[Ferretlover]

Lima, Peru. So long as they avoid civil disorder they will be able to shift population within the country and keep everyone supplied. I am a lot more concerned about irrigated farmland than I am about mobile citizenry in a peaceful country, building new pipelines is expensive and time consuming compared to packing up the U-Haul and setting up a tent city until things get figured out.

Isn't that the point though? Where will starving, thirsty citizenry move to in a starving country? I wonder how long the residence of Phoenix and Las Vegas will wait around until a pipeline is built from Lake Michigan? Of course they can move, but that would entail literally splitting ones own pie among a growing and needy population. You have to ask yourself, how long could each of us support a houseful of guests on our present grocery budget? A budget that will soon be busted by the very same thing that drove them to your door step.

Exactly, gentlemen. While none of us has a crystal ball to announce specfic dates, we know it is coming. There is so much 'writing on the wall,' we may as well enjoy the new graffitti.

[Cid_Yama]

In Africa, where it is currently playing out, they are leaving their rural villages where they can no longer survive and moving to the cities. This in turn makes the cities nearly uninhabitable as sanitation services and utilities are pushed beyond the breaking point, leading to violence and civil disorder. This leads, in turn, to political instability and warfare with their neighbors over limited resources.

Then you start to get cross border refugees, refugee camps, and tribal genocide.

Famine, starvation and disease come hand-in-hand on their heels.

[VMarcHart]

In Africa ... they are leaving their rural villages ... and moving to the cities.

My understanding from the documentary is that this problem will affect Lima and its metro area; 9 million urban dwellers.

It would be nice to hear from an expert on this particular situation.

[Ludi]

The Latino and other upcoming foreign-based minorites

Deleted by Eastbay per COC 1.0

[kiwichick]

recently watched a presentation by david kilcullan former senior advisor
to Gen. petraeus

he said 80% of iraqis fighting with the taliban do so for economic reasons

only 5% fight for ideological reasons

[VMarcHart]

Deleted by eastbay

Weren't them natives?

Is there an expert on Andean Glaciers among us?

[patience]

Thin Ice, a book by Mark Stander Bowen, a researcher into the world's high glaciers, is I think, the best reference around on the topic. Have it, read it, and it scared the living sh_t out of me. Yeah, this stuff is real, all right. this guy travelled the world to most all of the high glaciers--Kilimanjaro, Gobi Desert area, Andes, Central America--and drilled ice cores for ananlysis. Conclusions are stunning. We are in deeper than we know.

Amazon has the book.

[Tanada]

Thin Ice, a book by Mark Stander Bowen, a researcher into the world's high glaciers, is I think, the best reference around on the topic. Have it, read it, and it scared the living sh_t out of me. Yeah, this stuff is real, all right. this guy travelled the world to most all of the high glaciers--Kilimanjaro, Gobi Desert area, Andes, Central America--and drilled ice cores for ananlysis. Conclusions are stunning. We are in deeper than we know.

Amazon has the book.

You beat me to it Patience, I was just about to point this book out. I bought it last year and read it twice, its very convincing to me that we are in a flipped climate and nothing we do from here on out matters much. Not that we should not try, its just the doomer in me seeing climate flip everywhere I look.

[patience]

Tanada,

Yeah, we have a problem. I wonder if I made a mistake moving 200 miles south some years ago? The best climate info at the time thought southern Indiana would see erratic weather, but not change a lot otherwise. Now, I ain't so sure of it. We've had droughts, floods, and increasingly hot weather the past few years, and one 32" snowfall a couple years ago, in an area that normally doesn't get over a foot or so all winter. The snow only stayed on a week, then it was up to 50 deg. F. again!

We have a new plague of biting orange ladybugs, another plague of ants, and some new bugs I have never seen and can't identfy. And the Emerald Ash Beetle is devastating some forests here, so the state has banned the moving of firewood where they can, like no campfire wood allowed to be brought into State Forest campgrounds. Too little too late, like the glaciers.

Thin Ice also pointed out the dependence of a lot of South America and other parts of the world on hydro power from glaciers, which is going to get knocked out by the melting. The Himalayas water a big part of the world's population, too. This is going to be a disaster of untold proportions, and happen just slowly enough to boil all the frogs who now deny its' existence. No help for most people. I can't convince my daughter to move out of San Diego, because of the looming water problems there! And she understands the whole thing!

