First halving November 28, 2012 $12.4
Second halving July 9, 2016 $680
Third halving May 11, 2020 $8,590
After each previous halving the price began a steady climb for some months before going into an exponential blow off https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ (All Data)
There was no significant contraction in price after the halving that I can see from the chart. Prior to the last two halvings there was significant volatility in the months leading up, just as we see now.
None of this is evidence in and of itself that a similar exponential upswing in price will occur after this halving. It's just what happened three times before. For an exponential increase you would need buyers, lots of buyers whose demand pushes up the price.
Large corporations like Tesla, netflix, Meta, Amazon etc, executed cumulative stock splits of up to 20:1 as their multi-thousand dollar shares began to collapse in price or stagnate a few years ago. This had the twin effects of making the price seen more affordable as well as hiding the fact they had fallen by a thousand dollars and more. Of course this was to present the stocks as stable investments for retirement accounts etc and does not apply to BC since it is a purely speculative buy, as is evidenced by it's recurrent massive gains and massive losses.
One thing of note though, the price rises and collapses of Bitcoin follow a recognizable pattern. They now mirror the rise and fall of the major technology stocks with the same peaks and lows. I don't find this surprising since BC has moved firmly into Wall Street camp with the shift to exchanges and the new derivatives and ETF's. To my mind if you're betting on BC going to the moon you're betting on the major technology stocks having commensurate great increases in price. Difficult to see in the current environment.
Just click on any of the tech stocks listed above and compare the long term chart with the BC all data chart linked above also.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG?nc ... m0o32z3jzm