[Bas]

high $168
low $68
close$148

I think 2010 will see the demand in China *the world's biggest car market* grow by a considerable amount while demand in the West and the rest of the world will recover making demand and supply tight again, especially in the second half of the year, giving speculators a good opportunity to drive up prices, maybe well past my predictions but at least as high as last year's record price, more or less corrected for inflation in the price of gold that we've seen in the past year.

[eastbay]

High: $ 147.00
Low: $ 72.00
Close: $ 137.00

[SteinarN]

I think what we have seen in 2009 is a return to a somewhat more "normal" price development with a gradual increase in the oil price as extraction from new and existing fields becomes increasingly harder and more expensive. A gradual return from the grip of the financial cricis along with an increase in the chinese consumption will probably increase the upward pressure on the oil price.

Low: 71
High: 112
Close: 102

[Rod_Cloutier]

High: $120.
Low: $10
Close: $70

There has been too much oil put into storage during the oil glut this year for prices to rise to 2008 highs, inventory takes time to clear. Also, many areas are still seeing deflation, couple that with perhaps 30% plus unemployment in the US sustained through 2010 this could also hammer demand even further. I see $10 oil a possibility if the depression worsens and demand continues to fall faster than the oil supply.

Given the inventory glut, a depression economy, low prospects for growth, and a post peak oil production reality, I see oil being about the same as it is now at the end of 2010, hovering around $70 a barrel. (However, with a return to high volitility in price movements).

[TheDude]

I think what we have seen in 2009 is a return to a somewhat more "normal" price development with a gradual increase in the oil price as extraction from new and existing fields becomes increasingly harder and more expensive. A gradual return from the grip of the financial cricis along with an increase in the chinese consumption will probably increase the upward pressure on the oil price.

Low: 71
High: 112
Close: 102

If you chart the linear trend for average monthly prices this year it points towards a ceiling of $130/bbl next year.

Morgan Downey says the oil in Floating Storage is being burnt through. I took a closer look at the Megaprojects and the pickings are even thinner this year. My bet is that we erode all spare capacity by 2012, assuming the figures are valid in the first place. And, again, barring some massive collapse in demand. What a mess.

[thylacine]

Low = $60
High = $150
Close = $100

A price spike some time during the year either due to improving western economies putting additional pressure on supply, or maybe tension/conflict in the Persian Gulf.

[pup55]

Bloomberg asked the oil analysts who had been most successful in predicting the price of crude oil in 2009 where oil prices would be headed next year, and two divergent scenarios come to the fore: the first sees crude staying high and looming in the $88-$92 range for the fourth quarter of 2010, while the second has it dropping much lower, to $59 a barrel by the end of 2010.

The first scenario, the Bloomberg post notes, is supported by the two analysts who were the most accurate forecasters of crude prices in 2009; their predictions were “within 9 percent of market levels.” Mike Wittner of Societe Generale SA and Hannes Loacker at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG think that oil will stay up in 2010, buoyed by increased demand and stagnant production.

Wittner thinks crude will hover at $92.50 and Loacker puts it at $88. The price, the pair say, will rise as China and India lead the world economy out of our current global recession—the biggest “economic shock” we’ve seen since World War II—and OPEC caps its output. Loacker said he thinks OPEC will stick to its current production levels “for a good portion of 2010.

[url]http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/analysts-lay-out-two-scenarios-for-2010-crude-prices1222/”[/url]

[pup55]

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
West Texas Intermediate Spot Average 75.67 78.00 79.67 81.33

Source: US EIA STEO issued December2009

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/dec09.pdf

In late December, Calgarybased energy investment bank Peters & Co. raised its 2010 oil forecast to $77.35 from a previous estimate of $75.60.

