Ludi wrote:MonteQuest wrote:Primarily, that we don't know what the rate of oil decline will be.
Second, we are continung to try to find ways to replace the "phantom" sugar in our petri dish...furthering overshoot numbers for an even more resounding crash later with even greater collapse of the environment.
4.5% is the current decline of existing fields. Some believe it will be closer to 8% some say 2%.
Let's do some math using the Rule of 70 to determine doubling time.
70/4.5 = 15 1/2 years until oil production goes from peak to half of peak.
In todays numbers, that means 85 mbpd to 42.5 mbpd.
70/8% = 8 3/4 years.
70/2% = 35 years.
Everyone is hoping for the 2%.
Answer: No one knows.
These figures are so important to look at from time to time. We should always keep these projections in our minds as we consider "solutions."
Solutions? What are those? According to Monte we are in overshoot, and can't get out no matter what. Nature is going to take care of our little population problem at some point regardless of what we do. I can't even figure out why he bothers posting anything. It's like continually telling someone who is terminally ill over and over again that they are going to die. What's the point?