[Cashmere]

China central banks cutting rates . . .

[jbrovont]

ouch.

[bl00k]

Suggested name for BofA/ML amalgam: Lynch America.

[jbrovont]

The mega-rich have probably been prepared for this for a while and have hard assets outside the real estate backed realm. The other executives making a few million a year that *thought* they were rich, are going to get crushed in the gears of the meltdown along with everyone else.

Cheney for instance began exporting his entire portfolio as far back as 2005. It was no secret to those involved what was coming down the pike - I think there's actually a thread on here about that.

I realize this is Small Potatoes in the grand scheme of things, but consider here what just happenned to the Condo market on the Upper East Side of NY and out in the Hamptons.

Overnight, quite a few stockbrokers making 6 or 7 figures just lost their jobs. One also has to suspect they hold most of their personal wealth in the form of the same kind of crap they were selling. In any event, they aren't making 6 figures tomorrow, and one suspects also they have mortgage payments due on the condo and the beach house. If they put them up for sale tomorrow, who is gonna buy them, and who could get a mortgage to buy them? How long do you suppose these folks will be sitting tight and hunkering down in the Townhouse? When do they send in the Jingle Mail and head off in the Yacht to Europe assuming they have part of their investments in Euros?

I'm trying to figure out how the mega rich are going to try to escape this whole thing. Any ideas here?

Reverse Engineer

[Cashmere]

Anybody notice that Drudge linked the exact same page as I linked at the top of this thread?

Hey Matt, how about a call out for Cashmere?

[Cashmere]

CNN.com breaking.

Ouch, that is a really really big number.

The real interesting question is, "what are their assets worth?"

In their May 08 statement, Lehman had their total assets listed as 640 billion, with 564 billion as "long term investments".

In February, the numbers were 786 and 695, which means Lehman wrote down/divested almost 130 billion in "long term investments" in 3 months.

I'm dying to know what their current 564 or so "long term investments are worth."

It is entirely possible that they're 50 cents on the dollar (my guess), and that would mean a loss of 350 billion.

350 billion.

Big big number if my 50 cents on the dollar is close.

[Specop_007]

I'm actually more interested in the Merrill Lynch deal. While its a drop in the bucket compared to Lehman, no one has mentioned ML at any time in the past I was aware of. Seems to have come out of nowhere. Granted the impact of BoA buying ML is a fart in a hurricane to Lehman.

On the Lehman issue though I read this on Yahoo....

The bankruptcy petition makes Lehman the largest and highest-profile casualty of the global credit crisis that began more than a year ago.

I thought Fannie and Freddie were the largest? How damn big is Lehman?? Bigger then JP Morgan even?

Oh well, go WaMu go!! Thats my horse baby! Putting all my chips on red 23 and let the ball spin!

[ReverseEngineer]

CNN.com breaking.

Ouch, that is a really really big number.

The real interesting question is, "what are their assets worth?"

In their May 08 statement, Lehman had their total assets listed as 640 billion, with 564 billion as "long term investments".

In February, the numbers were 786 and 695, which means Lehman wrote down/divested almost 130 billion in "long term investments" in 3 months.

I'm dying to know what their current 564 or so "long term investments are worth."

It is entirely possible that they're 50 cents on the dollar (my guess), and that would mean a loss of 350 billion.

350 billion.

Big big number if my 50 cents on the dollar is close.

Now you know why it was such a Hot Potato

50 cents on the dollar is outrageously generous. On similar toxic debt, Merrill sold at 23 cents on the dollar, and that was before the crisis really spun out of control. No more than 10 cents on the dollar for anything Lehman. I would say you are looking at a loss here of $500B minimum. Just Lehman. Wait until Goldman goes down.

Reverse Engineer

[wisconsin_cur]

Lets try to keep the Lehman's news to one thread...

[marq=left]Topics merged by wisconsin_cur[/marq]

[Ang]

Lets try to keep the Lehman's news to one thread...

[marq=left]Topics merged by wisconsin_cur[/marq]

Agreed

[Starvid]

Remember how I speculated just a few days ago that with the bailout of F&F we had hit the bottom?

I woz wrong.

[ReverseEngineer]

Remember how I speculated just a few days ago that with the bailout of F&F we had hit the bottom?

I woz wrong.

Nohing to be ashamed of. Any time you prognosticate and make a bet, you could be wrong. I have been wrong many times.

So far however, since joining the board here, I am doing EXTRAORDINARILY well I caught Gustav early on, caught Lehman early, and caught Ike early. So far, all my DOOM predictions are doing well. Go Long on RE Predictions

Reverse Engineer

[shortonoil]

Reverse Engineer said:

I'm trying to figure out how the mega rich are going to try to escape this whole thing. Any ideas here?

Unless they have gold and spare gas for the boat, they don’t. In about seven days the real SHTF. “Escape for New York”, could turn out to be a little more than a movie!

[IndigoMoon]

Reverse Engineer said:

I'm trying to figure out how the mega rich are going to try to escape this whole thing. Any ideas here?

Unless they have gold and spare gas for the boat, they don’t. In about seven days the real SHTF. “Escape for New York”, could turn out to be a little more than a movie!

shortonoil,
Would you mind expanding on that? Why about 7 days? I'm trying to follow everything going on, but this statement lost me for some reason. Thanks!

[Byron100]

Looking at the market just now, it's only down by 175, and appears to be climbing. So what gives? Do people think that the demise of Lehman really isn't the end of the world after all?

As much as I like my doomer porn, I don't think the big crash will come until several things happen: People lose their jobs. People stop spending. People defaulting on CC's at massive rates. Housing prices falling another 15-20%.

Then, just maybe, we'll be looking at financial Armageddon. Until then, the only blood we'll be seeing will be on Wall Street, and I don't see too much of that at the moment.

But then again, this is my 666th post...so maybe this will be a harbinger of some good old-fashioned doom...hehe. I think I'll take the rest of the day off from this board and let those 3 6's stay up there for a while...LOL.

[threadbear]

Never underestimate the power of coordinated efforts to keep the stock market pumped. If this is the best they can do, though, it doesn't bode well for the longevity of the markets or financial system.

[Snowrunner]

Looking at the market just now, it's only down by 175, and appears to be climbing. So what gives? Do people think that the demise of Lehman really isn't the end of the world after all?

I think more realistically they are shellshocked and don't know where to go with their money now (whatever they have left) so I don't necessarily expect a huge sell off until later in the week when reality starts sinking in and people have found (even imaginary) alternatives.

[Dreamtwister]

Remember how I speculated just a few days ago that with the bailout of F&F we had hit the bottom?

I woz wrong.

Nohing to be ashamed of. Any time you prognosticate and make a bet, you could be wrong. I have been wrong many times.

So far however, since joining the board here, I am doing EXTRAORDINARILY well I caught Gustav early on, caught Lehman early, and caught Ike early. So far, all my DOOM predictions are doing well. Go Long on RE Predictions

Reverse Engineer

Agreed. I have done exceptionally well as well. I called Lehman back in March. I also called the precious metals correction and I was chasing the mortgage kaboom from as far back as January 2006.

I also picked up on the forclosure pet phenomena 3 years before it made the news, and I even touched on Pakistan's looming international relations disaster* way back when Bhutto was assasinated.

Granted, I missed Merril Lynch, but who counts these little 50 billion dollar blips?

*The original article on Pakistan was completely rewritten between the time I first saw it, and the time I posted this (approximately 10 minutes).