[MonteQuest]

That is $24 billion a year that’s stays in the economy instead of sending overseas to people that hate us..

More disinformation. Only 17% ofour imported oil comes from the Middle east. Most of it comes from Canada and Mexico.

So, you mean $4 billion wouldn't go to those who hate us, right?

[TheDude]

Seriously though, Snik and I are on the same page I think. As long as prices stay high I'm in tall cotton. I can almost charge what I want as a consultant. A significant increase in production or reduction in consumption would only reduce my income potential. But I would gladly trade that for a chance to let the country adjust to the new reality.

It's good to have people around who can grasp the distinction. I'm not anti-corporate, or perhaps I should say, I'm resigned to their existence. They're part of industrialized society, what are you going to do?

It'd be ideal if we could find a way for energy companies to morph into servicing renewable energy projects or the like, but it seems they're largely one trick ponies. If we've moved away from hydrocarbons what does a petroleum geologist do? (Bet you guys have some examples!) 'Course we'll still be utilizing oil/gas on some scale for a long time.

But it'd be better if investment capital went in other directions. Some offshore should be part of the mix but ANWR is just too energy/capital/time intensive to warrant the yields, IMO. It does look like political will to oppose it will collapse soon, definitely if shortages begin; but perhaps we'll regret our decision to go down that road after 4-5 years. I'm reminded of the WPPSS nuclear power boondoggle, which could have been prevented with more foresight.

[MonteQuest]

If we don't wake up, in another generation we won't be producing or manufacturing much of anything here.

No, if we do wake up, we won't be producing or manufacturing much of anything ever again.

We will be living within limits.

[AgentR]

Your thinking makes no sense whatsoever. It is completely failed logic, and is the line of thinking that has helped get us into this mess. By your way of thinking we what, allow drilling in these areas when oil reaches $500/BO? Or is there some other magic number? I am guessing that a few years ago you might have said $100.

You are asserting that my argument is failed logic; yet show no reasoning as to HOW it is failed.

As to price targets, I've *ALWAYS* asserted that oil has been, and remains today, ridiculously cheap for what it does. So no, I would not have given a magic number of $100 a few years ago. Gasoline at $5 a gallon is a political irritant nothing more.

If a strategic analyst se-l-ects a coming significant reduction in the amount of oil produced globally as a premise; a sound strategic policy is to withhold your own resources from the market, acquire as much of everyone elses resource first for the price of printed money you control; then produce your own resources to manage the years of decline with more effectiveness than your external competition.

has made this country one of the greatest ever on the planet.

Jingoism... Everyone thinks their country is "one of the greatest ever..." Not that America is a bad place, but superlatives always seem more dogmatic than rational.

Your line of thinking is the same that has shut down, or severely curtailed industry after industry in this country with the "why here", and NIMBY (not in my back yard) thinking.

I'm not a NIMBY; front yard, back yard, fine by me, long as the royalty check shows up on time.

Personally, I'm not at all opposed to drilling in ANWR or CA/FL coastal waters; I'm pointing out that such a decision to prevent drilling there can be defended from a strategic, non-environmentalist point of view.

[smiley]

Not a bad investment…spend $15 billion and make back around $20 billion the first year. Makes for happy share holders.

And that is exactly why I think most investors are complete idiots.

Fixation on the short term and neglect of the long term is what got us in this problem in the first place. It is certainly not going to help us now.

Sure you could use the oil reserves now. Dig in like a kid with a candy jar. But realise that when it is gone it is gone. No more safety net.

I think that there will be times that you need these reserves a lot harder than you need them now.

[Duende]

MonteQuest wrote:

Only 17% ofour imported oil comes from the Middle east. Most of it comes from Canada and Mexico.

So, you mean $4 billion wouldn't go to those who hate us, right?

Well, actually I think Canadians do actually hate us too, sometimes. Maybe just not as much?

[nobodypanic]

Ease oil prices? When? Not today and not tomorrow…maybe never.

i am sure that you know that that really isn't the point. the point is to make money. and someone is going to make some. and i intend to position myself to get a share of it.

everything else is just a smoke screen to gain public support in order to 'crack' those reserves. sad, but there it is. invest accordingly.

[Dezakin]

Mods? Please cut and paste this overshoot exchange to the current die-off thread.

MQ

Mea Culpa; Next time I'll respond on topic in the appropriate thread.

[emersonbiggins]

{off topic posts moved to 6,000,000,000 die-off}

[ROCKMAN]

Thanks Snick,

I really don't like responding so sarcasticly...it's not my goal to fight or pretend I'm that much smarter than aytone else. I just loose patience sometimes. I'll make enough before I retire that I will be able to take care of me and mine no matter how bad the economy gets. But I grew up dirt poor and know that debilitating pain so it does bother me greatly to see where many may end up if PO hits us as bad as it might.

[ROCKMAN]

MonteQuest,

You do make a valid point about the source of much of oil imported oil. A minor and irrelavent point to the thrust of the debate but valid no less.

Congrats! You've got me on the ropes now.

[MonteQuest]

MonteQuest,

You do make a valid point about the source of much of oil imported oil. A minor and irrelavent point to the thrust of the debate but valid no less.

Congrats! You've got me on the ropes now.

The American people have been brainwashed to believe we are dependent upon Middle East oil countries that hate us.

They never mention Canada or Mexico, or even Venezuela.

Let's not help feed that disinformation.

[Homesteader]

To a person all my students believed we got all our from Saudi Arabia until they had one of my classes.

They don't even know we produce a significant amount of oil.

