Ibon wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:
And also, to be honest, anyone but, say, Tesla fanbois, would freely admit that most of the current daily movement in TSLA is based on speculation vs. an investment time-frame, re fundamental developments to what Tesla is doing. So does BTC need to be any different?
I pretty much agree with your post. What is worth adding as Careinke pointed out is that the number of BItcoins is finite and as the value goes up you are purchasing a fraction of a bitcoin. Unlike fiat currencies controlled by central banks investing in Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. At the moment with the economic crisis caused by Covid19 requiring huge injections of fiat currencies in the worlds economies to deal with the economic dislocation investing in BItcoin is viewed as a inflation hedge. Inflation seems inevitable resulting from all these trillions being pumped into economies to keep them going until the pandemic is passed. Crypto digital gold.
evilgenius wrote:I think that in 2021 both climate change and cyber security will become important. Climate change because it's already happening. Cyber security because threats that come from where you don't expect them are more scary. Right now, we are waiting for Trump's people to demonstrate, and threaten another physical location. What happens if they are up to doing something virtual?
[US cyber officials] said they worried about delicate but unclassified data the hackers might have taken from victims like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, including Black Start, the detailed technical blueprints for how the United States plans to restore power in the event of a cataclysmic blackout.
The plans would give Russia a hit list of systems to target to keep power from being restored in an attack like the one it pulled off in Ukraine in 2015, shutting off power for six hours in the dead of winter. Moscow long ago implanted malware in the American electric grid, and the United States has done the same to Russia as a deterrent.
Pops wrote:evilgenius wrote:I think that in 2021 both climate change and cyber security will become important. Climate change because it's already happening. Cyber security because threats that come from where you don't expect them are more scary. Right now, we are waiting for Trump's people to demonstrate, and threaten another physical location. What happens if they are up to doing something virtual?
This could be the winner.
The Russians are way up deep in our business, both gov and biz. They've been there at least 9 months. I know nothing about hacking but I'm gonna say that is sufficient time to steal anything worth stealing and insert backdoors in everything that matters.
This caught my eye:[US cyber officials] said they worried about delicate but unclassified data the hackers might have taken from victims like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, including Black Start, the detailed technical blueprints for how the United States plans to restore power in the event of a cataclysmic blackout.
The plans would give Russia a hit list of systems to target to keep power from being restored in an attack like the one it pulled off in Ukraine in 2015, shutting off power for six hours in the dead of winter. Moscow long ago implanted malware in the American electric grid, and the United States has done the same to Russia as a deterrent.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/us/p ... nment.html
evilgenius wrote:By the time Christmas comes around, anyone who has decided to go it alone, outside of the government's forgivable loan restrictions, will really be feeling it.
The markers could be touch and go, for some sectors. Hangers on, like JC Penny, may actually sink below the waves. Or, companies could become untethered from reality altogether, becoming believer's echospheres.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:evilgenius wrote:By the time Christmas comes around, anyone who has decided to go it alone, outside of the government's forgivable loan restrictions, will really be feeling it.
The markers could be touch and go, for some sectors. Hangers on, like JC Penny, may actually sink below the waves. Or, companies could become untethered from reality altogether, becoming believer's echospheres.
As though JC Penney hasn't been an economic disaster for a good 15 years now, and flirting with bankruptcy (at least on and off) for a number of years (I'm not going to bother to look it up).
Running businesses often involves debt. If debt can't be paid, a business is at risk. When there's a financial mess causing a big downturn, that problem gets magnified -- i.e. in any major recession.
Nothing really new here, except this mess came on very quickly, and was completely unexpected (economic signals don't trigger for a virus -- only when the economy is impacted because people stop going places and spending as much money).
evilgenius wrote:I think the Fed won't keep interest rates as low as they are now. I think there will be at least one quarter point rate rise. In the meantime, the rate on the ten year will blow well past a quarter percent higher than it is right now. I don't know why, but the financial world will act like it wasn't prepared for that. There could be a spike downward, which would really be a buying opportunity.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:BUMP, per careinke's request in the 2022 predictions forum.
Pops wrote:Have you ever seen a kid when they realize they've just done something bad? I get the feeling some republicans are feeling some vague sense of remorse and perhaps hoping for an excuse to get away from the poison they've been drinking and spoon feeding the gullible masses. I don't know for sure, and don't have much of a baseline since I never go there, but looking at Fox News site just now it reads like VOX or huffpost as the hypocrites scramble to distance themselves from the outrages they have been lining their pockets with for years. Probably a fleeting moment but I'll predict that some Rinos like Romney gain in power and the most outrageous like Hawley and Gommert (violence in the streets!) are sidelined.
I'll predict the Ds get the federal minimum wage raised to at least $12 if not $15, and the Rs continue to implement the "southern strategy" because after all, it's all they got.
trump will attempt to pardon himself and everyone he ever knew, loved, touched stood next to, smelt, felt, in his lifetime or any of his descendants lifetime down to the 133 person. (*David Bromberg)
He'll leave the country before the inauguration to avoid prosecution. Maybe go see Vlad for his payday and discuss some military secrets in return for a hotel sign.
On the D side Biden is having a tough transition, ...
Biden will have a signing party to reverse as many of trumps orders as possible, those that weren't just BS or weren't already killed by judges anyway. He'll rejoin the Paris accord, WHO, WTO, Great Reset. He'll do some national health stuff, recommend masks or something, attempt to organize the vaccine delivery, maybe give drug companies money.
Legislatively the parties are pretty equally divided and internally divided too so not much will happen, maybe public works — home weather stripping like O did. More stimulus tho, Ds can ram that through. They know that some serious recession is out there waiting on the helicopters to leave.
Social media will be regulated. MSM will stare at their collective navels.
It will take a long time to reach herd immunity, couple of years anyway. A minimum of 1 million people will die in the US. More if the new variant is much more contagious. It will be known as the trump plague. Maybe in a year when more study is complete and the variant is killing 10k/day more people will embrace the vaccine. I know a few health pros, some are not taking it because they don't trust the safety, don't trust trump.
Huge real estate washout coming. Ds will try to avoid it like the ...
FHA loan delinquencies are at record highs and only national forbearance and refinancing with free money and FHA buying up loans like it can print money...
...has kept the market afloat. But now everyone that can refi has, forbearance can't last forever, and the market has overheated on free money once again.
Oil demand and price will remain low thru the plague. Independants and small LTO operators will go BK and be bought up by majors. Uncontrolled growth in unconventional production will never return. Majors and OPEC will delay development because Iran will be allowed to export and the price will crash some more. No development now means no new oil in 5ish years. Natural gas demand will wane with increasing RE, and that means lower gas liquids. All the while depletion never sleeps. C+C will begin to decline this decade, about the time the economy wants to grow.
Night is still be dark and winter still cold and it is still a long way from here to there.
Peak demand is a mirage.
And peak oil is past
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