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Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your hand.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:07:20

VMarcHart wrote:
Snowrunner wrote:The ones really screwed are people with "specialized skills", the true "hero" in this will in the end be the "Jack of of all Trades" because they tend to be easier to adapt to a changing environment. The ones drowning or eaten by the crocodiles are the "one trick wonders".
You're very kind, but I'm afraid I'm a one trick wonder, if that.


Well, as the saying goes: Adapt or Die.

I don't really think most of the things one would need to "make it" are a genetic trait that only a few of us have. It really falls more into the mental capacity of learning and adapting and being willing to do things you haven't tried before.

I am fully aware that 90+% of the human population aren't mentally set up for this, they are happy having someone telling them what to do, as long as it sounds good enough they'll follow.

But speaking for you: Start reading up, try to make a plan, be willing to adapt it and change it as things change around you, simple (and complex) as that really.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:09:39

Snowrunner wrote: I think the people posting on here, looking ahead see way further out than the average person.



I agree. Most here see a general idea of the destination, differing only in the structural aspects. What we can't even come close to agreeing on right now is the path there or when we'll arrive.

But even that will be clearer to us all as the months and years tick by.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Pops » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:19:06

Snowrunner wrote:I do admit I gave into my "doomer mood" over the weekend and added roughly another two weeks worth of non-perishable food (from one week I had on hand), but I am really questioning if the worst case scenario does happen, will it really make a difference?

I have seen some of your posts but admit I don't know much of your situation.

If you have 2 weeks of food/water/heat on hand you are way ahead of most.

See, I grew up learning when I saw the mushroom cloud I should duck and cover (and kiss my...) so this is just another blip.

Everything you do to get a little head start is an advantage. It could be another dozen cans of pork and beans or buying from a farmer's market or making a bigger move - it's all about what you can do.


Do the things you can...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:52:00

Pops wrote:I have seen some of your posts but admit I don't know much of your situation.

If you have 2 weeks of food/water/heat on hand you are way ahead of most.


That's true, heat isn't that much of an issue, being in the Pacific Northwest it can get cool but there is always bundling up, ditto as far as fresh water (rain) goes, there are several large reservoirs around Vancouver, if the public infrastructure should come crashing down getting there by bike isn't going to be much off an issue, though I should probably spring for a water purifier just in case. I also realized over the weekend that I cannot find my gas for my portable stove it most have gone AWOL during my last move, so that's on my "to get" list as well.

See, I grew up learning when I saw the mushroom cloud I should duck and cover (and kiss my...) so this is just another blip.


Yeah, I grew up in a similar scenario, only with the understanding that I WOULD be the mushroom cloud, we had so much US Army around us that we were a prime target to get nuked into the next century should the "opportunity" have arisen.

Everything you do to get a little head start is an advantage. It could be another dozen cans of pork and beans or buying from a farmer's market or making a bigger move - it's all about what you can do.


That's pretty much my rational right now. If the JIT train comes to an abrupt end I expect utter turmoil for two or three weeks minimum, during that time there has to be intervention, I expect in that scenario to have the Government step in, take over Diesel reserves and starting to set up distribution centres for food, but that will take time.

There was (ironically) an article in "The Province" a few weeks ago where there was talk about the desaster prepardness in BC, it essentially came down to that there are "caches" of emergency supplies, but the article was pointing out that all of these were set up during the 1980s when the population numbers were quite a bit lower than they are today. It seems they never updated their requirements.

If that is changing now? Who knows.

The good news is that BC still (mostly) controls it's own power distribution, most of it is hydro-electric, so I don't really expect the lights to go out due to a fuel shortage etc.

Do the things you can...


That's essentially it :) Not much more one can do.

But it doesn't help that there is a big part of me that still things I am a Y2Ker.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Rubin_Flagg » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:53:42

I've been reading this space for a long time. I really think that you all have a lot of good things to say, but come on...

We are humanity and have brains and compassion. Our ancestors built civilizations, created medicine, religion and science. We figured out how to grow food and create civil society. The progress we as a species have made in the past 5000 years is amazing.

In my lifetime along I've seen a human being walk on the moon, the internet and Great Wall of China. I've read books about Ghandi, King, Washington, Jefferson and Confucius. I've watched the birth of my sons, spent great times with my grandparents and parents.

All of us have things that we love and cherish....

