[idiom]

So in the event of a prolonged contraction how does the US avoid defaulting on its debt or entitlement or both?

Is there a tidy way to transition to a not-growth assuming economic system?

[DantesPeak]

I'm in a video too that can now be found on You Tube. This was from a British television program in 2005 that may be best described as being on the fringe at that time.

The final product was impressively put together. It was mostly about Iraq war, and its effects on the US dollar and oil supplies.

I state there that the dollar was likely heading for an eventual collapse in the video.

Here's the link: link

Shortonoil's post further above very well explains the position we are in, and why we are headed into economic collapse. The collapse of the dollar is just a side effect of trying to maintain a fiat Fed dollar system during a credit and economic collapse. It's possible all fiat currencies may eventually loose their functional value, except those mostly backed by some type of asset - such as gold.

Anyway the most immediate effect of the credit collapse will be wild monetary debasement and attempts to expand the money supply. They may succeed at first as wealth is drained from those countries with a surplus of natural resources or manufacturing ability back to the US and Europe. Later on, exporting countries will withhold goods and resources, causing a more serous and sustained economic collapse.

[cube]

I don't know why you want to barbecue us greenies. We are the ones who live practically debt free and were the prudent ones in this past 5 year fiesta of fools.
...

I think an important distinction needs to be made here.
I like to categorize environmentalists into 2 broad groups:
1) mainstream environmentalism M.E.
2) sustainability environmentalism S.E.
I have nothing against group 2)
It's group 1) that I have serious issues with.
What is M.E.? It's what you see promoted on TV.
The root of M.E. is the belief that we can continue to maintain our current standard of living while also being environmentally friendly.
The theory suggests that if we do things like all recycle, take public transit, and install some windmills then we'll save the planet.
That is a delusional fantasy and it is a radical departure from group 2).
What is S.E.? Try reading some of MonteQuest's posts on this forum. It's the belief the Earth has a natural carrying capacity and we are in serious "overshoot."
A lot of posters on this forum have much more in common with S.E. such as yourself Revi.

I consider myself more in line with S.E.
To be blunt M.E. and S.E. are a world apart.
Most of society falls into group 1).
You want proof?
Try talking to the average person IRL and tell them you think 75% of the world population will die-off and see the look on their face.

[cube]

BTW mainstream environmentalists M.E. are usually NOT prudent.
They tend to be very "consumerist" IMHO.

[Roccland]

The final product was impressively put together. It was mostly about Iraq war, and its effects on the US dollar and oil supplies.

I state there that the dollar was likely heading for an eventual collapse in the video.

Here's the link: link

Nice Dantes...I am watching it now, but don't tell Karl we went to Iraq for oil...
Shhhhhh...he still thinks it is about "extremists...WMD...democracy"...

[Roccland]

Is that you Dante around minute 36? the mystery man?

or did you write this book?

[Revi]

Excellent and very scary video. The petrodollar seems to me to be one of the best rationales for the Iraq war. What a crazy thing to do anyway. It's a miracle it worked for so long. The Iraq war just bought us a couple more years of happy motoring. A couple more years of borrowing from our children's future.

[kdenninger]

So in the event of a prolonged contraction how does the US avoid defaulting on its debt or entitlement or both?

Is there a tidy way to transition to a not-growth assuming economic system?

Oh no, its going to be quite messy.

But there's a huge difference between "messy" and "Mad Max".

Most of the POers are in the "Mad Max" camp in one form or another. I strenuously disagree with that assessment.

As for entitlements, they're finished. Not all at once, but with certainty, yes. That which can't be done won't be done.

The 900lb Gorilla is Medicare; we simply have to have an honest debate in America on sustainable health care paradigms, and what we have now isn't it. What we had in the 50s and 60s was, but that devolves down into "ordinary care is cheap and you buy it with money, extraordinary care is expensive and if you can't pay you don't get it. Help comes in the form of private charity (e.g. The Shriners)."

Economic growth is not necessarily dead. Neither is energy supply growth. There's absolutely nothing preventing us from building a mixture of breeder and pebble-bed reactors which are self-sustaining in their fuel requirements, other than the will to do so (there are NO technical or operational impediments to constructing as many of those as we have the will to put online), and with lots of high-quality energy (electricity) virtually anything else can be accomplished in the energy environment. Get all of our current electrical generation off fossil fuels and on nuclear.

