[Snik]

Primarily, that we don't know what the rate of oil decline will be.

Second, we are continung to try to find ways to replace the "phantom" sugar in our petri dish...furthering overshoot numbers for an even more resounding crash later with even greater collapse of the environment.

4.5% is the current decline of existing fields. Some believe it will be closer to 8% some say 2%.

Let's do some math using the Rule of 70 to determine doubling time.

70/4.5 = 15 1/2 years until oil production goes from peak to half of peak.

In todays numbers, that means 85 mbpd to 42.5 mbpd.

70/8% = 8 3/4 years.

70/2% = 35 years.

Everyone is hoping for the 2%.

Answer: No one knows.

These figures are so important to look at from time to time. We should always keep these projections in our minds as we consider "solutions."

Solutions? What are those? According to Monte we are in overshoot, and can't get out no matter what. Nature is going to take care of our little population problem at some point regardless of what we do. I can't even figure out why he bothers posting anything. It's like continually telling someone who is terminally ill over and over again that they are going to die. What's the point?

[MonteQuest]

What's the point?

Sorry it escapes you. Maybe you need to read a few more of my over 12,000 posts to get a handle on it?

Hmmm?

[MonteQuest]

BTW, according to the "principles of biology/ecology" we are in overshoot, not according to me.

Nature is going to take care of our little population problem at some point regardless of what we do.

Yes, even if we try to reduce the population. Too late for that.

But not too late to reduce carrying capacity devastation.

[Snik]

What's the point?

Sorry it escapes you. Maybe you need to read a few more of my over 12,000 posts to get a handle on it?

Hmmm?

Like I'm going to search through this whole board for your 12 thousand posts. Please.

I've read quite a few, and what I've seen is this:

1) We are in overshoot.
2) Billions are going to die
3) We need to get out of the way of diseases and quit trying save everyone (i guess so we can get it over with quicker?)
2) We can't get out of overshoot since we are already in it
3) We need to "power down" (no specifics there from what I've read....can't tell why we would want to do it anyway if we're already screwed)

What else?

[Snik]

But not too late to reduce carrying capacity devastation.

Ok, you have me there. I don't know what the earth's carrying capacity is. Just what is the carrying capacity of the earth? 1 billion? 1 million? 2?

[MonteQuest]

It's like continually telling someone who is terminally ill over and over again that they are going to die.

So, you admit we are terminally ill, then?

If not, then do you not think we may someday be?

Or do you think there are no limits?

[MonteQuest]

But not too late to reduce carrying capacity devastation.

Ok, you have me there. I don't know what the earth's carrying capacity is. Just what is the carrying capacity of the earth? 1 billion? 1 million? 2?

That's not the point about carrying capacity. Populations in overshoot decimate the carrying capacity when the species crashes, often to a point well below what the environment could have supported before the irruption. In our case, before fossil fuels.

We are going to do this if we don't address over-population. We will burn anything and kill anything to perpetuate our overshoot numbers.

What is the carrying capacity of earth? The leading experts say 2 to 3 billion max. Others say we need to be below the maximum to allow for bad years, otherwise, each year over the mximum reduces the carrying capacity and less can be supported the following year.

Others say we have already so lowered the carrying capacity due to overshoot, that 1 billion may be too many.

These studies take into account advance in technology, ecological prudence and a reduction in the standard of living to a sutainable level.

Others using energy as the only metric say 1 to 3 billion.

Others, using only food as a metric say 11 billion or more.

We are at 6.7 billion with a current growth rate of 1.16% that is rising from a low of 1.14% in 2004.

Using the Rule of 70, that means in 60 years we "could" double to 13.4 billion.

[Snik]

It's like continually telling someone who is terminally ill over and over again that they are going to die.

So, you admit we are terminally ill, then?

No, I didn't say that.

If not, then do you not think we may someday be?

Or do you think there are no limits?

I don't have 12000 posts. All you have to do is go up a few in this thread where I said there are "too damn many people". The problem is, I don't have an answer for how to get rid of a few bil without doing some pretty nasty stuff. You say to get out of the way of diseases. The way I read that is that we stop treating for everything from Hep C to AIDS to malaria to cancer to influenza to whatever. And, what I've said is that I am just not prepared to go that far. I just can't sit across from my wife or child or mother or any other loved one and tell them "Sorry, we're in overshoot, so even though we can cure what you have, you need to die".

That is not a solution. That is not human...at least the humans I know.