So lets get off our ass, adjust the attitude of TSHHTF (The shit has hit the fan) and stop acting like a bunch of losers and remember where we came from and who brought us up. So things look grim...who care get it together and do something. Get out of your dam bunker and start making the world the kind of world that we are capable of. Be worthy of those that have come before. You are also a king, a pyramid builder, scientest, farmer and most importantly great parent, son/daughter, friend, employer/worker and servant of the divine.

Peak Oil is a huge challenge...so was living during the 1930-40', the Dark Ages, wars and bad times. Still, there were people that decided to make a better world. Now is your time! Stand up and get it together for yourself, your family, your community and humanity. Make the world a better place and start building the new civilization.

See you out there!

This will be our finest hour!
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:53:57

eastbay wrote:I agree. Most here see a general idea of the destination, differing only in the structural aspects. What we can't even come close to agreeing on right now is the path there or when we'll arrive.

But even that will be clearer to us all as the months and years tick by.


Yeah, time will tell, the question really is when is paranoid too paranoid? Rocc seems to have decided that it truly is "bunker time" and I can't fault him, I have, when reading some new piece, the same feeling really.

Oh well... I think I make some popcorn. How are the asian markets doing right now?
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby the48thronin » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:58:14

I cant hold my hand up too long, Gotta steer! Still moving things around so the store shelves won't be empty!
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:59:26

Snowrunner wrote:
Oh well... I think I make some popcorn. How are the asian markets doing right now?


They were up quit a bit earlier, but right now they're flat. Oil's still up.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 23:07:01

the48thronin wrote:I cant hold my hand up too long, Gotta steer! Still moving things around so the store shelves won't be empty!


That actually reminds me. My desire to "leave" in general and get "out of here", where "here" is essentially mainstream society has less to do really with impending doom, but rather my utter distaste was to what we have turned ourselves into, instead of striving to conquer new frontiers it's striving to make it to $supercentre and get the latest $shiny_gizmo.

And yeah, obviously I am at times also enamored with this stuff, but at the end of the day I never indebted myself for it, and I see it all around....

Better stop now before I get all worked up (again).
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 23:37:08

Auntie_Cipation wrote:What else is there, given what's coming, but to become part of a sustainable community? And those of us who see what's happening, are the ones who can help prepare our communities now to become sustainable as quickly as we can.

Any other attempts at a solution that I've heard -- from techno-fixes, to intensive urban greenhouse-pods, to terraforming other planets, are only an extension of our temporary ability to live beyond our means. Not to mention mostly infeasible. So, what else is there?


What else is there? I can answer that question :-) You might not like the answer though.

You have two very different problems here, one is the Survival through the Zero Point, the second is the rebuilding if there is to be one.

The Independent Sustainable community won't do well through the Zero Point. Any area with any productivity whatsoever will be raped and pillaged if that community is not part of a larger force. All will be forced into the Borg Collective. "Resistance is Futile".

However, without additional planets to swarm over, the Borg will eventually run out of resources to keep the Collective going. In other words, at a certain point all the big weapons and mechanized armies will stop functioning. Its only after that occurs that the ISC might begin to reassert itself.

How do you survive as the society collectivizes under the Borg? You submit, you become a part of the Borg. There is only one place you can retain your independence, that is inside your own mind. You have to lock it up and keep it safe, until the Borg begins to fall apart. As Hawkeye told Cora right before her capture by Magua:

"No, you submit, do you hear? You be strong, you survive... You stay alive, no matter what occurs! I will find you. No matter how long it takes, no matter how far, I will find you. "

There is no Hawkeye out there who will come to save you, so you will in the end have to save yourself, if its possible. However, in the short term of the Zero Point, you have no choice other than to submit, elsewise you will die.

I do not think the Zero Point will last all that long actually. I cannot see the big militaries holding together as the sources of funding dry up. Maybe a couple of years with the big boys fighting it out on the World Stage. Then you devolve down to more local areas struggling to survive. At this point you might let the Independence you harbored in the Safe of your Mind come out once again, if you are still alive.

Be aware that a sustainable community in this period is not simply pascifist farmers and shepherds and hunters and fishermen. You will need PROTECTION. You must have a cadre of people, mostly young men who will patrol and protect the given plot of land your society of 10,000 human souls occupies. Go no further outward then the defensible geographical boundaries of your location, perhaps protected by the Ocean if you are on an Island, perhaps bounded by really Big Rivers like the Mighty Mississippi, perhaps surrounded on all sides by Mountains. Really BIG Mountains. The Great Wall that God built.

If your ISC is to remain TRULY sustainable, you will have to find a way to limit your population growth inside your boundaries. You cannot let all people reproduce, neither can you let all children live, neither can you keep old folks alive past the point where they are productive toward the community in some way, at least as knoweldgable teachers and leaders. Determining the Law on how this is done is the most difficult part of developing a self-sustaining community of human souls that does NOT over tax the environment they live in. In the most fair way I can imagine, you have a test for survival among your children if you are reproducing too fast. You send them out in groups into the Wilderness for a year, you see which ones come back alive. If they are strong of mind and strong of body, if as a parent you prepared them well for the Survival Test, perhaps your child is the one Left Standing at the end of the Test. This is a REAL test, not just the SAT. Its the test of Life and Death, and those who walk out of this alive will have learned a very important lesson about the nature of life on earth.

As I have said before, I am no Communist, I am no Fascist either. I am a Darwinist in the most strict sense, its all about utility and the preservation of resources for the community, and you make your tests very real to determine who survives and who dies. The Time for this comes when you reach Puberty, around the age of 12-14 generally speaking. At this point of reproductive ability, you can no longer depend on your parents, you must demonstrate your OWN ability to survive and to procreate further. If you cannot make it through the test, so be it. It is up to the society to make the test as fair as possible, no child goes out into the wilderness with more or less than any other. No inheritance of wealth or power. All Equal for the Test.

At the end of the year in the Wilderness, there will be a few left standing. You bring them back in, you breed some more. Repeat the process. You will defintely breed up some very tough individuals this way.

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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 02:08:04

Snowrunner wrote:...Rocc seems to have decided that it truly is "bunker time"...

He's going to be devastated if it isn't. He's really looking forward to shooting at people.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 02:23:05

Rubin_Flagg wrote:...come on...stop acting like a bunch of losers and remember where we came from and who brought us up. So things look grim...who cares...get it together and do something. Get out of your damned bunker...

Peak Oil is a huge challenge...so was living during the 1930-40', the Dark Ages, wars and bad times...

This will be our finest hour!

Of course it will.

Besides, this isn't even the Peak Oil crisis yet. For Christ's sake, people, all this amounts to is a re-structuring of the world's financial system. This is The Great Credit Crunch. That's how we'll remember it.

The banks don't trust each other at the moment. They will again someday. It'll happen, and probably pretty soon.

Yeah, we'll go through a gut-busting worldwide recession. It may be a full-on economic depression that will rival or even exceed the big one of the thirties. But we'll drag our butts out of it and carry on, at reduced levels of economic activity, and most of us will be poorer when the dust settles.

Armageddon, it won't be. Those of you who are looking forward to that are going to be disappointed. That'll come much later, when we run out of oil.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 02:23:11

Zardoz wrote:
Snowrunner wrote:...Rocc seems to have decided that it truly is "bunker time"...

He's going to be devastated if it isn't. He's really looking forward to shooting at people.


Where would we all be without dreams? :roll:
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 02:27:53

Zardoz wrote:The banks don't trust each other at the moment. They will again someday. It'll happen, and probably pretty soon.


What makes you say that? Outside of full disclosure and everybody looking at everybody elses books the trust is gone.

How many cheated on partners are forgiving easy? Banks are no different in this respect, unless there is a fundamental review, opening of books and general "clean slate" the distrust will continue.

Trust is build over time, and with every "failure" or "admittance" the trust is diminished further, way more than is restored during the brief period.

I appreciate the upbeat outlook, but it flies straight into the face everything that usually makes human behaviour possible.

Yeah, we'll go through a gut-busting worldwide recession. It may be a full-on economic depression that will rival or even exceed the big one of the thirties. But we'll drag our butts out of it and carry on, at reduced levels of economic activity, and most of us will be poorer when the dust settles.


That much is a given.

Armageddon, it won't be. Those of you who are looking forward to that are going to be disappointed. That'll come much later, when we run out of oil.


Depends on your definition of Armageddon I guess, the closer I look at how finance and the rest of the world are intervined the more I think it will hit us much much harder than we anticipate right now.

But who knows, maybe I am just in that period of the month and see things darker then they really are, but I tend to underestimate things I've been told....

*tosses coin*
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 04:04:33

ReverseEngineer wrote:[
At the end of the year in the Wilderness, there will be a few left standing. You bring them back in, you breed some more. Repeat the process. You will defintely breed up some very tough individuals this way.

Reverse Engineer


Sounds like ancient Sparta to me. That didn't work out in the end for them.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby RSFB » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 07:30:02

I'm posting from my workplace, so no, I'm not heading for the hills. My productivity surely went down due to so much worrying and news reading.

