[jane]

The more I read about the drop in oil production, the more it becomes apparent to me its very serious. While I am not as pessimistic as some, and have a fairly optimistic view that we will somehow cope (lets keep it at optimistic and not naive people) things inevitably have to change. Have we seen the seeds for this in hybrid cars and solar heating? Are those technologies going to skyrocket?
I know for a fact OPEC countries will crumble and I really look forward to it! Unfortunately America may very well crumble as well, is there any way to stop what seems like the inevitable decline of American global power?
At times I want to bury my head in the sand and hope it goes away like most in denial, but I know whats happening and I cant deny it. Other times I really question what will happen? Has anyone experienced these mixed emotions?

I wonder if Saudi Arabia will try to harvest huge corn fields in an effort to stay on top? then they'll come up with OCOEC (Organization of the Corn Oil Exporting Countries) hehehe

[eastbay]

jane, what happens next depends on how much you prepare. Read up on that. Do as much as you can, but start with fitness and eating right because getting in shape is free for most people. Eating right will save money too.

Poverty is on its way. Gradually tone down your lifestyle so you are better adapted. Becoms as self sufficient as your situation allows. Many will suffer and there's not much you can do about that. You can impact your family and close friends if they'll listen... and most won't.

[Cashmere]

Deep Thoughts, with Jack Handy and Jane.

[Homesteader]

I wonder if Saudi Arabia will try to harvest huge corn fields in an effort to stay on top?

No, they won't. They have already instituted a graduated reduction in subsidies to completely stop growing wheat by 2016 due to falling/depleted aquifers. Somehow the economics don't work when pumping water up 3000'. Corn requires much more water to grow than wheat.

[Kingcoal]

According to what we've hashed out on this board for the past several years, expect a surge in drilling. The stage is set for politicians to allow drilling in currently off limits areas.However, oil companies are very wary and don't want a repeat of the mid eighties. Hell, GWB lost a lot in that period.

The problem however, is that most of the new reservoirs being discovered are either small and/or expensive to extract. That leaves existing reserves controlled by governments in unstable areas. Demand destruction is inevitable.

Listen Jane, things aren't going to fall apart overnight. It's more like a slow decay. Every year, we will produce less than the previous year. Right now, people are reacting in predictable fashion. They are waiting for things to "return to normal." People are expecting a breather so we can catch up. Unfortunately, it's a Gaussian curve, which means that the downward slope is exponential, not linear.

The most positive thing that can happen is for people to come to grips with reality and understand that we will never produce more oil than we are now. We might plateau, but that's short lived. We need to prepare for an exponential decrease in oil production. If history is any clue, it will take a while for that to happen and that's the problem. We should have prepared when we had cheap oil, then it wouldn't be so painful. With an ever slower economy, equity prices will decay down to reality, people will lose trillions of dollars in equity. Pensions will go broke, tax revenues will fall to historic lows and the current taste of commodity inflation and equity depreciation will become the norm. It don't look pretty. In other words, in a couple of years, oil might be twice or more the price it is now and that $500K house might me sitting on the market for $100K. Hell, I remember houses which sold for $80K in 1980 and now those same houses go for $450K. IMO, real estate will return to it's true value, which is how much someone can pay. The "borrow your way to prosperity" is dead. Back in the sixties, money for mortgages was much, much tighter. Most banks wouldn't go past a 7 year mortgage. That reflected itself in home prices. We are going back to that, IMO.

[joeltrout]

I know for a fact OPEC countries will crumble and I really look forward to it!

Why the hatred??? People should turn their hate into love for all even polar bears.

I am greatful that OPEC allowed me to grow up with security in the supply of cheap energy. I couldn't even imagine growing up with little oil.

joeltrout

[PrairieMule]

While I am not as pessimistic as some, and have a fairly optimistic view that we will somehow cope (lets keep it at optimistic and not naive, people) things inevitably have to change. Have we seen the seeds for this in hybrid cars and solar heating?

A co-worker of mine last week pontificated the salvation of Hybrids. So together we went outside and counted cars in the parking lot. Of the 47 cars we counted, only two of them were hybrids. It sunk in when I pointed out this is technology that has been available in the US market for 10 years.

[PrairieMule]

To expand on just how deep of trouble we are in, I point you to the American psyche. I am reminded of my Dad's 1991 Geo Metro w/manual transmission. He could get 54mpg at 55mph commuting in Houston. How is that compared to a Prius? Last time I checked you could get a 8 year old Metro for about two grand firm. But no, we are more likely to drop twelve times that amout on a Prius or Civic Hybrid. Americans will let the Metros rust before we are caught dead in one.

Are you really ready to see just how deep the rabbit hole goes?

[Pops]

I'll pontificate a speck too.

Oil prices will go to some high point and then recede, not because of some techno-fix but because of the number of people/businesses who are priced out of the market.

Rinse and repeat...

[allenwrench]

I know for a fact OPEC countries will crumble and I really look forward to it!

