Fayadi wrote:Dear all,
I have been browsing this site for sometime. I am a believer in peak oil but I have different belief in its potential damage to mankind. I totally disagree with the end of easy oil, the modern age comes to an end. I believe it will bring about to an economic depression for about a decade that will force the entire world to change the way it produce and consume energy. Peak oil brings about depression, mankind suffer for 10 years and things go back to normal. That's my belief. Now about that, I would like to raise a question. Doesn't any of you have faith in the ability of free market to mitigate the Peak Oil (Some purist capitalist even believe that free market will solve peak oil without any significant problem). Like fuel prices at astronomical cost, Doesn't it will bring about new innovations to produce energy like new technology biofuel to replace our transportation fuel. At a certain price, there will be a lot of new technology to produce electricity as there will be less and less oil for power station. So let me again repeat my belief, I believe in peak oil but I don't believe the gigantic storm that comes with it like the end of modern civilization or modern age. Another question to raise? Do people believe in the doomsday scenario underestimated the innovative capability of mankind?
You are entitled to your beliefs. But, I'd lump your beliefs in the category of what the atheists call wishful thinking. Do you know that mankind has created thousands of 'gods' over the years all through 'wishful thinking' my friend?
http://www.godfinder.org/
When you go outdoors just look around you and picture how life will change with no crude oil. Put a halt to everything crude powers or is a raw material of and then put your imagination to work on that picture.
Being an agnostic myself I will readily admit I may be wrong in my future thought. The brainiacs may discover how to burn water and air and make tires and asphalt from corn. But in my own life I am not gambling on that happening. I am preparing for the worst. My survival mentor says to prepare for the unthinkable one must first think the unthinkable.
I've talked about PO to other forums like kayakers, mountain bikers and backpackers. Most of them just blow me away and make jokes about PO. Other forums like the RV crowd say I am an alarmist and the political forums ban me telling me I am promoting propaganda. So for the sake of our inner peace we must accept our job is to just plant the seeds...but we cannot force them to sprout in others.
Many people say nuclear will fix al our woes. Well, uranium is not an endless natural recourse nor is coal. We got other problems right in line with peak fish and food We got peak water, peak uranium, peak crude oil and peak NG to name a few.
The World Coal Institute estimates world energy reserves as follows:
"At current production levels coal will be available for at least the next 155 years compared to 41 years for oil and 65 years for gas."
http://www.worldcoal.org/pages/content/ ... ?PageID=21
Even though this was written a few years ago and it is based on 'current production and consumption' it gives the same haunting message to the generations to come.
Have you ever thought about how much of our life is dependent on natural gas for cooking, heating and hot water?
And do you know that much of your life is dependent on natural gas outside its use as an energy source?
We will run out of natural gas, just as we deplete our crude supplies in the near future.
http://www.amazon.com/High-Noon-Natural ... 1931498539
Natural gas is a raw material in many of our products we depend on.
Almost all the helium we produce comes from natural gas.
Propane, synthetic fertilizers, ammonia?
They are totally dependent on natural gas.
Our population boom was fueled by synthetic fertilizers made from natural; gas. Once the gas dries up so does the fertilizer and a shortage of fertilizer equals a shortage of food.
Natural; gas is also used as an energy source to produce steel, glass, paper, clothing, brick, electricity
http://www.enotes.com/how-products-ency ... atural-gas
http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2003 ... tgasn.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts ... TISUSEDFOR
But lets get back to crude oil.
Even if we did find out how to burn water for energy, petrochemicals make up a large portion of crude's importance to mankind. Roughly 9% of every barrel of crude goes to petrochemical use. If we stopped burning crude this instant, we would still suck the wells dry, albeit not as quickly, just from petrochemical use.
Some work has been done with making plastics from corn, but it can't touch the variety of plastic and rubber products that crude produces.
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-n ... astic.html
So even if we all stop driving we will just be postponing the inevitable that our artificial way of living is going to change in the not so distant future.
A partial list of products made from crude:
Solvents Diesel Motor Oil Bearing Grease
Ink Floor Wax Ballpoint Pens Football Cleats
Upholstery Sweaters Boats Insecticides
Bicycle Tires Sports Car Bodies Nail Polish Fishing lures
Dresses Tires Golf Bags Perfumes
Cassettes Dishwasher Tool Boxes Shoe Polish
Motorcycle Helmet Caulking Petroleum Jelly Transparent Tape
CD Player Faucet Washers Antiseptics Clothesline
Curtains Food Preservatives Basketballs Soap
Vitamin Capsules Antihistamines Purses Shoes
Dashboards Cortisone Deodorant Footballs
Putty Dyes Panty Hose Refrigerant
Percolators Life Jackets Rubbing Alcohol Linings
Skis TV Cabinets Shag Rugs Electrician's Tape
Tool Racks Car Battery Cases Epoxy Paint
Mops Slacks Insect Repellent Oil Filters
Umbrellas Yarn Fertilizers Hair Coloring
Roofing Toilet Seats Fishing Rods Lipstick
Denture Adhesive Linoleum Ice Cube Trays Synthetic Rubber
Speakers Plastic Wood Electric Blankets Glycerin
Tennis Rackets Rubber Cement Fishing Boots Dice
Nylon Rope Candles Trash Bags House Paint
Water Pipes Hand Lotion Roller Skates Surf Boards
Shampoo Wheels Paint Rollers Shower Curtains
Guitar Strings Luggage Aspirin Safety Glasses
Antifreeze Football Helmets Awnings Eyeglasses
Clothes Toothbrushes Ice Chests Footballs
Combs CD's Paint Brushes Detergents
Vaporizers Balloons Sun Glasses Tents
Heart Valves Crayons Parachutes Telephones
Enamel Pillows Dishes Cameras
Anesthetics Artificial Turf Artificial limbs Bandages
Dentures Model Cars Folding Doors Hair Curlers
Cold cream Movie film Soft Contact lenses Drinking Cups
Fan Belts Car Enamel Shaving Cream Ammonia
Refrigerators Golf Balls Toothpaste Gasoline
From this list we can see that we are still massively depend on crude for our non sustainable lifestyle. There is no replacement for crude...crude is in the details of our life.
Book and DVD list. All available from your local library.
Beyond Oil: the view from Hubbert's Peak
by Deffeyes, Kenneth S.
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/
The Coming Economic Collapse - how you can thrive when oil costs $200 a barrel
by Leeb, Stephen
A Crude Awakening - the oil crash
Lava Productions AG, Switzerland DVD
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/
The End of Suburbia - oil depletion and the collapse of the American dream
by Greene, Gregory DVD
http://www.endofsuburbia.com/
Fed Up
http://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Angelo-Sac ... B000CNGC6G
High Noon for Natural Gas: the new energy crisis
by Darley, Julian
http://www.highnoon.ws/
The Long Emergency: surviving the converging catastrophes of the twenty-first century
by Kunstler, James Howard
Oil Apocalypse
History channel DVD
Peak Oil Survival: preparation for life after gridcrash
by McBay, Aric
Powerdown: options and actions for a post-carbon world
by Heinberg, Richard
Resource Wars: the new landscape of global conflict
by Klare, Michael T
http://www.amazon.com/Resource-Wars-Lan ... 0805055762
A Thousand Barrels a Second: the coming oil break point and the challenges facing an energy dependent world
by Tertzakian, Peter
Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
by Simmons, Matthew R.
Well written book examining 12 of the key Saudi oil fields.
Who Killed the Electric Car?
Sony Pictures Classics release
http://www.sonyclassics.com/whokilledtheelectriccar/
Zoom:the global race to fuel the car of the future
by Iain Carson and Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran.