[jimmyk]

Hi joined the site to see what was here and to get some perspective. I respect the opinions I see here. Obviously we are indeed going to run out of all fossil fuels and that is going to happen sooner then later. When i was a very young my mother use to tell me that when she was young... back in the late 30s early 40s that she use to think ... we keep using oil and it took thousands of years to make we're going to run out of it some day...

Do I think there is going to be a complete and total social and political collapse on the globe? I certainly give that a percentage possibility. we will definitely have a bery different world some several decades from now, that is for sure.

So I ask these questions:

1) If oil is running out, then is Iran really building nuclear power plants for the future?

2) Dubai is building up it's country as a tourist destination for a post oil world. How will people get there?

3) Are there any alt. energies that can help us strectch the global reserves?

4) Is the IEA a reliable source of information?

5) At what level of barrels per day is the maximum? The IEA says demand will hit 87.2 million this year. Is that it? Is it 90? 100? Are we teetering on it now at 86.2?

6) How many people here now are survivalists?

Those are just a few for now. I look for to your answers! I am quite sincere about these question and hope you answer them with the same sincerity.

[Cashmere]

Jimmy - good post, good questions.

1) If oil is running out, then is Iran really building nuclear power plants for the future?

Bing!!
Iran is not filled with dummies. They already have a massive internal problem with energy, and they have to import most of their gasoline and diesel.

Just like for France, the U.S., and every other country on mother earth, it makes HUGE sense for Iran to establish a nuclear base for electricity production; they are smart enough to know the oil will soon no longer be exportable and will, instead, be used to fuel internal demands.

2) Dubai is building up it's country as a tourist destination for a post oil world. How will people get there?

They won't. Dubai - poster child for wasted oil wealth and disturbing misuse of our oil gift.

3) Are there any alt. energies that can help us strectch the global reserves?

Not by much. In other words, the key here is NOT to find something to substitute for oil, but rather to figure out how to <b>consume less</b>. It will be a long, sad story in the making over the next 10 years as our idiot Congress and desperate citizens attempt to continue the status quo.

A very big moment in your development to PO believer . . .

Understanding that there IS NO substitute for oil, there are only things that can, in small amounts, add energy to the whole equation.

4) Is the IEA a reliable source of information?

Not sure - other members (Big Tex, Roccman, DP, etcera) will know for sure - I figure any U.S. agency is a liar of the worst kind, international, I don't know.

5) At what level of barrels per day is the maximum? The IEA says demand will hit 87.2 million this year. Is that it? Is it 90? 100? Are we teetering on it now at 86.2?

I don't know how you can measure "demand".

If oil was 1 dollar a barrel, I could see the world using 200 mbd no problem.

So, to me, "demand" is unhelpful.

More importantly, every single barrel of oil that is extracted WILL be used. The only question is, how high will price go?

At some price - 200, 250, 400, 1,000 who knows - you will obtain a balance and the price will stabilize.

In other words, I think the demand for oil as an unsubstitutable resource is so great that there is no chance that any pumped oil (with some exceptions for very heavy or sour) will be bought and used, the only question is, at what point does it become too expensive for some users, thereby creating a ceiling?

It's not possible that oil keeps going up in price inversely with supply.

6) How many people here now are survivalists?

I'd guess all the true PO believers, which is most of this site, are.

[RedStateGreen]

Hi joined the site to see what was here and to get some perspective.

Welcome

2) Dubai is building up it's country as a tourist destination for a post oil world. How will people get there?

The rich will always be able to afford vacations. I bet most of them will end up living nearby.

6) How many people here now are survivalists?

Define survivalist.

[Ayoob]

1) If oil is running out, then is Iran really building nuclear power plants for the future?

I think so

2) Dubai is building up it's country as a tourist destination for a post oil world. How will people get there?

It doesn't matter. Your average American will never see it in person... who cares what the Dubaiians do with their money?

3) Are there any alt. energies that can help us strectch the global reserves?

Unless you count nuclear as alternative.... nope.

4) Is the IEA a reliable source of information?

When compared against what? ASPO? Press releases from Shell?

5) At what level of barrels per day is the maximum? The IEA says demand will hit 87.2 million this year. Is that it? Is it 90? 100? Are we teetering on it now at 86.2?

This is probably it, but if global production goes up to 90 it doesn't really make much difference to me. Same as whether the peak year was 2005, 2008, or 2012. The further out it is the better, but it doesn't change things all that much for me. What would you do differently if the year of peak production was 2006 vs 2005? Or if it's 2008? I was kind of obsessed with the exact moment of the tipping point but now I don't really care.

6) How many people here now are survivalists?

The group is split into three general camps. You've got your survivalists who want to "make it" one way or the other. Then you've got your suicide fans who are waiting for a wave of something to wash them out to sea. There's something called the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement, and there seems to be something in common between those whackjobs and our whackjobs. And finally, you've got the ones who think it's not really going to affect them very much. I don't know why the last group is here, and they don't seem to be able to explain it very well either.

I very much remember being new to this whole thing, and it can seem very surreal. I'm glad I've had a couple years to get used to the idea and to rearrange things so I can be confident in what I do from here on out.

It's gonna be a whole new world.