Martin King, a commodities analyst with FirstEnergy Capital, said signs are pointing to a continuation of the modest recovery experienced in the waning days of the year. While oil is expected to average about $62 for the full-year of 2009, he's expecting prices to stay at or near current levels for the foreseeable future. The brokerage is predicting an average price of about $75 through the next 12 months based on global demand growth of 1.5 million barrels a day and an additional one million bpd in 2011.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Cinderella+year/2378706/story.html

CITY analysts expect crude oil futures to trade around $75 to $80 a barrel during the early months of 2010 and move above $85 later in the year as the global economy recovers from the worst economic slump since the Great Depression.

These prices give plenty of comfort to producers. Opec, the producers’ cartel, has said $75 a barrel is its target, while even deep-water specialists such as BP, Shell and Petrobras can continue drilling in expensive offshore regions at a much lower price.

nalysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch are bullish, forecasting an average price of $85 per barrel next year. Their revised global energy forecast says black gold may jump above $100 by late 2010 or early 2011.

In 2010, we believe dollar weakness will give way to gold appreciating against all currencies. As emerging markets’ central banks increase their allocations to gold and push prices above $1500/oz, oil prices should follow. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude could break $100 a barrel by late 2010 or early 2011,” it said.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has maintained its previous $90-a-barrel 2010 price forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude futures.

“Overall, we leave our 2010 WTI crude oil forecasts largely unchanged at an average price of $90/bbl, but with lower prices at the start of the year and higher prices at the end,” the bank said.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/corporate-sme/buoyant-year-ahead-forecast-for-crude-oil-prices-1.994414

Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast of U.S. crude oil price to $105 a barrel in 2012 from $95 due to tightening spare capacity. “Assuming that demand returns to growth, we see global spare capacity back to 2007/08 levels by 2012, and getting even tighter thereafter…We believe that prices will need to move higher to ration demand as the world struggles to find enough supply.”

While many experts predict higher oil prices, Deutsche Bank analysts say they could fall to $60 a barrel next year, as the sluggish economy dampens demand. That would represent a drop of more than 20 percent from recent levels…the analysts predict an average price of $65 in 2010.

Mexico has hedged much of its 2010 net oil exports at $57 a barrel, the government said on Tuesday, continuing the conservative strategy that reaped huge profits in 2009 after the credit crisis crushed oil prices. Mexico paid $1.172 billion for options that guarantee a minimum price of $57 a barrel for 230 million barrels of oil exports next year.

http://thefastertimes.com/wallstreet/2009/12/09/crude-oil-predictions-and-targets-round-up/

[pup55]

T. Boone Pickens is still a bull on the energy complex. Bloomberg reported last week that Pickens now sees oil hitting $100 a barrel next year.

http://www.tickerspy.com/newswire/?p=695

[pup55]

ndustrial output in China rose by 19% in November over the same month in 2008. Though the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov) and oil cartel OPEC don't see the demand scenario as fleshing out until 2010, the IEA outlook is bolstered by JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), a U.S.-based financial services giant.

JP Morgan analysts upped their oil price forecast for 2010 from $67.50 to $78.25 last Thursday, which would put crude about 12% higher than current levels around $69.90 per barrel.

[url]
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/oil ... -2010/2226[/url]

Saudi Arabia is expected to bask again in a massive fiscal surplus in 2010 after suffering from a relatively small deficit this year for the first time since the onset of the oil boom in 2002, according to analysts.

The kingdom, the world's oil powerhouse, forecast a budget deficit of SR70 billion (Dh69.3bn) in 2010 but oil prices are expected to average more than 50 per cent above its budget projections, they said.

Announcing the 2010 budget on Monday, Riyadh revealed that the actual shortfall this year had been cut to SR45bn from a projected SR65bn because of higher revenue.

"We are forecasting oil prices to average $75 a barrel in 2010. Oil prices are now trading within the $65- $75 range, which is significantly higher than the $39 low back in February. This is largely due to optimism regarding the pace of global recovery and signs of demand rebounding in emerging markets," Saudi Arabia's largest bank, National Commercial Bank, said in a study about the kingdom's 2010 budget, sent to Emirates Business yesterday.

http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2009/12/Pages/26122009/12272009_1319e5a9c5664feaaa6f5ca5a2478366.aspx

[obixman]

Low - 64
High - 120
close - 110

[Daniel_Plainview]

Low = $66.6
High = $125.15
Close = $83.73

[lateStarter]

Low: $68
High: $104
Close: $98

This is BAU forecast.

[pup55]

Code: Select all

   High   Low   Close
TreeFarmer   88   38   63
eXpat   100   70   90
alpha480v   125   75   99
jdmartin   118   70   90
SeaGypsy   92   68   87
Hawkcreek   168   69   119
Armageddon   219   75   201
OilFinder2   84   64   68
IslandCrow   140   70   105
wisconsin_cur   138.95   32.16   55.12
Cog   110   74   90
davep   140   60   120
mcgowanjm   78.51   27.25   27.25
2cher   136   72   123
TheDude   120   45   65
Gerben   101   65   78
pablonite   169   69   113
AlexdeLarge   88   35   40
Bas   168   68   148
eastbay   147   72   137
SteinarN   112   71   102
Repent   120   10   70
thylacine   150   60   100
obixman   120   64   110
Daniel_Plainview   125.15   66.6   83.73
lateStarter   104   68   98


avg   125   60   95


part of me wants to go with the averages, because it is a pretty plausible scenario........

and part of me wants to be a contrarian, kinda like Deutche Bank, and low ball it.....

I think the sentiment of the so-called all knowing experts has been similarly schizophrenic this year.

[hardtootell-2]

Thanks for the guesses one and all. I am too embarrassed by last yrs results to hazard a guess. Some of you have provided rationale for 2010 guesses, others did not. I am interested in hearing rationale, esp from doomers. Is the upper limit, limited by demand destruction? What about geopolitics and war? Surely that could take the lid off prices. And I assume the lower limit represents a double dip recession?
How will oil correlate to the equity, precious metals and bond markets? What about a much weaker dollar?
I know these are hard questions, but "you guys" are up to it.

[Nike62]

H: 95
L: 40
C: 80

[copious.abundance]

Thanks for the guesses one and all. I am too embarrassed by last yrs results to hazard a guess. Some of you have provided rationale for 2010 guesses, others did not. I am interested in hearing rationale . . .

Don't know about anyone else, but my rationale was simply a continuation of the 2nd half of 2009. Toward the end of the year I'm guessing the Fed might finally inch interest rates up a bit which will strengthen the dollar a bit, thus sending the price of oil down a bit from highs reached in the spring or summer.

[Carlhole]

Oil will be $60 for a low and $100 for a high in 2010; low in summer as the dollar strengthens as the Fed tightens money supply.

High toward year-end with strengthening economy.

[pup55]

Can one forward a strong argument for a downtrend in oil's price in 2010?

Commerzbank AG Senior Analyst Eugen Weinberg attempts do just that -- predicting that oil will fall to $59 per barrel in Q4 2010, due to OPEC production increases.

[url]
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/12/2 ... 0-in-2010/[/url]

I see another quantum leap to as high as 134 dollars next year.

My Predictions For 2010 Print E-mail
Written by Orji Uzor Kalu
Sunday, 27 December 2009 19:19

http://leadershipnigeria.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10209:my-predictions-for-2010&catid=39:interval&Itemid=64

Oil prices are stabilising and could even rise
"reasonably", Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah was quoted as saying
by a Kuwaiti newspaper. [ID:nLDE5BO06M]

The top OPEC oil exporter sees a fair oil price at between
$75 and $80 per barrel, King Abdullah told the daily al-Seyassah
in an interview.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTOE5BQ02120091228

MEXICO CITY, Dec. 8 (Xinhua) -- Mexico has fixed an average oil price for 2010 at 70 U.S. dollars a barrel with put options bought from commercial banks, securing around 40 percent of the nation's budget next year, according to a Tuesday Finance Ministry statement.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/09/content_12615896.htm

[TheAntiDoomer]

Low: 58
High: 96
Close: 73