[allenwrench]

Which industries will follow the demise of the airlines?

I think RV companies and boat manufactures are right behind the airlines.

Maybe the lodging biz? The multitude of motels along the trekking route to Fla may suffer. Or will the seniors keep on migrating no matter how high gas gets?

I've cut out my driving trips to Fla. to go to Ginnie Springs for diving. Too expensive hauling my trailer for what I get out of it. Also Ginnie raised their rates as did many of the Fla springs. So I just say NO to all these price raises as my budget does not keep up with it all.

Maybe the Harley Davidson crowd is in for a hit? They get 35 mpg on average, but cost more than many cars do.

What other industries / sectors are headed for the scrap heap?

[joeltrout]

Obviously any industry that fuel is a large part of their cost.

Also, I think any businesses that depend on "just-in-time shipping". Many businesses do not have large storage areas and cannot hold a lot of inventory therefore they rely on nightly shipments of goods.

That is not a problem when you can arrange a truck shipment of supplies any time you want. But as truckers start dropping off the map then some businesses will have a lot of empty shelves because they are not getting daily shipments of goods.

joeltrout

[Dreamtwister]

The trucking industry is screwed. They are protesting in the UK again, and it's only going to get worse.

I think the boating industry will be able to last a little longer, but they will have to transition from bloated yachts to very, very fast speedboats. Yes, there will definitely be a market for small boats that can do 80 knots...yo ho ho!

[Gerben]

The trucking industry is screwed. They are protesting in the UK again, and it's only going to get worse.
I think the boating industry will be able to last a little longer, but they will have to transition from bloated yachts to very, very fast speedboats. Yes, there will definitely be a market for small boats that can do 80 knots...yo ho ho!

The energy used by a boat is increases with the square of the speed. There will be a big market for slower boats with sails, solar powerd electric engines and/or drawn through a canal by horses/people.

[smallpoxgirl]

I think it's a mistake to think that the airline industry is going to demise. It's going to undergo upheaval, contraction, and consolidation and people are going to have to rethink their business model, but the airlines aren't going away. Not any time soon.

Ditto shipping. The problem with both shipping and airlines is that they are super-competitive AND they're heavily dependent on fossil fuel use. It sets up these huge games of chicken where the first one to blink and raise prices goes out of bankrupt. Ultimately the survivors will soldier on.

Certain businesses within different sectors are very likely to go belly up from failure to plan for high fuel costs- e.g Ford, GM, and American Airlines. Others, for example Toyota and Southwest Airline, will reap the profit.

[misterno]

How can the airlines survive with $200 oil? How can an airline sell cheapest NY-LA tickets for $1000 and still survive?

It does not make sense. Bus companies like Greyhound will thrive.

[emersonbiggins]

I think it's a mistake to think that the airline industry is going to demise. It's going to undergo upheaval, contraction, and consolidation and people are going to have to rethink their business model, but the airlines aren't going away. Not any time soon. ... Others, for example Toyota and Southwest Airline, will reap the profit.

If the airline industry contracts by my WAG, say 50%, and the average ticket prices double or triple (well on their way now), how can that be seen as anything but a demise?

Their business model was ill to work with $15/bbl crude, requiring bailouts to the tune of billions to stay solvent, and using the revolving door of bankruptcy protection to paper over red ink. And now with oil well over $100/bbl, it's hard to believe that the subsidies and/or ticket prices can increase enough to sustain revenues, much less turn a profit (something airlines are want to do anyways).

Like misterno sez, go Greyhound.

[NeoPeasant]

Pretty much any industry devoted to providing a good or service that is not necessary for subsistence living is at risk. Unfortunately this describes nearly all of the U.S. economy.

Many will suffer terribly from unemployment. Some of us are preparing to enjoy it.

[smallpoxgirl]

If the airline industry contracts by my WAG, say 50%, and the average ticket prices double or triple (well on their way now), how can that be seen as anything but a demise?

That would be my guess as well. When I hear demise, I think of what just happened to ATA. That was demise. Close the doors, lay off the employees, auction off the equipment, sell your office space for a trendy new restaurant to move in. That will happen to some of the airlines, but not all of them.

How can the airlines survive with $200 oil? How can an airline sell cheapest NY-LA tickets for $1000 and still survive?

Obviously they'll fly less trips. There are lots of people that would still pay $1000 to get from NY to LA rather than spend a week on a Greyhound bus.

[Twilight]

I often read economy class is loss-making and is subsidised by business class which more than pays its way. When push comes to shove, economy class will be ditched and airlines will return to something resembling the more exclusive business model of 50s and 60s. The brutal contraction this would entail could be called "demise", but airlines will stubbornly remain for a long time to come.