Dmitry Orlov's essays were pretty enlightening. I bet we'll see something similar to the post-Soviet Union situation, but with more homelessness and violence.

There just isn't very much that binds Americans together anymore. What would keep the peace once the money's gone?

[killJOY]

There is one answer that pret' near addresses all your questions:

NO ONE KNOWS.

[gampy]

I would like to address the alternative energy question.

I don't think there is a real good alternative to petroleum as a liquid fuel. At least as it is used now.

Ethanol will run an internal combustion engine, but it will never be as concentrated an energy source as oil. Never mind that to power the world's fleet of cars and aircraft, half the world would wind up starving.

I think it would be wise to think of alternative energy along the lines of "alternative use of energy". Alternative energy does not work unless we find alternative ways of harnessing it for useful, efficient work.

Get rid of modes of transport that depend on fossil fuel. Namely the automobile, and aircraft. Once the fuel for these modes becomes scarce or too expensive, I think you might see a concerted effort and investment in "alternative transport". Not just alternative fuel.

The world needs to start thinking about how they transport themselves and goods. Electric trains, trams, and wind powered sailing vessels. Solar powered heating, and refrigeration has come a long way, and shows some promise as a means of weaning ourselves off natural gas or home heating fuel. It's just that there is not a lot of investment and infrastructure built around these technologies yet.

As long as the automobile, and the happy motoring lifestyle persist, these alternatives will remain untried. But I can sense a sea change coming. people are thinking a lot more seriously about how they use energy. And where that energy comes from.

[jimmyk]

The rich will always be able to afford vacations. I bet most of them will end up living nearby.

But won't wealth be redefined as oil disappears? At some point paper money and money counted electronically will have no value, or a significantly diminished value. Dollars before oil were actually attached to gold. Now the dollar is attached to a promise to keep Saudi Arabia safe and allow oil to be exchnaged in US dollar currency...

Define survivalist.

Living in an area away from others, and becoming self sufficient from the use of any traditional power sources. Growing your own food, stocking guns and ammunition for self defense... Something in that realm...

[Kingcoal]

If you are new to peak oil, you have to start understanding that our entire economy, our lifestyle, floats on a sea of oil. Oil is the legion of slaves that supports our standard of living and "raises all boats." Oil is a very potent source of energy which represents a liquid pot of gold under presure; all we have to do is liberate it and it forces itself to the surface into our hands. Oil is manufactured by natural forces over hundreds of millions of years. Alternatives are like an unfinished product, they require that we add energy to complete them and generally that energy expended exceeds the energy ultimately realized when put to work. The other problem with alternatives is scale, or lack thereof. You might be able to produce an alternative energy source with a positive energy return on energy invested, but you simply can't produce enough of it fast enough to satisfy demand and you can see what just a tiny bit of demand exceeding supply does at the gas pump. To sum up, the only thing to do is to change our lifestyle, at least until someone invents something, which doesn't seem to be likely.

[jimmyk]

Oil is the legion of slaves that supports our standard of living and "raises all boats."

That's an interesting way of describing oil... I like it.

[burtonridr]

Hi joined the site to see what was here and to get some perspective. I respect the opinions I see here. Obviously we are indeed going to run out of all fossil fuels and that is going to happen sooner then later. When i was a very young my mother use to tell me that when she was young... back in the late 30s early 40s that she use to think ... we keep using oil and it took thousands of years to make we're going to run out of it some day...

Do I think there is going to be a complete and total social and political collapse on the globe? I certainly give that a percentage possibility. we will definitely have a bery different world some several decades from now, that is for sure.

So I ask these questions:

1) If oil is running out, then is Iran really building nuclear power plants for the future?

2) Dubai is building up it's country as a tourist destination for a post oil world. How will people get there?

3) Are there any alt. energies that can help us strectch the global reserves?

4) Is the IEA a reliable source of information?

5) At what level of barrels per day is the maximum? The IEA says demand will hit 87.2 million this year. Is that it? Is it 90? 100? Are we teetering on it now at 86.2?

6) How many people here now are survivalists?

Those are just a few for now. I look for to your answers! I am quite sincere about these question and hope you answer them with the same sincerity.

Welcome Jimmy,

1. Who know for sure, we could speculate and play the what if game all day long. I actually believe the US is preventing some countries from building nuclear power plants because those countries have not agreed to pay us or buy uranium from us or help us financially. I think they are trying to gain the upper hand in future energy.

2. Dubai is not building up its country for post PO, they have used oil just like everyone else to boom.

3. Natural Gas, Solar Power, Hydro electric, etc. They can all help stretch the reserves. A better question would be which one make the most sense economically and which will be sustainable.

4. Define reliable...

5. If you mean the maximum global output or supply? No one knows for sure, but it is in that range. There are way to many factors to calculate into that equation and to many discrepancies in reporting reserves, output, etc.

6. How many people here are survivalists? I dont know do a poll or something. I'm not sure if I can fully file myself under that profile.

[burtonridr]

There just isn't very much that binds Americans together anymore. What would keep the peace once the money's gone?

Seriously dude, do you think that people cant stay sane without money?

Just because your crazy doesnt mean everyone else is

I think what happened in the soviet union is a good example of what might happen here.