Why the hatred??? People should turn their hate into love for all even polar bears.
I am greatful that OPEC allowed me to grow up with security in the supply of cheap energy. I couldn't even imagine growing up with little oil.
joeltrout

Yes, gratitude is very important for one to be at peace.

But, lets be honest

It's kind of a love hate relationship.

They don't love us - they love our money.

We don't love them - we love their oil.

[allenwrench]

Peaks and troughs?

That is what is going on with oil. Just look for the long term trend to filter out the highs and lows.

Same with yourown life. Too extreme either way is bad.

I hope you thought about what I told you in your gun thread.

One thing is for sure. In anarchy, collapse and unrest women do poorly. They become sex slaves as I told you.

You like to study history...so study that topic up Jane.

Panic is for those not prepared. We develop self confidence by mastering the skills needed to overcome any situation that arises to threaten our life

Sometimes we jump the gun with survival mania and do it in an unbalanced way.

The way I work my survival preparedness is to do the footwork, prepare, educate and hold it on the back burner unless needed. Until that need, I just live life the best I can.

Without that mindset one cannot be at peace with life, as we are always looking for doom and gloom every day...every hour...every minute. And some survivalists seem to be disappointed if the don't get disaster!

This gives you your base. If things seem to be heading to code orange, step it up a notch. If code red is about to hit, I'm sure you will know it and it is time to implement your plan to the fullest.

So you switch gears from being a short term survivalist to a longer term one.

One important note. Hoarding food is not the same as being able to produce food. So I would suggest anyone interested in survival seriously learn to grow their own as well as be master foragers if your local is conducive for foraging.

[jane]

I know for a fact OPEC countries will crumble and I really look forward to it!

Why the hatred??? People should turn their hate into love for all even polar bears.
I am greatful that OPEC allowed me to grow up with security in the supply of cheap energy. I couldn't even imagine growing up with little oil.
joeltrout

Don't get me wrong joeltrout, I have nothing against the people of the country, but I have a problem with the power the OPEC leaders wield over the global markets. They can be as giving as they want or not. Its human nature when one says "Power corrupts" and I look at it from a purely "human nature is never wrong" standpoint. Besides, I am a believer that oil is a crutch the world has depended on too long. Allenwrench shares my sentiments precisely.

Allenwrench,
I see what you are saying, and I cant agree more. Your views on survival and balance are on point! and one of the few helpful responses I got.
I would like to think that for women, people would have advanced to a point where it wont be bad in anarchy. But lets face it, in anarchy women will once again know their place. I think the natural order of sexes will be restored, somewhat at least. These days so many women think they are "equal" to men but that just isnt the case. Men are built for one thing, women are for another. The confusion comes from many women who think not being "equal" means "less." We are not equal, but we are certainly not less. One thing is for certain, we both need each other.
As far as things getting worse, so I should step up a level, that is the right way to look at it. A great book to read is "On Combat" by Dave Grossman. It isnt so much based on survival with food, but mental survival during combat. What to expect and how your body reacts, this isnt separated so much by the sexes. Dont quote me exactly but he mentions how dogs are always in code "yellow", pretty much always on guard. This is where I believe any woman should be, but in the upcoming times, more so. Getting a gun, therefore may not be such a bad thing, as its more to be used for self defense by women. Of course there are women just as bad and worse then men, but looking at statistics we all know who is typically more violent and offensive.
A lot of those on my gun thread mistook my intent, i wanted to know was it necessary. I already knew the answer, and sadly I have to say it is, ESPECIALLY necessary for women. Too many women are independent these days and raised that way, with the ensuing disorder, if a woman wants to remain independent she will be an easy target.
I am also confident, judging by the responses I got, some with guns who initially use them for "self-defense" are going to turn a cheek and start using it offensively. You cannot convince me that those with guns will all be quietly sitting at home just defending themselves, human nature will take over once again, eventually.

I ride a bike and take public transportation and I just cant stand looking at all the SUV's that pass me. When I see the occasional Prius it shakes me to the core to think maybe they got the car because it was "cool." I am pessimistic with the American people and consumerism, I doubt we will jump until we have too. I know a guy who complains about the gas prices but drives a huge BMW! I mean, really?? Why the heck is he complaining??! I know another who complains, but drives for any little reason, everywhere and owns 2 cars!

[Ludi]

They can be as giving as they want or not.

Why should they be "giving" at all? They aren't a charity. Why shouldn't they try to make as much money as they can with their own resources?

I don't understand this idea that the oil rich countries somehow owe the rest of us in some way. They owe us nothing. We didn't have to become dependent on them.

[Ferretlover]

I don't understand this idea that the oil rich countries somehow owe the rest of us in some way. They owe us nothing. We didn't have to become dependent on them.

I agree 100% !
Pardon me if my xenophobia is showing, but, the resources of ANY country belong to THAT country. If they wish to sell a resource in the global market, and there are buyers, great. If they choose to keep their resources for the use of their citizens, that's okay, too.
The misplaced sense of entitlement by the citizens of one country regarding the resources of another country has grown to such ridiculus proportions, it is a wonder that the entire planet is not engulfed in total warfare.