[jesterx]

hi I am a long time watcher first time poster

I hear a lot of talk about the collapse of the US later this year.

Is this true???

I have been watching this guy on youtube The Current Economic Crisis

Not sure if it is just hype or a load of crap really......would love to know your thoughts

[sparky]

IMHO its a big truth wrapped in a lot of crap

The big truth
- All society live and grow on food energy and power energy

- Advanced economies have since the industrial revolution gone off sustainability ( it was a bitch )
- They expanded their population numbers and standard of living by using finite carbon deposits ,
- We are bumping against the limits of extraction
.....End of advanced economies ....

The crap

the market economies have cycles of growth / contraction
The abuse of the speculation are arbitrated by regular crashes
the guy mention a banker who hasn't see something like that in thirty years , well thirty five years ago was the first oil shock and it took ten years of bad medicine to get things going again
before that there was the great depression of the 30ies , before that still the great 1880 downturn , in the 1700 that was the great south sea bubble and the law bank collapse .
inflation is the natural reset button when people or government invent too much imaginary money ,
If you have fixed debt and adjusted income , you are laughing
if you have a fixed income ( pension ) and no income , you are crying .
the inflation of the 1970 was a god send to Britain it allowed successive government to whip out its massive obligation by starving its pensioners .

Everybody is totally obsessed with the price of petrol at the pump , that's the least problem ,
The real issue is the effect of the drop in the standard of living on the service industries , 80% in the States
That will lead to a strong rise in unemployment , increase off government cost while the revenues shrink .

Politicians are elected to tell people what they want to heard ,
the truth unfortunately is unspeakable

I don't believe in a sudden catastrophe , that nearly happened mid March with the bears stern collapse , for a couple of days , there was no floor underneath !! Wall Street was a disaster area
the reserve banks were throwing bags of money from helicopters to stop the gathering slide , it worked , just !

There is a good betting chance that we are heading into a decade of very serious belt tightening punctuated with the usual manic depressive newspapers headlines
The story will unfold probably during the second half of the year
my bets
inflation will seriously bite everybody , interest rates HAVE to go up
consumption will slow .

the double whammy of the food crisis is due
short term .....to a lousy 2006-7 harvest , thing will be a bit better this growing season , weather permitting

medium term ..... too many mouths fed with more expensive food will cut disposable incomes.

Long term ...6 billions people are scheduled for starvation.

[wisconsin_cur]

Having not seen the video,

they are two different questions 1) is the US on its way to collapse and decreased complexity and 2) will it happen later this year.

the first, it seems, you can have a good discussion about and come to some sort of conclusion for yourself.

The second is like trying to time the market or an earthquake. We can decide that there is a bubble or that a fault is due to give (question 1) but I am highly doubtful about anyones ability to time it beyond the general idea of soon or not soon (which of course means very different things between seismology and wall street).

Even if you believe "collapse is soon" I think it is hard to say, "within the next 6 months" and it may be tactically foolish since things could hang on for 8 months and then you have to spend two months defending yourself and that is just a pain and a distraction.

All that being said, I kind of like it when other people make predictions and put a date to it... it gives me something to read and think about when I need a break from my work around the homestead.

[3aidlillahi]

I think it's necessary to clarify what one means by "collapse". If it means the complete disintegration of the US into many de facto nations along mostly state-lines, then that's unlikely. But the US will hit a financial and economic collapse over the coming decades. That will severely weaken the US central government as revenues drop.

We will also be susceptible to foreign adventures a la Iraq. This will continue to weaken our military, diplomatic missions and our economy. We will be hit further by the decline of the Mexican state, which faces a full-blown collapse which could very well lead to tens of millions of Mexicans, not to mention other Central Americans, fleeing northward. They will congregate in Southern states for the most part. This will push many states (NM, AZ, CA, TX, etc) to a Hispanic majority and maybe even by wide margins such as in NM which is already at 41%. A economic decline of the US will likely hit these communities very hard, especially given their dense living arrangements. This could push them to radicalize and, with a weakened central government, it's certainly possible to see some of these states breaking off.

But overall, the US will remain intact for a long time given our general wealth as a nation even if we won't remain at such a status as we are currently provided with.

[sparky]

For furthering the discussion
a catastrophic collapse of the U.S.of A. like an earthquake would follows pre existing fault lines .