[Windmills]

I think a great many delivery services will be curtailed.
Pizza delivery
Flower delivery
FedEx, UPS, DHL. I think postal services will largely revert back to being more a part of the government again. I believe that's provided for in the Constitution.
Expensive delivery services could contract or destroy a number of internet based services, such as Amazon and Ebay, and a host of other mail-order shops. Shipping costs are already destroying whatever competitive edge internet shops had.
Shuttle services.
Construction could take another hit as municipalities cut back on road construction and reserve their budgets for maintenance.
A number of restaurants will fold as people continue to cut back on discretionary spending.
Tourism will certainly take a hit.
Anything else that you can think of that can't adapt to the demise of the ICE automobile and expensive oil and oil products.
Many types of businesses may not disappear completely, but rather contract and become expensive, once again reserving a number of domains for the rich.

[smallpoxgirl]

I often read economy class is loss-making and is subsidised by business class which more than pays its way. When push comes to shove, economy class will be ditched and airlines will return to something resembling the more exclusive business model of 50s and 60s. The brutal contraction this would entail could be called "demise", but airlines will stubbornly remain for a long time to come.

I don't know about international, but on domestic service, as I understand it, it's pretty rare that someone actually pays for a first class ticket. The vast majority of people riding first class are frequent flier elite levels that get free upgrades.

[allenwrench]

Obviously any industry that fuel is a large part of their cost.
Also, I think any businesses that depend on "just-in-time shipping". Many businesses do not have large storage areas and cannot hold a lot of inventory therefore they rely on nightly shipments of goods.
That is not a problem when you can arrange a truck shipment of supplies any time you want. But as truckers start dropping off the map then some businesses will have a lot of empty shelves because they are not getting daily shipments of goods.
joeltrout

Shipping?

Mail order buyers may feel it if UPS gets too high?

[joeltrout]

Mail order buyers may feel it if UPS gets too high?

Mail-order brides might be a dying business.

joeltrout

[allenwrench]

The trucking industry is screwed. They are protesting in the UK again, and it's only going to get worse.
I think the boating industry will be able to last a little longer, but they will have to transition from bloated yachts to very, very fast speedboats. Yes, there will definitely be a market for small boats that can do 80 knots...yo ho ho!

Europe has it worse than US. In UK was told diesel is going for $10 a gallon.

Trucking companies just tack on fuel surcharge which the independent cannot always do. I understand it is more hurt with independent truckers but I may be wrong.

When my jet ski cost a hundred to fill er up it will be history. Will probably just give it away if I can't sell it then. Anything that sucks down gas will be next to worthless. What good would it be if you could not get gas? Big paperweight?

Maybe a Hummer may be a good lawn decoration to keep the grass from growing so you wouldn't have to pay to cut it?

[allenwrench]

The energy used by a boat is increases with the square of the speed. .

I can attest to that.

[allenwrench]

I think it's a mistake to think that the airline industry is going to demise. It's going to undergo upheaval, contraction, and consolidation and people are going to have to rethink their business model, but the airlines aren't going away. Not any time soon.
Ditto shipping. The problem with both shipping and airlines is that they are super-competitive AND they're heavily dependent on fossil fuel use. It sets up these huge games of chicken where the first one to blink and raise prices goes out of bankrupt. Ultimately the survivors will soldier on.
Certain businesses within different sectors are very likely to go belly up from failure to plan for high fuel costs- e.g Ford, GM, and American Airlines. Others, for example Toyota and Southwest Airline, will reap the profit.

Dunno...may be wishful thinking.

I don't have a crystal ball, but oil isn't even high yet. What they going to do when crude skyrockets?

Airlines don't thrive on small scale, just catering to biz flyers.

And businesses themselves will be downsizing as well as the crude dries up. Sure they may have private style mini jets, but I don't see the airlines keep on keeping on in the future if crude keeps on the trend that peak modeling forecast.

[cube]

The energy used by a boat is increases with the square of the speed. .

I can attest to that.

It's not just boats it's everything.

and this doesn't even take into account air or water resistance. Of course we do NOT live in a frictionless environment but such formulas give a good starting point to shoot from the hip.

[Dreamtwister]

There will be a big market for slower boats with sails, solar powerd electric engines and/or drawn through a canal by horses/people.

It depends on what you intend to do with the boat. I thought my "yo ho ho"ing would offer a clue.

[joeltrout]

There will be a big market for slower boats with sails, solar powerd electric engines and/or drawn through a canal by horses/people.

It depends on what you intend to do with the boat. I thought my "yo ho ho"ing would offer a clue.

Yup, its pretty hard to rob somebody using a sail boat.

joeltrout