Turning coal into liquid fuel is a problem that was technically solved by Germany during the war. We have plenty of transition fuel while we get large-scale aquaculture online to produce short-cycle liquid hydrocarbon fuels (e.g. biodiesel from aquaculture.) The latter is a ~20 year problem to get both developed and into large-scale production, but we have the ability to get there with what we have now.

Yes, there is a cost issue to both the interim and ultimately, but is this necessarily bad? Why not a hybrid compression-ignition / battery vehicle that can serve commuting on a plug basis and charge overnight, but has a compression ignition flex-fuel engine (runs on anything from gasoline to diesel and all in between, including kerosene and Jet-A, along with biodiesel, in any blend) to prevent the problem of running out of power? The CI engine is comparatively expensive to operate but if sized small will be very efficient and provides cross-country capability, while remaining "off" for short-run and commuter driving.

One key is getting rid of spark-ignition engines in OTR vehicles, as that also paves the way for short-cycle sustainable fuel products. They are horribly inefficient at low and moderate power operation due to throttling losses; a diesel beats them on that basis by 20-30%, and that's an instantaneous reduction in consumption. Fuel oil also has more BTUs in it than does gasoline per gallon which contributes to even more efficiency per gallon, but not necessarily per unit of energy input. There is nothing, once again, technically preventing flex-fuel CI engines; in fact, the military solved THAT problem in the 1960s and for some time had trucks that would run on any mixture of gasoline, jet, kerosene and #2.

[Roccland]

There is nothing, once again, technically preventing flex-fuel CI engines; in fact, the military solved THAT problem in the 1960s and for some time had trucks that would run on any mixture of gasoline, jet, kerosene and #2.

Hey Karl - state workers in Cali just got a serious pay cut...home debtors are foreclosing at levels NEVER seen before (no tax revs)...public pools where I am are closing to save money.

Where exactly are the dollars gonna come from for all these neat tricks?

Don't say private...cuz even private funds don't have 100 trillion to put up.

Naw karl - you are dreaming.

We at at war with two and soon to be three (maybe 4) countries to grab the oil.

THAT IS A FACT JACK.

Your dreams about jailing CFOs, CEOs, COOs of big banks...your dreams of pebble reactors...CTL...corn ethanol (more of a nightmare) nuclear...are just dumbass happy talk.

Shit ain't gonna change - your vote does not count...your voice does not count and your faxes do not count.

Get real Karl.

You are doing ALL your readers a disservice by pumping up this horse shit.

Really bro.

Wake the fuck up.

[kdenninger]

Blah blah blah the world is coming to and end hide in the ground!

Ok dude. Do what you want.

But then... why are you here on a computer posting on the Internet? Shouldn't you be digging your bunker?

Oh, and if you're right, what good will gold do you? Can you eat it? Screw it? Heat with it? You think you can sell it? Uh, who needs it? Electronics and dental work are the only UTILITY values it has, and neither of those is going to be worth jack.

I don't buy the Mad Max scenario. Yeah, I know, its coming. That's what they said with Y2K too, and my power stayed on.

How about yours?

[threadbear]

So in the event of a prolonged contraction how does the US avoid defaulting on its debt or entitlement or both?

Is there a tidy way to transition to a not-growth assuming economic system?

Oh no, its going to be quite messy.

But there's a huge difference between "messy" and "Mad Max".

Most of the POers are in the "Mad Max" camp in one form or another. I strenuously disagree with that assessment.

As for entitlements, they're finished. Not all at once, but with certainty, yes. That which can't be done won't be done.

The 900lb Gorilla is Medicare; we simply have to have an honest debate in America on sustainable health care paradigms, and what we have now isn't it. What we had in the 50s and 60s was, but that devolves down into "ordinary care is cheap and you buy it with money, extraordinary care is expensive and if you can't pay you don't get it. Help comes in the form of private charity (e.g. The Shriners)."

Economic growth is not necessarily dead. Neither is energy supply growth. There's absolutely nothing preventing us from building a mixture of breeder and pebble-bed reactors which are self-sustaining in their fuel requirements, other than the will to do so (there are NO technical or operational impediments to constructing as many of those as we have the will to put online), and with lots of high-quality energy (electricity) virtually anything else can be accomplished in the energy environment. Get all of our current electrical generation off fossil fuels and on nuclear.

Turning coal into liquid fuel is a problem that was technically solved by Germany during the war. We have plenty of transition fuel while we get large-scale aquaculture online to produce short-cycle liquid hydrocarbon fuels (e.g. biodiesel from aquaculture.) The latter is a ~20 year problem to get both developed and into large-scale production, but we have the ability to get there with what we have now.

Yes, there is a cost issue to both the interim and ultimately, but is this necessarily bad? Why not a hybrid compression-ignition / battery vehicle that can serve commuting on a plug basis and charge overnight, but has a compression ignition flex-fuel engine (runs on anything from gasoline to diesel and all in between, including kerosene and Jet-A, along with biodiesel, in any blend) to prevent the problem of running out of power? The CI engine is comparatively expensive to operate but if sized small will be very efficient and provides cross-country capability, while remaining "off" for short-run and commuter driving.

One key is getting rid of spark-ignition engines in OTR vehicles, as that also paves the way for short-cycle sustainable fuel products. They are horribly inefficient at low and moderate power operation due to throttling losses; a diesel beats them on that basis by 20-30%, and that's an instantaneous reduction in consumption. Fuel oil also has more BTUs in it than does gasoline per gallon which contributes to even more efficiency per gallon, but not necessarily per unit of energy input. There is nothing, once again, technically preventing flex-fuel CI engines; in fact, the military solved THAT problem in the 1960s and for some time had trucks that would run on any mixture of gasoline, jet, kerosene and #2.

It's possible that the biggest entitlement programs like the military and agricultural subsidies will be sharply reduced, and new ones will evolve. A very basic form of medical care, a self funding one, initiated by the feds might be one of them.

[roccman]

Blah blah blah the world is coming to and end hide in the ground!

Ok dude. Do what you want.

But then... why are you here on a computer posting on the Internet? Shouldn't you be digging your bunker?

Oh, and if you're right, what good will gold do you? Can you eat it? Screw it? Heat with it? You think you can sell it? Uh, who needs it? Electronics and dental work are the only UTILITY values it has, and neither of those is going to be worth jack.

I don't buy the Mad Max scenario. Yeah, I know, its coming. That's what they said with Y2K too, and my power stayed on.

How about yours?

Blackberry post.

Karl - I could give a rip if you believe or not in mad max.

You should read Dr. Richard Duncan's Olduvai Cliff Theory

You should read William Catton's Overshoot

You should read Richard Heinberg's The Party Is Over

Matt Simmons - Twilight in the Desert

Jay Han's - www.dieoff.com

You should read what is currently being written about methane releases in the Siberian permafrost.

You should read about what teh Dept of Ag has to say about food stocks this year.

Or what is happening with the Cantarell Oil Complex.

After you have read some more...then you can feel justifed in your opinion...right now you are shooting off at the mouth about the way YOU THINK THE TAPE SHOULD ACT.

Newsflash Karl...trade the tape that is given to you not the one you wish upon a star on.

And BTW - I have two fully stocked bunkers in the ground and I am in the process of receiving title on a third ranch to bury a third bunker.

You want pictures...root around here - I have posted them.

I suggest you do less talking about how you think the world should be and more reading.

Savvy?

[cube]

To: kdenninger

I have serious issues with people who basically say, "If we remove part A from the system and replace it with part B then we can increase efficiency by X%.....wham bam just like that. Easy as pie."
*delicate cough*
The world does not work that way.
Every important decision that was ever made had to take into account a basket of different variables. It annoys me seriously when somebody steps in and *tries* to reduce a complex system with a dirty dozen different variables into a single dimensional variable and say, "see how easy that is.......I'm smarter then the engineers who designed the fracking system!"

Congratulations kdenninger you've just lost a massive amount of credibility in my eyes.
I am willing to give second chances, but as the old saying goes in life:
"....hard to gain, easy to lose...."

welcome to board

[Revi]

I think that cultures go down the same way they came up. We'll believe in some magic fix like nuclear (or should I say nuculur) or fusion, when the reality is that we are all going back to a village economy if we're lucky. We may never get the big fixes done because of diminishing horizons. We are broke, and the way to fix that is to stop spending money on things that don't work.

We could get back to an economy where we all live simply and make things to trade to eachother, if we were all willing to do that.

Most people are too interested in blaming "greenies" or trying to win the powerball or buying a wave runner to pay any attention to the idea of saving this society.

We're trying to make order out of chaos.

I like to pretend it's possible, but I'm not so sure.

[patience]

kdenninger,

I agree that there are any number of means that could improve our future energy situation, and I agree that as a nation we lack the political will to do much of anything. Which leaves me with personal responsibility to first secure my family's future as best I can, and second, to advocate for all possible improvements for the future.