I can see some ..
1- bubble credit , China ,S. Korea , Japan , Saudi Arabia and a few other own most of the U.S. government bonds .
cutting federal taxes means the U.S. Dollar is dependent on the kindness of strangers
2- Manufacturing is in bad shape , that's were the well paying jobs are for joey blow , you can't trade your way out of trouble with services
3- ethnic mix , when most people have a job they are much more accommodating , when there is a lot of unemployment in the suburbs , the hunt for the bastards is on.

[Cashmere]

Never guess at timing. Could take 50 years to unwind.

The Byzantines were around in some form or another for hundreds of years.

As for direction, that's easy.

Down.

[BigTex]

Study Great Britain in the last 100 years.

I think that may be a path the U.S. will travel, except the U.S. won't have another U.S. to lean on for help.

Think about where Great Britain would be today without the U.S.'s help. Whatever picture you get in your mind is probably where the U.S. is headed.

We've spread ourselves all over the world like Britain did and we've run up too much debt pursuing stupid foreign policies like Britain did.

[Homesteader]

Study Great Britain in the last 100 years.
I think that may be a path the U.S. will travel, except the U.S. won't have another U.S. to lean on for help.
Think about where Great Britain would be today without the U.S.'s help. Whatever picture you get in your mind is probably where the U.S. is headed.
We've spread ourselves all over the world like Britain did and we've run up too much debt pursuing stupid foreign policies like Britain did.

So Germany is going to successfully invade the U.S.? Just kidding.

[jesterx]

defiantly some interesting things that people have responded here with thanks.

I think someone in here the other day said that the market collapses every 7 years or so...and the last dot com crash was about that.

so we will see a major move on market soon im guessing..hmmmm

[mos6507]

So Germany is going to successfully invade the U.S.? Just kidding.

Mexico is already doing that.

[BigTex]

defiantly some interesting things that people have responded here with thanks.
I think someone in here the other day said that the market collapses every 7 years or so...and the last dot com crash was about that.
so we will see a major move on market soon im guessing..hmmmm

Your 7 year cycle is correct, but it has been preceded by an oil price spike every time since the early 1970s, as it was this time as well.

The interesting question will be what happens when oil prices don't collapse in response to this recession as they have every time since the early 1970s.

Where does the catalyst for further economic growth come from if there is no cheap energy on the other side of this recession?

That, in my view, is the key question, and it will be about 24 months before we have an answer.

[Micki]

The BIG question is.....why on earths name is this thread in the Australia & New Zealand Discussion?????

And oh..yes....US IS going DOWN.
But I and many others have written so much about the reasons for thinking this, so do a bit of search.
Next read about the opinions of Peter Schiff (who was laughed at for years when he talked about rh proprty crash and other symptoms of loose monetary policies), presidential candidate Ron Paul, Investment guru Jim Rogers etc. You have plenty of good videos with all these on youtube. (Also Marc Faber is very entertaining)
Also have a look at how people like Dick Cheney, Buffet, Bill Gates etc. invest. They all believe in US$ drop.

[manu]

defiantly some interesting things that people have responded here with thanks.
I think someone in here the other day said that the market collapses every 7 years or so...and the last dot com crash was about that.
so we will see a major move on market soon im guessing..hmmmm

What you are seeing is a world economic crash. Then you will see a nuclear war. People that survive will have to live simple and I hope they will have a higher conciousness than they do now.

[mmasters]

Is The Collapse Of The US Just A Load Of B.S???

No.

[3aidlillahi]

The BIG question is.....why on earths name is this thread in the Australia & New Zealand Discussion?????

Because we're taking you guys with us!

[sparky]

While most Aussies would accept the premises that Americans are a somewhat challenged lot , you are most welcome , we have sufficiently low standards to take you in , after all we have taken in Poms ( Brits ) for years and hardly feel the worst for it .
the bad news is you will have to understand cricket
the good news is you will discover rugby .

[alokin]

Also have a look at how people like Dick Cheney, Buffet, Bill Gates etc. invest. They all believe in US$ drop.

and how did you spy were they invest??

but that's really not Australia NZ discussion. The film told nothing new, superficial. Would be interesting watching some of the same for OZ.

[grampybone]

Is a collapse likely?

Yes I believe it will happen.

[Micki]

and how did you spy were they invest??

This has all been made public. Not all their investments of course, but Dick Cheney has some million in a fund that profits from US$ crash and the others have made public statements that they think US$ is going down and are investing overseas. I think Euro dominated investments have been preferred (officially).
Sorry, don't have time to dig for links for ya.

[alokin]

thanks, that's sufficient. Bad guy wins.