[odegaard]

What a hoot. Actually a good article. http://www.elle.com/Beauty/Health-Fitness/Do-Worry.-Be-Happy

This is exactly the kind of magazine that needs to print this material. Smack all of the soccer moms in the gut with some reality. Awesome. Stuff like this is worth 1000 articles on EnergyBulletin.

I totally agree.
Making a post on this website saying we're going to hit peak oil is like
going to a Catholic church and announcing that God exists.
umm okay that's nice.
That's just preaching to the choir and NOT converting anybody.
I do NOT have any delusions of trying to convert / change any body's ideology whatever it may be.
I'm just here for a good time.

BTW I checked on the "National Organization for Women" website and searched for "peakoil" / "peak oil" == ZERO results.
No mention of it on Oprah Winfrey's website either.

[shortonsense]

shortonsense said:

I would think the peak oil having happened, and caused sub $2.00/gal prices in the US would by itself be quite a good indicator as to how accurate the projections of a post peak world have been to date?

When I get back into the mood of trying to explain differential calculus to mealy worms, and the flaws of neo-classical Keynesian economics to horse radishes, I’ll try to explain the $2.00/gal gasoline price phenomena to those who are little “short” on something.

Are you actually implying that differential equations can be used to explain how peak oil caused the price crash in crude versus the shortages, starvation and great dieoff we were led to believe was the expected consequences of the Blessed Event?

I must say, if my diffy-Q class in college had examples like this squirreled away and demonstrated them, I wouldn't have been do damn glad to get out of that class intact and might have gone back for even more!

[odegaard]

I think everyone owes Rob Hopkins an apology for bashing him in the other thread. Whether you think the transition model will work or not, it is mobilizing people in a way that is getting unprecedented peak oil press coverage.

Have you ever seen those cheesy kung fu movies where the student first trains doing 5 finger push ups and then works his way down to doing 1 finger push ups?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myt98kEKrmE

yeah I think that's how peak oil should be presented to the masses.
slow and steady.
If we jump straight to the end point and say, "half the people on this planet will die off and nothing can change this."
everything said afterwards will fall on deaf ears.
People will just automatically write you off as a crackpot.

[AgentR]

I would think the peak oil having happened, and caused sub $2.00/gal prices in the US would by itself be quite a good indicator as to how accurate the projections of a post peak world have been to date?

Seems to be doing exactly what a lot of people including myself have been predicting since become aware of the problem. Each time demand taps the upper bound of available supply you get a price run up; some permanent demand destruction, some economic injury, a collapse in demand and price, which then sets the stage for another run up, but weaker, each time it goes through the cycle.

This will repeat till the economy is flat out broken, but that might mean gasoline is selling at $1 or a gallon, or $20 a gallon; as thats more dependent upon how the dollar is handled than anything else.

[shortonsense]

I would think the peak oil having happened, and caused sub $2.00/gal prices in the US would by itself be quite a good indicator as to how accurate the projections of a post peak world have been to date?

Seems to be doing exactly what a lot of people including myself have been predicting since become aware of the problem. Each time demand taps the upper bound of available supply you get a price run up; some permanent demand destruction, some economic injury, a collapse in demand and price, which then sets the stage for another run up, but weaker, each time it goes through the cycle.

When Colin Campbell wrote his book, he sited "permanent" price increases. I find the plateau idea interesting myself, because its the one which at least has a chance of resembling actual economic reaction to supply/demand imbalances, on both sides of the equation.

Peak oil has not yet been redefined as a supply/demand issue though, maybe we can talk Wiki into adding the basic economic components of supply/demand rather than just worrying about the supply side.

[mos6507]

If we jump straight to the end point and say, "half the people on this planet will die off and nothing can change this."
everything said afterwards will fall on deaf ears.
People will just automatically write you off as a crackpot.

On the other hand, people are so addicted to BAU that only the fear of die-off is likely to get them to change proactively. Just look at how few are even willing to change for the sake of global warming, which has much more mainstream buy-in. Apparently there has to be a more immediate disaster, a Scrooge last-chance pleading to the ghost of christmas future so to speak.