtesy of Covid -19. People are abandoning city apartments and moving to the suburbs to work from home and the trend appears to be long lasting. Instead of declining in a low energy environment I see future suburban roof tops covered in solar panels with solar charged electric cars doing the remaining commuter runs.
Many of the oldest suburbs closer to the cities that produced them need to have utility lines replaced and upgraded but that already needed to be done and now the residents will have the income to pay for the work.
Some changes need to be made like allowing retail stores within walking distance of houses instead of square miles of residential only zoning that made daily trips by automobile a necessity but that is just a change in regulation.
In short the demise of suburbia is far from assured.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
vtsnowedin wrote: Now if I were a planner in New Orleans I'd take mile square sections beside the Mississippi and move the houses off (paying the occupants appropriately) and add thirty feet of fill from river dredgings and municipal waste etc. and once allowed to settle sufficiently cap it and replace the houses and other infrastructure building a new suburb well above sea and flood level. Then move on to the next mile block upstream or down.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:vtsnowedin wrote: Now if I were a planner in New Orleans I'd take mile square sections beside the Mississippi and move the houses off (paying the occupants appropriately) and add thirty feet of fill from river dredgings and municipal waste etc. and once allowed to settle sufficiently cap it and replace the houses and other infrastructure building a new suburb well above sea and flood level. Then move on to the next mile block upstream or down.
Sorry but ultimately futile as most of New Orleans is built on compacted silt already. The problem is outside of the French Quarter which is actually built on an ancient chuck of bedrock the surrounding area is all loose fill washed down the Mississippi since the end of the last major glaciation. Maximum elevation in the whole city is just 20 feet above sea level and most of the surrounding land is 2 feet (600 mm) above high tide. Sea level rise is not stopping any time soon. Even if your plan was a 100% success the artificially elevated city would soon be an island surrounded by the GOM. Current sea level rise is around 2.5mm per year and though it would take about 200 years to make your elevated city an island that presumes the rate of rise doesn't change. In reality the rate of sea level rise has more than doubled since 1970 and I see no evidence it is going to slow down any time soon. If it keeps doubling every 50 years that cuts your 200 years to less than 100, and all this presumes our civilization remains advanced technologically the whole time.
Newfie wrote:FWIW
I keel hearing how folks are leaving the cities. And maybe it is generally true.
However in my specific city neighborhood it is NOT true. They are building like crazy and building values are rising.
Why there is this anomaly I do not know. I suspect it may have something to do with the U of Penn/Children’s Hospital complex which seems to grow without end.
Tanada wrote:
Personally I was never a believer in the "death of Suburbia, everyone moves to the Big Urbanity" model of the future. Just look at human history, we have been building cities for thousands of years.
If you travel to Rome today you can visit the mounds outside the ancient city limits where for generations the slave trash collectors would gather up the broken shards of ceramics and carry them outside the city walls.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests