[Roccland]

And BTW - I have two fully stocked bunkers in the ground and I am in the process of receiving title on a third ranch to bury a third bunker

We have been a busy Hobbit! It looks like you have traded the McMansion for the McBunker. You are the UberDoomer!

I think the forces of Mordor will find you anyway.......no matter how deep you dig.

I currently live under this:

[nobodypanic]

It seems to me that what you're engaged in is called "proof by assertion", where you reinforce one another's beliefs and shout down those who say it can't be different.

In my view that's a waste of time, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion.

I'll leave 'ya to it - have fun.

that's completely unfair. the man just offered you a look at his methodology and calculations. refute the math! isn't that a refrain i've heard from you before? well go ahead, refute the numbers--otherwise, it's you who are providing proof by assertion.

by the way, i am not saying short is completely correct, although i agree w/the general concept.

[shortonoil]

kdenninger said:

Well then go hide in the bunker.

Those of us who disagree with this approach will do what we can to make things better.

I never insinuated that I intend to hide in a bunker, although I can see why some here would think it is a good idea. Actually, I plan on doing very, very well in the upcoming melee. I have a good understanding of what is coming, why, how and when it will get here. Of course those who insist on hanging on to old broken down, now obsolete methodology and paradigms will be in for a rude awaking.

Those who think that they can remain upright in their present position on the tails of a declining empire, and a changing civilization, need to be a little more attentive to the lessons of history!

[shortonoil]

nobodypanic said:

by the way, i am not saying short is completely correct, although i agree w/the general concept.

Ok NBP, if you have got any good ideas on this subject come over to the Available Energy thread and let's hear them. If I am wrong I would rather know about it now; not after the lights have gone out!

[idiom]

I am a happy camper in New Zealand, so this is largely esoteric for me. The Die-off will happen to all the nice people I knew on the internet.

I really can't see America getting it together. Any Individuals who manage to do something positive will get shut down or leached to death by the rest. I can see parts of the states devolving into Somalia type situations very easily. I still think you could do a lot to avert disaster, but you won't. The fact that I am not a tin-foiler makes me more of a doomer. I see failed attempts to deal with traditional things like blackouts and hurricanes and I assign it to collective incompetence, not malicious shadow governments. If you think America can get it together then you are a Tin Foiler.

But I don't see every-one dying in a hard die-off, not unless some-one pushes the big red button.

And yeah there are greenies who are do see a die-off as a huge step forward.

[shortonoil]

idiom said:

I am a happy camper in New Zealand, so this is largely esoteric for me. The Die-off will happen to all the nice people I knew on the internet.

Die-off? Asia maybe, let’s hope not, but it is sort of an Asian tradition. North America, no way. New Zealand - where’s that at?

[cube]

...
The reason I bring this up - is again - karl has no patience for alternative views...ZERO...you don't agree with him...you are run off the site by his posse of brain numb day traders.
....

holy sh!t you're right, Roccland!

Just by reading this thread, I see Karl behaving exactly like you just said.
Notice how Karl lashes out at shortonoil and calls him names?
Karl doesn't bother to say, "I disagree with your opinion and here are my points to back up my position: a, b, c,...."
nadda, zip zilch
Just an ad hominem, Mad Max attack.

Congratulations Karl / kdenninger you've lost even more credibility.

[MrBill]

Wow, this has been one of the nastiest threads I have read in ages here. Not something to be proud about. However, I have to address shortonoil's description of debt backed fiat currencies.

P / P + I does not require unlimited economic growth to pay back debt lent into existance in order to pay interest on that debt.

P / P + I does require economic output over time to pay back P + I as I represents interest or the time value of money.

P / P + I does not denote that all P created plus I has to be paid back simultaneously, so the same 'money' created can be used many times to pay back P & I over various time horizons. Say a monthly interest payment on a mortgage plus principle repaid over time that comes from a semi-weekly paycheque that is paid for when a company makes a profit.

Financial systems like any system require inputs. So although unlimited growth is not only not possible, but it is not necessary, but perpetual growth is needed. Due to entropy any system that stops growing via inputs (energy) soon starts to die (disorder).

Financial systems are the same whether you use a fiat currency or gold as your money. The definition of money is simply any asset that is used as a reference price for transactions in other less liquid assets. Money or gold have no intrinsic value. They trade in value relative to all other assets (or physical commodities).

The misunderstanding is that the economy has to constantly expand to pay back debt. It does not have to and recessions, depressions and economic collapses are evidence that this does happen. However, the economy does have to keep producing goods and services otherwise not only will the economy collapse, but there will be die-off.

Unlimited growth is a farmer's field where more and more inputs are used to raise yields from 50, 100, 200... bushels per acre. Clearly, eventually the yields become parabolic and unsustainable.

Perpetual growth is a farmer's field where inputs are used to sustainably produce yields of 50 bushels per acre year after year after year, so the output over time is 50, 100, 150, 200...

Without inputs of fertilizer (organic or inorganic), seeds, labor, energy, etc. neither unlimited or perpetual growth are possible. All systems require fresh inputs to produce output. But that argument does not mean that P / P + I requires unlimited growth or this or that fiat currency will by its design collapse.

I would argue that fiat currencies collapse when the output of goods and services no longer supports the repayment of P + I on a macro-level. But even after an economic collapse that makes a fiat currency no longer valued as money another currency (or another asset) can take its place for the purposes of trade and valuation. The farmer's land and its productive capacity are what matter. Not in which form of money (or currency) output is measured or valued.

Post peak oil resource depletion will affect the value of all assets relative to one another. Not just the value of the currency or the ability to service P / P + I. Post peak oil resource depletion mean less economic output and falling living standards, unless economical alternatives are found. That is where EROEI becomes very important as well as what is sustainable in the long-run or not. Anything that is defined as non-sustainable must come to an end sooner or later. Whether you use a fiat currency backed by all assets in the economy or gold as your currency does not change EROEI or sustainability issues.

[NWMossBack]

Since that seems to be the consensus view here - "we're screwed and there's nothing we can do about it other than stock our bunkers"

Not true in my opinion, though you are excused for believing so since this site seems to have been overrun lately by noisy children with nothing better to do with their days.

[shortonoil]

estimated the obligations of the US to be actually $99.2 trillion, 50 % higher than Kotlikoff’s figures.

Darryl Schoon :
But, of course, they won’t and the now privately controlled US government will continue to indebt the American public so insiders can continue to profit immensely at the public trough. But the question still remains, how will the US pay its unpayable debt? The answer is as clear as it is obvious. It won’t because it can’t.

Schoon

Karl seems to want to deny the obvious that there is no way, even in a growing economy, that the US could repay the debt obligations it presently has. In a declining PO economy - the idea is absurd!

But we run into this all time, don't we?

[shortonoil]

MrBill said:

However, I have to address shortonoil's description of debt backed fiat currencies.

P / P + I does not require unlimited economic growth to pay back debt lent into existance in order to pay interest on that debt.

and.............etc.

This is true - IF - you attach one condition which is an assumption; one that I didn’t make. That is, IF, the principal is retired at the end of the loan period. Unfortunately, we have not performed that requirement since the Spanish, American War!

The interest has been rolled into the principle each year for the last 100?? years. New bonds have been issued to cover that expenditure. Obviously, the accumulated interest is at some time more than the new debt acquired; thus not enough new currency comes into existence to service it. It collapses.

This seems to be the ultimate fate of fiat currencies in general. Our actions have hardly been different from any other.

[Roccland]

estimated the obligations of the US to be actually $99.2 trillion, 50 % higher than Kotlikoff’s figures.

Darryl Schoon :
But, of course, they won’t and the now privately controlled US government will continue to indebt the American public so insiders can continue to profit immensely at the public trough. But the question still remains, how will the US pay its unpayable debt? The answer is as clear as it is obvious. It won’t because it can’t.

Schoon

Karl seems to want to deny the obvious that there is no way, even in a growing economy, that the US could repay the debt obligations it presently has. In a declining PO economy - the idea is absurd!

But we run into this all time, don't we?

Karl really believes all his energy making tricks are gonna work.

And when they don't...it's all the greenies fault.

Overshoot is not in karl's vocabulary.

[patience]

Much has been written to the effect that economies will be hamstrung in a depression without freely available fossil energy to "grow" economies out of it. In the US, we are further debilitating ourselves by junking out our factories.

Over the past 5+ years in business, I have received 2 or more auction notices a month for factory closings. The latest was a 3 day auction at Dayton, Ohio for the assets of a Delphi parts plant, the ex-GM Delco Moraine brake plant. I get several auction notices a month for machine shops, riggers, welding shops, sheet metal fab (this week, Lexington, KY), CNC shops, etc.. So, who buys it all? Can't say who (I don't see any new factories opening here), but a vast amount of it is going to steel scrapyards, where it is torched up and dumped in barges in Louisville, KY, fitted with an ocean-going cover, and shipped to China, to be melted down and sold back to us as cheap hydaulic jacks, BBQ grills, and other misc. junk.

Let's say that the US somehow, after some years of downturn, manages to get competitive with the rest of the world for labor rates. What businesses will we start? It will be tough to restart manufacturing, once the capital equipment has been melted down to make toys. The US steel industry is a shadow of its' former self, and as the auto industry winds down here, that looks to get worse. US Defense plants, like Naval Ordnance, in Louisville, KY, and the powder plant (Navy shells) in Charles town, IN, (closed down) are much less than they were in size and scope in this area. Heavy industry is almost gone in my area.

Light industry is drying up, too, and being junked out. The list around here is long, but includes Tokheim gasoline pumps, a doorbell mfr., Tecumseh Products (lawnmower transaxles), numerous furniture plants, and a Reliance electric motor plant. Factories empty, jobs gone, equipment gone, and many of the buildings are gone.

Is the future of the US to be only agricultural? Oh, yeah, the International Harvester plant in Louisville, closed back in the 1970's. There are as many foreign made tractors around, or more, than domestic made. We don't have the manufacturing capacity to serve our own needs now, let alone fight wars in several countries. So, is it possible to restart the US economy in a PO future? I don't think so, at least nothing like what it has been.

afterthought: Maybe the "dieoff" will take care of the problem.

[shortonoil]

Roccland said:

Karl really believes all his energy making tricks are gonna work.

I don’t think he is particularly unusual. In my book I refer to as the “Fictitious Fantasy Realities Syndrome”. It is when one believes that anything that they image can come true. It is ubiquitous in our society.

[DantesPeak]

Ok, I get it. I won't be visiting the TF anytime soon, so let's get back to the subject.

Whether the US has $50 trillion or $100 trillion in unfunded accrued liabilities at this time does not matter. 10 years from now, the US may have $1,000 trillion in liabilities - more or less - unless the fiat Federal Reserve dollar is dumped along the way. That's probably likely at some point, and the main reason why I think the end of the dollar will come through hyperinflation of some sort.

Essentially what I am saying is at some point in our future the US will repudiate its debts. If there wasn't a depression by that point, there will be a terrible one following that. The main reason being that the US then will no longer be able to borrow incredible sums to buy imported energy.

[Roccland]

Roccland said:

Karl really believes all his energy making tricks are gonna work.

I don’t think he is particularly unusual. In my book I refer to as the “Fictitious Fantasy Realities Syndrome”. It is when one believes that anything that they image can come true. It is ubiquitous in our society.

Book?

[shortonoil]

DantesPeak said:

Essentially what I am saying is at some point in our future the US will repudiate its debts. If there wasn't a depression by that point, there will be a terrible one following that. The main reason being that the US then will no longer be able to borrow incredible sums to buy imported energy.

Even at today’s sale prices of $115/b, foreign crude is costing us $690 billion a year in current account loses. Our inability to purchase foreign oil may not have to wait until there is a complete financial meltdown. Our inability to purchase oil could in fact be the primary reason for the collapse. Losing a couple million barrels a day would probably precipitate it. That much will soon be lost from Mexico.

[MadScientist]

Losing a couple million barrels a day would probably precipitate it. .

I'm not so sure. We've already lost 1 Mb/d and havent even seriously begun to cut back. I'm pretty sure the US could drop another 2M b/d simply by trimming fat (excess, inefficient driving mainly).

Eagerly awaiting the next price spike to test my theory. We need that "wakeup call" sooooo bad. A firm slap upside Joe six pack's head to knock him out of his petroslumber.

Patience- Your point about loss of manufacturing in the US sounds good to a point. Consider how many of those factories are relics of the oil age though- built with oil, run with oil, producing goods largely dependant on oil. We need a new paradigm based on manpower.