From what I've seen of the results of US political will in hindsight and J6P's current mindset, I can't have much confidence in large scale mitigation efforts for our energy problems, any more than our financial problems. That doesn't look too good for the future. Solutions are of value only if they are put to use, right?

[Roccland]

Most people are too interested in blaming "greenies" or trying to win the powerball or buying a wave runner to pay any attention to the idea of saving this society.

Yeah Russia must be having the same problem with greenies...

Quote:
MOSCOW — The Russian oil boom, which has produced a gusher of cash, political power and an opulent elite — and has helped fuel the country's renewed assertiveness in Georgia and elsewhere — is on shakier ground than officials in Moscow would like to admit.

Most of the oil produced after the country's 1998 financial collapse has come from drilling and re-drilling old Soviet oil fields with more advanced equipment — squeezing more black gold out of the same ground — and efforts to develop new fields have been slow or non-existent.

That strategy is potentially disastrous, said Valery Kryukov, who researches oil companies in western Siberia for a government-funded think tank.

"If the situation which exists now stays the same, oil production will start to decline seriously in two years," Kryukov said in a phone interview from his offices in the city of Novosibirsk.

And communist China...

And India...

And and and...

The greenies are coming the greenies are coming.

Karl really needs to either 1) STFU or 2) read.

But hey - when we have a complete and utter systemic implosion of global economies...who is gonna care about oil...but don't say this was by design cuz karl will try to ban you...from here...

And Karl will sit back and say - see - told ya so.

You know it's gonna happen.

Speaking of taking action to prepare for this perfect storm.

There was a guy that use to post over at TF - "Photoguy"...

Now karl is gonna jump in and of course and tell me that I am wrong about what happened to Photoguy...so to preempt this... suffice to say Photoguy does not post at TF anymore...ban...?? Maybe...

Anyway this poster was well into the mad max camp...about a year and 1/2 ago he was run off the site -

Today - as things get progressively worse - from time to time - you will see a poster say something like "this is getting photoguy bad"...

The reason I bring this up - is again - karl has no patience for alternative views...ZERO...you don't agree with him...you are run off the site by his posse of brain numb day traders.

Does not matter.

This perfect storm is happening today...

It will be "photoguy" bad.

[DantesPeak]

Is that you Dante around minute 36? the mystery man?

or did you write this book?

The book is from PO poster petrodollar.

I am the mystery person.

The narrator communicated my ideas and concepts extremely well.

I talked about PO, but they left that part out.

[shortonoil]

kdenninger wrote:

Most of the POers are in the "Mad Max" camp in one form or another. I strenuously disagree with that assessment.

The Available Energy model is not a Mad Max scenario. It predicts that by 2025 the average American will be living a standard of living commensurable with his predecessor of 1915. He will be poor!

As far as building nukes, or tearing down the Rockies to fuel our future happy motoring ways, these have all been discussed ad infinitum on these forums. To take several books of information and compress it into one sentence, “yes we could.” We could - if we had started on the project 30 years ago.

[kdenninger]

kdenninger wrote:

Most of the POers are in the "Mad Max" camp in one form or another. I strenuously disagree with that assessment.

The Available Energy model is not a Mad Max scenario. It predicts that by 2025 the average American will be living a standard of living commensurable with his predecessor of 1915. He will be poor!

As far as building nukes, or tearing down the Rockies to fuel our future happy motoring ways, these have all been discussed ad infinitum on these forums. To take several books of information and compress it into one sentence, “yes we could.” We could - if we had started on the project 30 years ago.

Well then go hide in the bunker.

Those of us who disagree with this approach will do what we can to make things better.

Since that seems to be the consensus view here - "we're screwed and there's nothing we can do about it other than stock our bunkers", the next obvious question is why you bother playing circle jerk on an internet forum?

If the problem cannot be solved, and we're headed back to 1900 as a nation, what are you doing here?

It seems to me that what you're engaged in is called "proof by assertion", where you reinforce one another's beliefs and shout down those who say it can't be different.

In my view that's a waste of time, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion.

I'll leave 'ya to it - have fun.

[AlexdeLarge]

And BTW - I have two fully stocked bunkers in the ground and I am in the process of receiving title on a third ranch to bury a third bunker

We have been a busy Hobbit! It looks like you have traded the McMansion for the McBunker. You are the UberDoomer!

I think the forces of Mordor will find you anyway.......no matter how deep you dig.