MrBean wrote:A civilization in overshoot with civilized consumption habits does not yet necessarily mean population overshoot
But doesn't it seem like we need to look at the population as it actually is, not as if it were some other population? For instance, the reindeer on St Matthew Island were in overshoot because they depended on plants and their population grew so much they ate all the plants and lichens, and their population crashed suddenly. This is the classic example of overshoot and dieoff. Now, we could say that population were not in overshoot if they ate, for instance, rocks, or survived on nothing but seawater. But the fact is, those reindeer at plants.
If all or most of the population is living as civilized humans, and destroying their ecosystem (as we see with evidence from global warming, mass extinction, etc) as civilized humans (not as permaculture humans, who are hypothetical), because of availability of the resource oil, would we not say this population of humans (not just any humans, the humans we're actually talking about here in the real world) are in overshoot? It seems to me if a population overshoots carrying capacity to the point it is destroying its ecosystem, that population is in overshoot period, because that's the population we're actually talking about, not some hypothetical population.
Of course, I could be totally confused.
What do you think about the difference between the actual population and some hypothetical or fictional population?
I'm not totally convinced about the value of talking about the outcome of a fictional population when we're trying to talk about the outcome of the actual real population. I mean, there is certainly value in looking at different scenarios, but as far as planning, or getting ready for the future in some way, it seems to me (and this is just my personal opinion) it might be more valuable to stick to talking about the actual real population and not some fictional one, in the context of overshoot.
Of course, I may be wrong.