I get paid on the 25th, hopefully things can hold up until then :razz:
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 07:44:26

vtsnowedin wrote:
ReverseEngineer wrote:[
At the end of the year in the Wilderness, there will be a few left standing. You bring them back in, you breed some more. Repeat the process. You will defintely breed up some very tough individuals this way.

Reverse Engineer


Sounds like ancient Sparta to me. That didn't work out in the end for them.


How do you know that? Just like some Jews survived in the Diaspora, just like some Banking families migrated from country to country, the Spartans have always survived through it all. I am one of them, I can attest to the fact tha living a Spartan Life WORKS. You don't think being a Spartan is a way to get through life well? I PERSONALLY can attest to the fact you are WRONG. My own life proves otherwise.

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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby davep » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 08:08:57

ReverseEngineer wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
ReverseEngineer wrote:[
At the end of the year in the Wilderness, there will be a few left standing. You bring them back in, you breed some more. Repeat the process. You will defintely breed up some very tough individuals this way.

Reverse Engineer


Sounds like ancient Sparta to me. That didn't work out in the end for them.


How do you know that? Just like some Jews survived in the Diaspora, just like some Banking families migrated from country to country, the Spartans have always survived through it all. I am one of them, I can attest to the fact tha living a Spartan Life WORKS. You don't think being a Spartan is a way to get through life well? I PERSONALLY can attest to the fact you are WRONG. My own life proves otherwise.

Reverse Engineer


Didn't Spartans take an unhealthy interest in bumming boys? 8O
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 08:35:48

davep wrote:
Didn't Spartans take an unhealthy interest in bumming boys? 8O


Don't Capitalists take an unhealthy interest in banging $5000 whores?

The devolution of any philoshophy of lfe can be corrupted by greed or sexual desire. Why do you suppose it is politicans in Britain are notrious for sexual pecadillos? Why do you suppose Eliot Spitzer got taken down for putting his wick in the wrong place at the wrong time? Wy do you suppose Bill Clinton was getting BJs from Monica Lewinsky?

Everyone is susceptible to this sort of corruption of the spirit. Its one of the ways all philosophies are defiled. I am sure some of the original Spartans were corrupted in this way, just as I am sure some Catholic Priests were also. What of it? It doesn't speak to the philosophy itself, only to the weakness and corruptibilty of man. This is nothing new in any philosophy, it exists in all of them.

I am not arguing that all philoshophies are incorruptible, of course they are because all people have weaknesses. I personally however am incorruptable :-), and I just examine the philosphy itself, not the people who are figureheads for it. I don't worry much about where they stick their wicks, though if they don't hve a good command over this desire, they end up screwing themselves usually.

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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby davep » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 08:50:35

ReverseEngineer wrote:
davep wrote:
Didn't Spartans take an unhealthy interest in bumming boys? 8O


Don't Capitalists take an unhealthy interest in banging $5000 whores?

The devolution of any philoshophy of lfe can be corrupted by greed or sexual desire. Why do you suppose it is politicans in Britain are notrious for sexual pecadillos? Why do you suppose Eliot Spitzer got taken down for putting his wick in the wrong place at the wrong time? Wy do you suppose Bill Clinton was getting BJs from Monica Lewinsky?

Everyone is susceptible to this sort of corruption of the spirit. Its one of the ways all philosophies are defiled. I am sure some of the original Spartans were corrupted in this way, just as I am sure some Catholic Priests were also. What of it? It doesn't speak to the philosophy itself, only to the weakness and corruptibilty of man. This is nothing new in any philosophy, it exists in all of them.

I am not arguing that all philoshophies are incorruptible, of course they are because all people have weaknesses. I personally however am incorruptable :-), and I just examine the philosphy itself, not the people who are figureheads for it. I don't worry much about where they stick their wicks, though if they don't hve a good command over this desire, they end up screwing themselves usually.

Reverse Engineer


It's not so much a corruption, as a tenet of Spartan society. From Wiki:

The Spartans believed that the love of an older, accomplished aristocrat for an adolescent boy was essential to his formation as a free citizen. The education of the ruling class was thus founded on pederastic relationships, required of each citizen.[4][verification needed] The ephors fined any eligible man who did not love a boy, because, despite his own excellence, he failed to make a beloved “similar to himself.”[5] Likewise, for a boy it was a disgrace to not find a lover,[6]. By the time they reached the age of twelve "there was not any of the more hopeful boys who did not have a lover to bear him company."[7]


Note: I'm not homophobic. This was originally intended as a light-hearted jibe...
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