[Comp_Lex]

Oil:

Low: 40
High: 90
Close: unknown

US Gasoline:

Low: 1.50
High: 6.00
Close: unknown

[rangerone314]

Low: 72
High: 152
Close: 90

Modest production decline combined with speculators looking for something to chase their money with (after stocks tank again by April 2010) and higher demand from China will drive up oil.

Reality by end of year (and profit taking) will deflate oil speculation and drive it down to something more reasonable.

[careinke]

Low: 65
High: 135
Close: 125

[biofuel13]

low: 62.50
high: 168.25
close: 162.47

[vtsnowedin]

High $152.50
Low $ 51.25
End $ 117.00

I'm betting that the bills will start coming due on all the government bailouts and inflation will kick in in a big way.

[ColossalContrarian]

Can't miss this year....

Notice this is the same high I've gone with the past couple years and been completely wrong both times...

High: $119
Low: $64.38
End: $102.76

[Comp_Lex]

Your high is completely realistic. Too bad there is a bubble here and there on the market.

[sparky]

.

High 98
Low 55
closing 60

As everybody , I'm torn between the China growth scenario and the languishing western demand
but there is a lot of Iraqi oil just waiting to be unleashed with quite a few barrels in storage now

The Saudi have said 75~ 80 and have enough clout to stop a rise but interestingly not a fall
that should be OK everybody else ( bar Iraq ) is close to their limits
any increase in production is canceled by some other depletion

my 98 is simply a one off , to account for some wild spike ( Earthquake ,piracy ,revolution ......)

As sea gypsy mention , the big unknown is on the currency side .


.

[PeakOiler]

High: $96.50
Low: $62.40
Close: $78.25

Just another WAG.

[pup55]

High Low Close
TreeFarmer 88 38 63
eXpat 100 70 90
alpha480v 125 75 99
jdmartin 118 70 90
SeaGypsy 92 68 87
Hawkcreek 168 69 119
Armageddon 219 75 201
OilFinder2 84 64 68
IslandCrow 140 70 105
wisconsin_cur 138.95 32.16 55.12
Cog 110 74 90
davep 140 60 120
mcgowanjm 78.51 27.25 27.25
2cher 136 72 123
TheDude 120 45 65
Gerben 101 65 78
pablonite 169 69 113
AlexdeLarge 88 35 40
Bas 168 68 148
eastbay 147 72 137
SteinarN 112 71 102
Repent 120 10 70
thylacine 150 60 100
obixman 120 64 110
Daniel_Plainview 125.15 66.6 83.73
lateStarter 104 68 98
Nike62 95 40 80
Carlhole 100 60
TheAntiDoomer 96 58 73
Comp_Lex 90 40
rangerone314 72 152 90
careinke 135 65 125
biofuel13 168.25 62.5 162.47
vtsnowedin 152.5 51.25 117
ColossalContrarian 119 64.38 102.76
sparky 98 55 60
PeakOiler 96.5 62.4 78.25


avg 121 61 95

[pup55]

Here's a graph for the graphical thinkers, the high, low, close and average for the last several years.....

not official yet for 2009 of course because there is still a day or two and I suppose it is possible for there to be a new high today since the price has been in the high 70;s

[Comp_Lex]

So, you can't say anything about the prices if you only look at the past prices.

[pup55]

Oh, I think you can say several things.

You will notice that in the 2003 to 2006 time frame the system was at least stable. After that, no longer. Well, maybe 2007 was not totally unreasonable, but that was the time during which the prices kept going up in the fall, instead of falling back like they normally do, thus screwing up the refining margins. I believe people will look back on the period of fall 2007 as a really critically important period for the entire system.

It used to be fairly common for the closing price to be pretty close to the average price for the year. I suppose the pattern was for the low to happen during February, and the high to happen in July sometime. Well, we can see what has happened to that theory. High or low can happen anytime now, can't it The seasonality is no longer the main driver of prices.

It used to be fairly common for the average price in a given year to be fairly close to the high price for the previous year. Example: The average for 2005 was pretty close to the high for 2004: Well, that is no longer the case either.

I'm going to wait for a few days before putting in my forecast, but I am asking myself several questions right now:

a. Is the system even stable right now? If it is, and it's a bit IF, maybe it will get back to something that approaches the pattern that was happening in the 2003-2006 time frame. Maybe it will even extend the trend line that was established during that time, a high of maybe 100to 110 or so, a low in the 50's and the yearly average someplace in the 705 range as predicted by the big banks.

b. Is there something that approaches a "base" for oil prices, and if so what is the likelihood that we will see it at some point. Keep in mind that historically, crude oil prices should be relaxing this time of year. In fact, in three out of those years, the year end price was pretty close to the low for the following year....The only other year that that did not happen was 2007, and we all know what happened in 2008....

c. Is the overall economy stable enough, and is OPEC still strong enough, to sustain prices at these levels? How hungry will Venezuela and Russia and Mexico get in the coming year, and will they dump oil into the market to keep their economies running? A counterargument can be made that the current price is silly, it really belongs somewhere between here and 20 in the next 12 months.... Mcgowanjm has a scenario that kind of resembles that idea, and it is not far fetched....OF2 has also a pretty plausible scenario.