[AirlinePilot]

Wow, what a thread, just finished reading this tonight.

I've got one thing to say to the more "experienced posters here.....

I TOLD YOU SO.

It's happening fast and as oil goes through the ceiling and affects everyone's lives (like we have all been predicting for so long) your going to see this corny mindset from the majority of the population.

I'm with Rockman and Monte and all the other realists here. There is a better way. Hoping and wishing the status quo will remain is futile and probably detrimental to humanity moving forward with any hope of averting catastrophe.

Once youv'e pondered this question for a while it becomes crystal clear how monumentally fracked the human species already is. Yes we can probably do some things to mitigate what Monte has been talking about all along, but they will be unpopular, socially and morally frightening, but in the end necessary.

It always reminds me of the line in the movie Day after Tomorrow when the Scientist in the UK finds out about the modeling data. His realization is immediate and conclusive. When Dennis Quaid asks his learned advice his response is deadpan.....

"Save as many as you can".

I truly believe that is already where we are with this.

Drilling will happen, but we will soon know the fear and desperation we see out along the horizon. Drilling may buy us some tiny shreds of time but it cannot hold against the coming decline.

[MonteQuest]

It's like continually telling someone who is terminally ill over and over again that they are going to die.

So, you admit we are terminally ill, then?

No, I didn't say that.

Then why use that analogy?

The problem is, I don't have an answer for how to get rid of a few bil without doing some pretty nasty stuff.

Neither does Mother Nature.

You say to get out of the way of diseases. The way I read that is that we stop treating for everything from Hep C to AIDS to malaria to cancer to influenza to whatever. And, what I've said is that I am just not prepared to go that far. I just can't sit across from my wife or child or mother or any other loved on and tell them "Sorry, we're in overshoot, so even though we can cure what you have, you need to die".

Then you may lose them all if you acquiesce to nature.

That is not a solution. That is not human...at least the humans I know.

Nature could care less. To her, carrying capacity must trump ethics or morals.

In fact...

Probably the greatest obstacle to the scenario with the best chance of success (in my opinion) is the Western world’s unintelligent devotion to political correctness, human rights and the sanctity of human life. In the Darwinian world that preceded and will follow the fossil fuel era, these concepts were and will be meaningless.

That is our dilemma.

[Snik]

Ok, lay it on the table for us Monte. Specifically, what does get out of the way of diseases mean in your book?

[Homesteader]

Wow, what a thread, just finished reading this tonight.

I've got one thing to say to the more "experienced posters here.....

I TOLD YOU SO.

It's happening fast and as oil goes through the ceiling and affects everyone's lives (like we have all been predicting for so long) your going to see this corny mindset from the majority of the population.

I'm with Rockman and Monte and all the other realists here. There is a better way. Hoping and wishing the status quo will remain is futile and probably detrimental to humanity moving forward with any hope of averting catastrophe.

Once youv'e pondered this question for a while it becomes crystal clear how monumentally fracked the human species already is. Yes we can probably do some things to mitigate what Monte has been talking about all along, but they will be unpopular, socially and morally frightening, but in the end necessary.

It always reminds me of the line in the movie Day after Tomorrow when the Scientist in the UK finds out about the modeling data. His realization is immediate and conclusive. When Dennis Quaid asks his learned advice his response is deadpan.....

"Save as many as you can".

I truly believe that is already where we are with this.

Drilling will happen, but we will soon know the fear and desperation we see out along the horizon. Drilling may buy us some tiny shreds of time but it cannot hold against the coming decline.

+1

Hope is not a plan.

Personally I'm going to go give my wife a kiss and a hug and tell her how lucky I am to be going through life with someone who can handle the truth and doesn't feel entitled to the "american dream".

Snik, you have my sympathies, you really do.

[Snik]

Personally I'm going to go give my wife a kiss and a hug and tell her how lucky I am to be going through life with someone who can handle the truth and doesn't feel entitled to the "american dream".

Snik, you have my sympathies, you really do.

Don't need em, but thanks for the thought.

Oh, and no one, including me, is entitled to anything other than the right to pursue whatever dreams they may have. They are not entitled to have it....there is a difference. Remember ".....life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness"? It's part of a little document written a bit over 200 years ago.

[MonteQuest]

Ok, lay it on the table for us Monte. Specifically, what does get out of the way of diseases mean in your book?

Stop trying to save everyone.

Let our predators return, The biggest single factor in preventing sustained population growth has been infectious diseases. They were our human predator, and they helped to keep our population in check.

Disease can be looked upon as man’s keystone predator. “Keystone predator” is an ecological term used to describe the basic principle by which a predator may be a balancing force on an ecosystem. For this reason, special care must be taken with identified keystone predators to keep them from being hunted out of an ecosystem. Other than in some vials in a lab at the CDC, many of man’s keystone predators are extinct; others are of little consequence. Yes, we are no longer plagued with the evils of disease, but that was nature’s way of controlling our numbers and insuring a strong gene pool. Predators usually capture the old, crippled, sick, or very young animals. Very rarely are healthy adults caught and killed. In this way, only the strongest and healthiest animals are left to reproduce. Over long periods of time, predation actually improves the health of the prey population.

[Snik]

Ok, lay it on the table for us Monte. Specifically, what does get out of the way of diseases mean in your book?

Stop trying to save everyone.

Let our predators return, The biggest single factor in preventing sustained population growth has been infectious diseases. They were our human predator, and they helped to keep our population in check.

Disease can be looked upon as man’s keystone predator. “Keystone predator” is an ecological term used to describe the basic principle by which a predator may be a balancing force on an ecosystem. For this reason, special care must be taken with identified keystone predators to keep them from being hunted out of an ecosystem. Other than in some vials in a lab at the CDC, many of man’s keystone predators are extinct; others are of little consequence. Yes, we are no longer plagued with the evils of disease, but that was nature’s way of controlling our numbers and insuring a strong gene pool. Predators usually capture the old, crippled, sick, or very young animals. Very rarely are healthy adults caught and killed. In this way, only the strongest and healthiest animals are left to reproduce. Over long periods of time, predation actually improves the health of the prey population.

Just so I can be clear on this, I am guessing you are talking about things like Smallpox? That's the only one I can think of right off the top of my head that is actually "extinct"; the other ones that come to mind, like Polio, are largely under control, but not extinct.

[Homesteader]

Personally I'm going to go give my wife a kiss and a hug and tell her how lucky I am to be going through life with someone who can handle the truth and doesn't feel entitled to the "american dream".

Snik, you have my sympathies, you really do.

Don't need em, but thanks for the thought.

Oh, and no one, including me, is entitled to anything other than the right to pursue whatever dreams they may have. They are not entitled to have it....there is a difference. Remember ".....life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness"? It's part of a little document written a bit over 200 years ago.

The global consequences of your interpretation of that statement are plain to see. Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes, eh?

And no, I'm not a communist, socialist, or fascist.

FWIW, I have printed off a copy of the Constitution and filed it for safe-keeping in case the online stuff goes away. It is one of the great documents in history. Pity it isn't being adhered to today.

[MrBean]

Hope is not a plan.

Exactly. Faith, hope and love, and greatest of them is love.

[outcast]

Ok, lay it on the table for us Monte. Specifically, what does get out of the way of diseases mean in your book?

Stop trying to save everyone.

Let our predators return, The biggest single factor in preventing sustained population growth has been infectious diseases. They were our human predator, and they helped to keep our population in check.

Disease can be looked upon as man’s keystone predator. “Keystone predator” is an ecological term used to describe the basic principle by which a predator may be a balancing force on an ecosystem. For this reason, special care must be taken with identified keystone predators to keep them from being hunted out of an ecosystem. Other than in some vials in a lab at the CDC, many of man’s keystone predators are extinct; others are of little consequence. Yes, we are no longer plagued with the evils of disease, but that was nature’s way of controlling our numbers and insuring a strong gene pool. Predators usually capture the old, crippled, sick, or very young animals. Very rarely are healthy adults caught and killed. In this way, only the strongest and healthiest animals are left to reproduce. Over long periods of time, predation actually improves the health of the prey population.

Ok, so when you get injured or ill enough to die, don't get help. Just consider yourself to be part of the "excess population".

It's easy to promote these ideas when your ass isn't on the line.

[Ludi]

It's easy to promote these ideas when your ass isn't on the line.

His ass is on the line.

I have posted that I would not seek extraneous measures to prolong my life. No life support, treatments for cancer, organ transplants, heart surgery, etc. DNR for heart attack, etc.

[Homesteader]

Hope is not a plan.

Exactly. Faith, hope and love, and greatest of them is love.

Do you mean that Faith, hope and love = a plan?