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PeakOil is You

Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 06 Jul 2008, 23:10:53

TonyPrep wrote:What we're doing is unsustainable, for a whole load of reasons. To get hung up on a particular use of words is missing the point. We don't appear to be able to stop what we're doing (including growing the population).
The point is that the population in and of itself, especially given it's recent behavior, isn't the problem. Like you said, unsustainable behavior is, and we can have that w/ 10 billion or 10 million.
TonyPrep wrote:It seems pretty irrelevant to start examining the minutiae of language, when that essential point is missed.
It does when the essential point is based on flawed reasoning and misrepresented data, and because of that incorrect.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 00:34:07

yesplease wrote: I mean in that example, even the authors go to the point of explicitly stating that appropriation is what we destroy/block from growth, but MQ turned that into consume.


Get thoroughly balled up in your semantic games.

The question still remains: "How much more food can we take from the other livings things on earth so we can continue "happy motoring."

We consume or appropriate too much already. Far more then our share.

That is the point.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 00:39:24

VMarcHart wrote: Monte suffers of selective fact-backing. Monte is 100% correct on facts that suit his views. Good luck presenting to him another possibility.


252 posts and you know my MO. LOL!

I am afraid I don't cherry-pick data to support my views. In fact, I don't make a habit of even posting my views very often.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 00:44:28

yesplease wrote:If we consume 40% of world NPP, or whatever it was he stated, then it lends credence to his whole die-off position, since we're so close to consuming all of what the Earth has and whatnot.


I don't have a die-off position. Biology does. And it needs no "credence" to be factual.

It's the way the world works.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 01:12:36

yesplease wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:It seems pretty irrelevant to start examining the minutiae of language, when that essential point is missed.
It does when the essential point is based on flawed reasoning and misrepresented data, and because of that incorrect.
It's irrelevant because you argue over words, not the essential point. Go ahead and dismiss population growth as a problem, because it's our behaviour that is the problem. Go ahead and dismiss our behaviour as the problem, because it's our numbers that is the problem. Either misses the point. It is both our behaviour and our numbers that are the problem.

That's why it's irrelevant to bring up strict meanings of words. I know you love to be exact with those meanings but, in the process, you add nothing of value to the discussion.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 02:16:14

MonteQuest wrote:
yesplease wrote: I mean in that example, even the authors go to the point of explicitly stating that appropriation is what we destroy/block from growth, but MQ turned that into consume.
Get thoroughly balled up in your semantic games.
I know, using facts and figures, pure semantics. Clearly, instead of critically analyzing the data we should warp it such that we feel it supports our arguments. :roll:
MonteQuest wrote:The question still remains: "How much more food can we take from the other livings things on earth so we can continue "happy motoring."
It certainly does. If you wish to discuss I hope you do so in a logical manner w/o resorting to manufactured "facts" and logical fallacies like you have in the past.
MonteQuest wrote:We consume or appropriate too much already. Far more then our share.

That is the point.
What exactly is our share?
Last edited by yesplease on Mon 07 Jul 2008, 02:33:08, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 02:29:42

MonteQuest wrote:252 posts and you know my MO. LOL!
An appeal to authority, instead of an ad hominem arguement, how original of you. :)
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 02:29:59

MonteQuest wrote:
yesplease wrote:If we consume 40% of world NPP, or whatever it was he stated, then it lends credence to his whole die-off position, since we're so close to consuming all of what the Earth has and whatnot.
I don't have a die-off position. Biology does.
Biology doesn't have a position. Any contention of such is anthropomorphization. Yet another logical fallacy.
MonteQuest wrote:And it needs no "credence" to be factual.
Because it isn't factual in the first place, it's a logical fallacy! :lol:
MonteQuest wrote:It's the way the world works.
No, it's the way you say the world works. If you were actually interested in the way the world works I doubt you would be butchering data in logical fallacies designed to proliferate your doomcopian ideals.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 02:33:48

TonyPrep wrote:It's irrelevant because you argue over words, not the essential point. Go ahead and dismiss population growth as a problem, because it's our behaviour that is the problem. Go ahead and dismiss our behaviour as the problem, because it's our numbers that is the problem. Either misses the point. It is both our behaviour and our numbers that are the problem.
I'm not dismissing either as the problem. I'm dismissing crude arguments based on mangled data and logical fallacies as to why they are problems, if they are problems.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 03:40:57

yesplease wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:It's irrelevant because you argue over words, not the essential point. Go ahead and dismiss population growth as a problem, because it's our behaviour that is the problem. Go ahead and dismiss our behaviour as the problem, because it's our numbers that is the problem. Either misses the point. It is both our behaviour and our numbers that are the problem.
I'm not dismissing either as the problem. I'm dismissing crude arguments based on mangled data and logical fallacies as to why they are problems, if they are problems.
You're implicitly dismissing them by concentrating on semantics. I don't recall your making a point of significance to this thread.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MrBean » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 06:54:29

Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP), the aggregate impact of land use on biomass available each year in ecosystems, is a prominent measure of the human domination of the biosphere. We present a comprehensive assessment of global HANPP based on vegetation modeling, agricultural and forestry statistics, and geographical information systems data on land use, land cover, and soil degradation that localizes human impact on ecosystems. We found an aggregate global HANPP value of 15.6 Pg C/yr or 23.8% of potential net primary productivity, of which 53% was contributed by harvest, 40% by land-use-induced productivity changes, and 7% by human-induced fires. This is a remarkable impact on the biosphere caused by just one species. We present maps quantifying human-induced changes in trophic energy flows in ecosystems that illustrate spatial patterns in the human domination of ecosystems, thus emphasizing land use as a pervasive factor of global importance. Land use transforms earth's terrestrial surface, resulting in changes in biogeochemical cycles and in the ability of ecosystems to deliver services critical to human well being. The results suggest that large-scale schemes to substitute biomass for fossil fuels should be viewed cautiously because massive additional pressures on ecosystems might result from increased biomass harvest.