I am still thinking about it. Maybe someone stuck in a boring office will go back through previous years for the high, low, average and close for previous years, including the last recession year, to give us some more information.....

Or maybe Comp_lex is right: Past results are no longer a good predictor of future events.

[Keith_McClary]

Code: Select all

Sort by High
$ 78.51    27.25    27.25   mcgowanjm
$ 84.00    64.00    68.00   OilFinder2
$ 88.00    35.00    40.00   AlexdeLarge
$ 88.00    38.00    63.00   TreeFarmer
$ 90.00    40.00     0.00   Comp_Lex
$ 92.00    68.00    87.00   SeaGypsy
$ 95.00    40.00    80.00   Nike62
$ 96.00    58.00    73.00   TheAntiDoomer
$ 96.50    62.40    78.25   PeakOiler
$ 98.00    55.00    60.00   sparky
$100.00    60.00     0.00   Carlhole
$100.00    70.00    90.00   eXpat
$101.00    65.00    78.00   Gerben
$104.00    68.00    98.00   lateStarter
$110.00    74.00    90.00   Cog
$112.00    71.00   102.00   SteinarN
$118.00    70.00    90.00   jdmartin
$119.00    64.38   102.76   ColossalContrarian
$120.00    64.00   110.00   obixman
$120.00    10.00    70.00   Repent
$120.00    45.00    65.00   TheDude
$125.00    75.00    99.00   alpha480v
$125.15    66.60    83.73   Daniel_Plainview
$135.00    65.00   125.00   careinke
$136.00    72.00   123.00   2cher
$138.95    32.16    55.12   wisconsin_cur
$140.00    60.00   120.00   davep
$140.00    70.00   105.00   IslandCrow
$147.00    72.00   137.00   eastbay
$150.00    60.00   100.00   thylacine
$152.00    72.00    90.00   rangerone314
$152.50    51.25   117.00   vtsnowedin
$168.00    68.00   148.00   Bas
$168.00    69.00   119.00   Hawkcreek
$168.25    62.50   162.47   biofuel13
$169.00    69.00   113.00   pablonite
$219.00    75.00   201.00   Armageddon

Sort by Low
$120.00    10.00    70.00   Repent
$ 78.51    27.25    27.25   mcgowanjm
$138.95    32.16    55.12   wisconsin_cur
$ 88.00    35.00    40.00   AlexdeLarge
$ 88.00    38.00    63.00   TreeFarmer
$ 90.00    40.00     0.00   Comp_Lex
$ 95.00    40.00    80.00   Nike62
$120.00    45.00    65.00   TheDude
$152.50    51.25   117.00   vtsnowedin
$ 98.00    55.00    60.00   sparky
$ 96.00    58.00    73.00   TheAntiDoomer
$100.00    60.00     0.00   Carlhole
$140.00    60.00   120.00   davep
$150.00    60.00   100.00   thylacine
$ 96.50    62.40    78.25   PeakOiler
$168.25    62.50   162.47   biofuel13
$120.00    64.00   110.00   obixman
$ 84.00    64.00    68.00   OilFinder2
$119.00    64.38   102.76   ColossalContrarian
$135.00    65.00   125.00   careinke
$101.00    65.00    78.00   Gerben
$125.15    66.60    83.73   Daniel_Plainview
$168.00    68.00   148.00   Bas
$104.00    68.00    98.00   lateStarter
$ 92.00    68.00    87.00   SeaGypsy
$168.00    69.00   119.00   Hawkcreek
$169.00    69.00   113.00   pablonite
$100.00    70.00    90.00   eXpat
$140.00    70.00   105.00   IslandCrow
$118.00    70.00    90.00   jdmartin
$112.00    71.00   102.00   SteinarN
$136.00    72.00   123.00   2cher
$147.00    72.00   137.00   eastbay
$152.00    72.00    90.00   rangerone314
$110.00    74.00    90.00   Cog
$125.00    75.00    99.00   alpha480v
$219.00    75.00   201.00   Armageddon