[AlexdeLarge]

Why would anybody drill it if we nationalized the profits? Oil companies aren't charities, they are in business to make a profit. Yeah, that nasty word...profit. I don't think that the shareholders of those companies would be too happy with their company spending billions of dollars for nothing.

Any other industries you think we should "nationalize" (read confiscate) the profits on?

I agree with you Snik. Sadly, with the next election, our new overlords and the rest of the baffoons in D.C are planning on leading us into the next workers paradise! Get ready for the new dictatorship of the proletariat.

[Snik]

Monte, since according to you most of us are going to die a slow painful death anyway, I don't know why you are even concerned with whether we drill anywhere or not. In fact, I fail to see the purpose of your posts at all since as far as I can tell you have absolutely no answers other than to say we're all basically screwed. I'm guessing you must be a survival shelter salesman or something....otherwise I can't figure out why you're wasting our time.

This "power down" business....I mean can you explain that to a poor ignorant southern boy? From what I've read it basically means reducing our lifestyles back to.....what, the stone age? Or are we allowed to live indoors? Plus reducing the population....why not a few H-bombs in India and China. Wouldn't that solve part of the problem? Or mandatory vasectomy's at puberty in any country with a positive population growth backed up with the threat of nuclear annihilation?

I have seen a lot of doomsday forecasts in my time, but fortunately there have always been enough dumb people that didn't know any better who have worked their butts off to keep those forecasts from coming true. If you're not part of the solution, what are you? Either fish or cut bait....otherwise get out of the boat.

Besides, you're ruining my Utopian view of the world.

[Snik]

MonteQuest,

You do make a valid point about the source of much of oil imported oil. A minor and irrelavent point to the thrust of the debate but valid no less.

Congrats! You've got me on the ropes now.

The American people have been brainwashed to believe we are dependent upon Middle East oil countries that hate us.

They never mention Canada or Mexico, or even Venezuela.

Let's not help feed that disinformation.

Venezuela? Get real. Have you heard any of Chavez's speeches about us? He's a commie crook, and most of the civilized world knows it. The only reason they put up with him is because of the oil he has....which he has just confiscated from the oil companies who found it.

[Fiddlerdave]

Why would anybody drill it if we nationalized the profits? Oil companies aren't charities, they are in business to make a profit. Yeah, that nasty word...profit. I don't think that the shareholders of those companies would be too happy with their company spending billions of dollars for nothing.

Any other industries you think we should "nationalize" (read confiscate) the profits on?

I agree with you Snik. Sadly, with the next election, our new overlords and the rest of the baffoons in D.C are planning on leading us into the next workers paradise! Get ready for the new dictatorship of the proletariat.

Ridiculous. There's plenty of talent that will research and drill on contract, with performance bonuses for finding oil. Given that much of the oil we use daily is found and produced in exactly this fashion shows it is possible. While some governments fail to invest enough to keep the oil flowing well, others do a fine job, and the same is true for private companies. There is no need to give away most of these resources to get the benefit for the country.

[MrBean]

If we don't wake up, in another generation we won't be producing or manufacturing much of anything here.

No, if we do wake up, we won't be producing or manufacturing much of anything ever again.

We will be living within limits.

Well said. I would add: if we do wake up, we will let Mother Nature do the producing and provide for us, and not attempt to better her anymore.

[MrBean]

This "power down" business....I mean can you explain that to a poor ignorant southern boy? From what I've read it basically means reducing our lifestyles back to.....what, the stone age? Or are we allowed to live indoors? Plus reducing the population....why not a few H-bombs in India and China. Wouldn't that solve part of the problem? Or mandatory vasectomy's at puberty in any country with a positive population growth backed up with the threat of nuclear annihilation?

Thing is, we really don't know what technologies are sustainable and what not - and in what time-perspective - the multiple co-dependencies are too complicated for science to ever handle. Is wind based electric grid sustainable in any case and if so, under which circumstances?

But of course there are multiple forms of very comfy sustainable housing, starting with tee-pee etc.

What I don't understand is those who wish to make die-off happen by consciouss acts instead of letting it happen naturally, if and when we refuse to live naturally.

[ROCKMAN]

You are right and wrong I think Fiddlerdave. Yes..plenty of talent out there like me. It doesn't matter who I invoice as long as they are ethical. I think Snik's point wasn't that there wouldn't be folks who would work for the gov't oil company but that the existing oil companies could not survive under such a plan. ExxonMobil et al are publicly owned companies. There is no EM family that gets the profits. The largest shareholders of all public oil companies are the pension/retirement funds. Ironic that the auto worker unions are one of the largest owners of Big Oil given what a hit they've taken on declining production of oue beloved gas guzzlers.

The public oil companies' valuations are based on growth of assets. If they were suddenly precluded from new drilling the stock values of millions of Americans would fall by trillions of $'s overnight. But that doesn't mean the US gov't couldn't form a competing oil company.

NOC's (national oil companies) do get a knock about their inefficiencies and incompetence. But you are right about their ability to achieve greatness when managed properly. The best example these days is Petrobras (Brazil). They are making great advances in the Deep Water play off of S. America. I won't be surprised if they become the biggest oil operator in the world in 10 years. But you must understand that they are a public company (though owned for the most part by the Braziliam gov't) and are run on the same business plan (i.e. profit) as ExxonMobil et al.

Could the US gov't duplicate Petrobras? I wish I could believe our fractured and contentious political system could do so but I must say I don't have faith in them. Both the R's and the D's (if you're at all curious I'm neither a R or a D) live off division. and that doesn't make for good corporate management.

But if I were made the Grand Puba of U.S.A. OIL it would be a tremendous success. And trust me...I wouldn't forget all you little people out there.