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/31/12942.abstract

In other words, one form of human society (globalized consumerism) appropriates close to one quarter of all life on Earth - and growing. Clearly no sustainable, but hard to say what level of appropriation would be.

HANPP can be said to consist of two main factors, population number and consumption per capita, but this gets easily misleading. When talking about the population side of the equation, the usual reaction is to talk about need to limit population "elsewhere", e.g. in Africa and other places where population growth is still strong. Which of course would not affect anything in regards of HANPP, given that an African consumes only a tiny fraction of what an American consumes:

Roughly calculating, if global consumerism appropriates a quarter of life on Earth, then Americans alone, less than five percent of population, appropriate quarter of that, about 6% of all life on Earth.

If limiting population was the right and only answer, the logical thing would be to exterminate the parts of the population that consume the most, so that the "meek would inherit the world" after eating the rich. Well, not likely to happen, since the global elite of greediest lunatics (Americans etc.) are not only willing but also able to exterminate great numbers of those that consume the least, in order to keep on consuming as much as they can appropriate for themselves and then some.

All the talk about population numbers rarely consist of anything else but the greediest bastards blaming rest of humanity (that they oppress) for their own sins in fear of loosing their priviledges. Yada yada and boohoo.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby VMarcHart » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 08:40:57

MonteQuest wrote:252 posts and you know my MO. LOL!
It's not my 252 posts that describe your MO, but your 13,000 posts.
MonteQuest wrote:I am afraid I don't cherry-pick data to support my views. In fact, I don't make a habit of even posting my views very often.
You must be kidding!
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 13:05:09

TonyPrep wrote:You're implicitly dismissing them by concentrating on semantics. I don't recall your making a point of significance to this thread.
I'm dismissing them by concentrating on the actual facts and figures used by the sources being cited as well as the logical arguments, or lack thereof. Pointing out that someone has blatantly misrepresented data and consistently used logical fallacies to support their position isn't semantics, except in the most general sense, and in that case I suppose anything anyone says can mean anything, so lets call the whole thing off! We can all sit around making "significant points" with mangled data and logic that would embarass an elementary school child. ;) :lol:
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 14:40:21

yesplease wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:You're implicitly dismissing them by concentrating on semantics. I don't recall your making a point of significance to this thread.
I'm dismissing them by concentrating on the actual facts and figures used by the sources being cited as well as the logical arguments, or lack thereof. Pointing out that someone has blatantly misrepresented data and consistently used logical fallacies to support their position isn't semantics, except in the most general sense, and in that case I suppose anything anyone says can mean anything, so lets call the whole thing off! We can all sit around making "significant points" with mangled data and logic that would embarass an elementary school child. ;) :lol:
Hey, have you thought about the subject of this thread?
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 15:39:33

TonyPrep wrote:Hey, have you thought about the subject of this thread?
Apparently. Hey, I even asked you about it, and you failed to respond.
yesplease wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:Now that we've sorted all that out, yesplease, do you think technology will solve peak oil in the end? If so, why and how?
Depends what ya mean by solve. Could ya clarify that?
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 17:13:41

VMarcHart wrote:You must be kidding!


Not at all. Overshoot is straight from the book of known biology. You want to see my viewpoint on it, read the Montequest Scenario. One of the more moderate views.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 17:18:31

VMarcHart wrote: It's not my 252 posts that describe your MO, but your 13,000 posts.


So...you read them all? :roll:

I am afraid I have a pretty good reputation for not cherry-picking data to support my views. In fact, I like to include the cornys data as well. Drives home the point in spades.

I don't have to defend myself here.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby VMarcHart » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 19:53:57

MonteQuest wrote:I don't have to defend myself here.
Yet, you do it oftenly.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 23:32:08

yesplease wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:Hey, have you thought about the subject of this thread?
Apparently. Hey, I even asked you about it, and you failed to respond.
yesplease wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:Now that we've sorted all that out, yesplease, do you think technology will solve peak oil in the end? If so, why and how?
Depends what ya mean by solve. Could ya clarify that?
I'll take that as a no, then.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby Nicholai » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:15:04

I was having such a crappy night tonight.

I was reading through posts on the facebook group "Have you ever heard of Peak Oil?" and almost 99% of posts were harping about Cold Fusion and nuclear power and algae used to produce oil and Jesus Christ coming back to save us....etc. etc. It was just sad, really.

Then I came to this thread and read all of Monte's posts for a second time...all 47 pages. What a nice relief. So well explained. Such effort in each of his posts. Always well referenced. As objective as objective can be. Always a pleasure to read.

Thank you Monte. It's always appreciated. Keep up the good fight.
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