Sort by Close
$100.00    60.00     0.00   Carlhole
$ 90.00    40.00     0.00   Comp_Lex
$ 78.51    27.25    27.25   mcgowanjm
$ 88.00    35.00    40.00   AlexdeLarge
$138.95    32.16    55.12   wisconsin_cur
$ 98.00    55.00    60.00   sparky
$ 88.00    38.00    63.00   TreeFarmer
$120.00    45.00    65.00   TheDude
$ 84.00    64.00    68.00   OilFinder2
$120.00    10.00    70.00   Repent
$ 96.00    58.00    73.00   TheAntiDoomer
$101.00    65.00    78.00   Gerben
$ 96.50    62.40    78.25   PeakOiler
$ 95.00    40.00    80.00   Nike62
$125.15    66.60    83.73   Daniel_Plainview
$ 92.00    68.00    87.00   SeaGypsy
$110.00    74.00    90.00   Cog
$100.00    70.00    90.00   eXpat
$118.00    70.00    90.00   jdmartin
$152.00    72.00    90.00   rangerone314
$104.00    68.00    98.00   lateStarter
$125.00    75.00    99.00   alpha480v
$150.00    60.00   100.00   thylacine
$112.00    71.00   102.00   SteinarN
$119.00    64.38   102.76   ColossalContrarian
$140.00    70.00   105.00   IslandCrow
$120.00    64.00   110.00   obixman
$169.00    69.00   113.00   pablonite
$152.50    51.25   117.00   vtsnowedin
$168.00    69.00   119.00   Hawkcreek
$140.00    60.00   120.00   davep
$136.00    72.00   123.00   2cher
$135.00    65.00   125.00   careinke
$147.00    72.00   137.00   eastbay
$168.00    68.00   148.00   Bas
$168.25    62.50   162.47   biofuel13
$219.00    75.00   201.00   Armageddon

[shortonsense]

hi $95
lo $55
close $75

[Midessa]

Awesome it's time for another Oil Price Challenge! I wanted to play last year but I didn't want to lose any love or respect by joining late. I am so glad I remembered to get in this year. So here are my picks:

Low 75
High 100
Close 100

[Comp_Lex]

a. Is the system even stable right now? If it is, and it's a bit IF, maybe it will get back to something that approaches the pattern that was happening in the 2003-2006 time frame. Maybe it will even extend the trend line that was established during that time, a high of maybe 100to 110 or so, a low in the 50's and the yearly average someplace in the 705 range as predicted by the big banks.

b. Is there something that approaches a "base" for oil prices, and if so what is the likelihood that we will see it at some point. Keep in mind that historically, crude oil prices should be relaxing this time of year. In fact, in three out of those years, the year end price was pretty close to the low for the following year....The only other year that that did not happen was 2007, and we all know what happened in 2008....

c. Is the overall economy stable enough, and is OPEC still strong enough, to sustain prices at these levels? How hungry will Venezuela and Russia and Mexico get in the coming year, and will they dump oil into the market to keep their economies running? A counterargument can be made that the current price is silly, it really belongs somewhere between here and 20 in the next 12 months.... Mcgowanjm has a scenario that kind of resembles that idea, and it is not far fetched....OF2 has also a pretty plausible scenario.

I can give you my own answers on your questions based on my own analysis:

a) Looking at the supply and demand curves, we know that the average price will go up in the near future and extending the trend set in the 2003-2006 timeframe. This is by the way not a stable system. It will go up until the economy crashes.

b) Looking at my own analysis I've made with my software, the lower bound estimation lies around $40-$50 / barrel, which is quite a realistic price in my opinion.

c) Looking at the supply and demand curves using data from BP, ASPO, Koppelaar (Peak Oil Netherlands Foundation) and Hubbert Curves, I believe that the counterargument is quite silly. I'm not familiar with the scenario, but if those prices will be reached next year, then or the economy is failing or the economy is doing well and there will be a major correction to +$100 / barrel.

[pup55]

I didn't want to lose any love or respect by joining late

Yes, these commodities are also in short supply....

Welcome to the fun. We are up to about 40 participants I think we had 45 or so the last couple of years, Time will tell whether we will get any better.

[TheDude]

Here's punching a simple trend line through 1999-2009 and extrapolating out to 2015:



On an annual basis the price was:

Code: Select all

Year    WTI       Diff
1999      19.34   4.92
2000      30.38   11.04
2001      25.98   -4.4
2002      26.18   0.2
2003      31.08   4.9
2004      41.51   10.43
2005      56.64   15.13
2006      66.05   9.41
2007      72.34   6.29
2008      99.67   27.33
2009    61.33    -38.34


Were 2008/2009 just outliers? Diff between the two is -11.01. Average of set is 4.26. 2010 could just be a tedious slog towards a high of $90, or spike and crash like '08. Are we starting from a higher baseline? It was curious that the startups of megaprojects in the wiki loosely correlated with prices in 2009, too - Khurais Ph 1 coming online in the middle of the year presaged a drop in price. Maybe this was just investors feeling reassured.



Like I said before, we aren't bringing much online this year.



If the wiki data is correct we'll need to eat up some of that spare capacity this year to stay ahead of the game.

[pup55]

Hi, TheDude...

I am intriged by the trend idea;;;;;

Fundamentals are litoo easy to be wrong on this year... I still do not think that we have hit the bottom in the real estate market, nor on diesel, nor on jet fuel.