[Lore]

And the Emerald Ash Beetle is devastating some forests here, so the state has banned the moving of firewood where they can, like no campfire wood allowed to be brought into State Forest campgrounds. Too little too late, like the glaciers.

This is one of the those under reported affects in the media that warns us something is wrong. A great many of our forests are under siege with infestation and disease, whether it be pine, elm, oak, ash, beech, or walnut.

[Tanada]

We have a new plague of biting orange ladybugs, another plague of ants, and some new bugs I have never seen and can't identfy. And the Emerald Ash Beetle is devastating some forests here, so the state has banned the moving of firewood where they can, like no campfire wood allowed to be brought into State Forest campgrounds. Too little too late, like the glaciers.

Those orange look-a-likes are actually a kind of soybean beetle that hitchhiked over from Asia a few years ago, they are becoming a major pest, and you will hardly find any Ash trees left here in lower Michigan and upper Ohio/Indiana. The Japanese tree beetle that was considered a nuisance has become even worse and now infests Linden and some Fruit trees in swarms that will strip all the high foliage and leave the tree unproductive. The list, no doubt, goes on from there. People who spend all there lives inside watching MTV or MSNBC really have no concept of easy world travel for Humans also means easy world travel for every other living thing on the planet. Until the ecosystem on each location can adjust to new species and get back into quasi stability its is going to stay a problem, i have hopes that the end of easy air travel will help that process along by slowing the rate of influx.

[xironman]

Two years sounds pretty short, maybe 16 years. So plenty of time to party on.

http://enperublog.com/2009/01/23/another-victim-of-global-warming-quilca-glacier-disappears/

For the second time in as many months, the affects of global warming on Peru’s rare tropical glaciers is made painfully evident.

Peru’s National Institute for Natural Resources (INRENA) has reported that the Quilca glacier in Puno, 5250 m.a.s.l., has now completely vanished. This is an ominous warming for a country where the vast majority of the population lives on a desert coast who’s rivers are fed by melt waters from similar glaciers.

It is estimated that by the year 2025, Peru will be devoid of any ice whatsoever. “There are glaciers that are increasingly getting smaller and tend to disappear. This is an irreversible process,” explained Marco Zapata, head of the glaciology department for INRENA..

So there is a Peruvian glacier expert. Let google be your friend http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=glacier+Marco+Zapata&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=

[VMarcHart]

On the subject of ice and water...

Water Footprint

[WhatMeWorry]

And scientist are stunned that our youth are self distructive? They can sense it subconsciously or whatever.


Many teens believe they'll die young
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31596329/ns ... -behavior/

[frankthetank]

I read the story about this over at WU a few days ago and generally agreed that i could see how soot would have an impact. I would assume its no different then me spreading the ashes from my woodstove out on the snowbanks in the front yard? Well...i see NASA has a nice graphic of it up...

On the Tibetan Plateau, temperatures are rising and glaciers are melting faster than climate scientists would expect based on global warming alone. A recent study of ice cores from five Tibetan glaciers by NASA and Chinese scientists confirmed the likely culprit: rapid increases in black soot concentrations since the 1990s, mostly from air pollution sources over Asia, especially the Indian subcontinent. Soot-darkened snow and glaciers absorb sunlight, which hastens melting, adding to the impact of global warming.

NASA climate scientists combine satellite and ground-based observations of soot and other particles in the air with weather and air chemistry models to study how the atmosphere moves pollution from one place to another. This image is from a computer simulation of the spread of black soot (“black carbon” to climate scientists) over the Tibetan Plateau from August through November 2009. It shows black carbon aerosol optical thickness on September 26, 2009. (Aerosol optical thickness is scale that describes how much pollution was in the air based on how much of the incoming sunlight the particles absorbed.) Places where the air was thick with soot are white, while lower concentrations are transparent purple.

The highest concentrations of black soot are in the right-hand side of the image, over the densely populated coastal plain of China. But high concentrations occur over India, as well, and the black soot spreads across the southern arc of the Tibetan Plateau, which is defined by the towering peaks of the Himalaya Mountains. (Note: Topography has been exaggerated to highlight features that influence air movement). The animation shows how the black carbon pollution from India often circulates at high concentrations for several days against the base of the Himalaya, periodically “sloshing” over the rim of the mountains and spilling northward over the plateau, before being carried away over the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea.

Writing about the implications of the study for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Website, NASA climate scientist and study co-author James Hansen said, “[C]ontinued, ‘business-as-usual’ emissions of greenhouse gases and black soot will result in the loss of most Himalayan glaciers this century, with devastating effects on fresh water supplies in dry seasons. The black soot arises especially from diesel engines, coal use without effective scrubbers, and biomass burning, including cook stoves. Reduction of black soot via cleaner energies would have other benefits for human health and agricultural productivity. However, survival of the glaciers also requires halting global warming, which depends upon stabilizing and reducing greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide.”

There is a nice animation also...
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=41854

[Homesteader]

Nice find Frank.

A bit sobering to sit with the implications of this, that we are covering the world in soot.

[timmac]

Here is some old maps over 300-2000 years old showing accurate land mass under the ice at Greenland and Antarctica, one map is from 200 BC showing no ice in parts of Antarctica, how can this be if our GW scientist says its not so, [Or Are They Just Wrong] only our modern satellites of today was able to see and map land under all this ice, but old maps found have the land mass accurate even long before man explored there, could this be more proof that ice was not there long ago at one time and man explored and lived there, could this prove that GW is a fraud and our earths climate is just going back to what is was once in the past, lets also not forget the mammoths [thousands] found in Serbia with undigested food in there stomachs, maybe they are not millions of years old as the scientist wants us to beleave ??

Know your correct past and you will know the correct future...



http://www.nymapsociety.org/FEATURES/TRAGER.HTM

[timmac]

From article : Maps over 300 years old shows flowing rivers in Greenland and is accurate ???

So, how did Mercator obtain the information for his map, created more than 300 years earlier? He probably didn't learn that it was an island until after 1538, for his world map of that year shows Greenland as a peninsula coming out of the north Clearly, Mercator did not make his 1538 or 1569 maps using contemporary information from sailing ships, because none could sail there. (Even today, with the warming of the climate in the late 20th century, the ice would still prevent sailing to northern Greenland.) And yet, not only does Mercator's 1569 map accurately depict northern Greenland, but it shows free-flowing rivers—something that did not exist in the 16th century and that today is ice and glacier. His map also shows Greenland with many offshore islands, which is also correct.

Mercator's 1538 map, with detail view of Greenland as a peninsula.
In short, Mercator's 1569 map of Greenland depicts the island far more accurately than 19th-century maps. With no scientific knowledge to prove otherwise, mapmakers of the 19th century simply ignored Mercator. They must have assumed he couldn't have made an accurate map of Greenland, and therefore, whatever he had drawn was simply a figment of his imagination. But details on the 1569 map are far too accurate to have been a mere product of imagination.

Sixteenth and 17th-century sailors knew that northern Greenland was inaccessible. This is shown by the Danish sailing instructions to Greenland given to Henry Hudson in connection with his voyage to Hudson Bay:

Then Gunnbiorn's Rocks lie half way between Iceland and Greenland. This course was anciently taken, but now it is said that there is ice on the rocks that has come out of the Northern Ocean, so that it is no longer possible to go that way withouth peril of life …†

† Sailing Directions of Henry Hudson, Rev. B. F. De Costa, 1869, as translated for Hudson from Ivar Bardsen's Sea Card of 1490.

It should also be noted that, similar to the gore mapmapker, Mercator was not alone. Another world map of 1565 by Paolo Forlani also shows Greenland as an island, Greenland appears at the top middle of this map under the name “Grvtlanda.” While it is nowhere near as detailed as Mercator's map, it proves that other mapmakers of that time knew that Greenland was an island.

[timmac]

Hers a article from the GW camp that shows new islands appearing around Greenland because ice is melting from Global Warming,
Whats strange is these islands are in maps from 300-2000 years ago,, was there SUVs and Coal Power plants 2000 years ago ??


http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=7738