[titanic]

There is an article here : http://www.321energy.com/editorials/mau ... 42708.html

That basically says America isn't as naive as many think, and Iraq was not a 'strategic plunder'. It implies that once America finishes Iran (and effectively gainly control of the Middle East Oil Fields and the oil distribution points, etc) it will with supreme irony ride the PEAK OIL WAVE to the top of the food chain/pyramid and once again become the world's sole economic/technological/militaristic superpower.

China, and the rest of the world is financing America's ability to wage war in the Middle East and to dominate the world... Once America completes the mission, then the USA would have effective colonized/emperiroize the rest of the world for its own purposes as we slide down the Olduvia Gorge!

All EMPIRES throughout history have fallen for one reason or another.. YES YES I KNOW...

But giving it some more thought. THIS IS DIFFERENT. No other Empire has ever fallen concurrently and parallel to the decline of resources and energy on a global scale! So the rules change, the dynamics are different... Perhaps it is somewhat of a mathematical certainly that the "Top dog" nations, (nations with the most tech/economy/military) will forever remain on top and secure its position as we slide down the global gorge? (after all, at peak oil we are at "peak everything", so its not like any other lesser nation will be able to "get ahead" if you know what I mean..)

The world situation can be defined by the theme of "cannibalism"
Big nations have to "eat" smaller nations to stay alive.. Big Corporations have to "eat" smaller corporations. So it is very hard to imagine how those on top during the permanent crash will ever lose their "top position", on the contrary if anything they will become more dominant and superpower!

Since I live in the USA, if this is true, from a personal standpoint I am happy...

But will the rest of the world let America do this to them? But do they really have a choice? Even if they collectively fought back do you think it would work? When the globe slides down the gorge remember a lot of rules change... History is not a good indicator anymore, since 2006 it has failed us... We are in new paradigm...

Let me know what you think please!

[seahorse2]

In concept its possible for the US to remain on top, however, it would require a lot of changes for this reason: this assumes the Chinese and Arabs will continue to finance our military spending by buying our bonds. It assumes the ME will not unpeg their currencies from the dollar thus, tanking the dollar. For the US to maintain its current status, it needs to be able to continue to run massive trade and budget deficits, which I don't think it possible, at least not in a capitalist system. If the US had a different system, something other than its capitalist system where it could ignore and repudiate all it owes to foreigners and its own citizens (entitlement programs), then yes, it maybe able to continue for a long time. But, we are not Spartans, even though most Americans think they are.

[titanic]

In concept its possible for the US to remain on top, however, it would require a lot of changes for this reason: this assumes the Chinese and Arabs will continue to finance our military spending by buying our bonds. It assumes the ME will not unpeg their currencies from the dollar thus, tanking the dollar. For the US to maintain its current status, it needs to be able to continue to run massive trade and budget deficits, which I don't think it possible, at least not in a capitalist system. If the US had a different system, something other than its capitalist system where it could ignore and repudiate all it owes to foreigners and its own citizens (entitlement programs), then yes, it maybe able to continue for a long time. But, we are not Spartans, even though most Americans think they are.

Once America takes PHYSICAL control of the oil, the rest of the world will be more than happy to continue financing the US at whatever the cost and the dollar will be gold..

The Middle East cannot unpeg because the Middle East does not own the Middle East. THE US owns the Middle East.

The trend is the rich get richer (and fewer in numbers) and the poor get poorer (and more in numbers)

So all the nations will sacrifice themselves so that America can continue to enjoy the NONNEGOTAIBALE AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE...

Otherwise they get their oil cut off, and back to the stone age they go?

At least this is what the PNAC neocons believe will play out...

[Ferretlover]

If the US attacks Iran, the rest of the world will discuss it for a brief time, then start to move into groups with similar agendas. These groups will ally themselves with Russia, China or the Middle East and actively gang up on the US.
I suspect this scenario has been anticipated, hence the North American Union.
Of course, I could be wrong-but, I don't think so!

[Milret2]

Let's see. America has done so very well taking over Iraq and stabilizing the Iraqi oil production and transport issues there. So far we have only spent 4000+ American lives, who knows how many Iraqi lives, bankrupted our country with over (so far) over half a trillion dollars in war costs growing currently at over $300 million per day, we have broken our carefully put together volunteer armed service (at least the boots on the ground part and a LOT of the equipment they prosecute war with), sold our country to the Chinese to finance the war, and enjoyed the heck out of being civilians in this country while ignoring returning vets who are dead, maimed, shell shocked, and terribly tired. Yep .. we are ready to take over the world and run it really well. Thank god we still have an intercontinental ballistic missile system ready to take out any country that disagrees with us.

[BigTex]

Pure fantasy.

The U.S. doesn't win wars of attrition, and ANY ME occupation will turn into exactly that (see Iraq).

Modern militaries are quite easy to harrass when parked in stationary positions in hostile territory.

This harrassment is both demoralizing and VERY expensive to counter.

Please tell me this is some sort of exercise in counterintuitive strategic thinking, and not a serious idea.

[titanic]

Let's see. America has done so very well taking over Iraq and stabilizing the Iraqi oil production and transport issues there. So far we have only spent 4000+ American lives, who knows how many Iraqi lives, bankrupted our country with over (so far) over half a trillion dollars in war costs growing currently at over $300 million per day, we have broken our carefully put together volunteer armed service (at least the boots on the ground part and a LOT of the equipment they prosecute war with), sold our country to the Chinese to finance the war, and enjoyed the heck out of being civilians in this country while ignoring returning vets who are dead, maimed, shell shocked, and terribly tired. Yep .. we are ready to take over the world and run it really well. Thank god we still have an intercontinental ballistic missile system ready to take out any country that disagrees with us.

You are still thinking in "conventional" terms.

4000+ lives mean nothing in the grand scheme of things. Any country would gladly sacrifice 4000+ lives a week if it meant it could stay on top.. Plus it will help with the population problem..

And why did you even mention "Iraqi lives"? Do you think the US Gov honestly gives a rats ass about Iraqi citizens??

Okay so that leaves the fact that :

America never intended to pay back the debt owed to China. So its all papers and numbers as far as I'm concerned because once/if the US controls the world's oil (by force or otherwise) then the dollar will skyrocket on par with the crude and as we here all know about Peak Oil, the dollar will be more coveted than Gold...

So the debt can be "easily paid off", matter of speaking...

And yes when push comes to shove there is always M.A.D. but of course the US is hoping to secure technologies that will give it the unilateral advantage when it comes to these things..

[seahorse2]

I disagree with this:

Once America takes PHYSICAL control of the oil, the rest of the world will be more than happy to continue financing the US at whatever the cost and the dollar will be gold..

This assumes the US can take physical control and also assumes the other countries will continue financing the US. Let's start with the second, already the dollar is losing value bc people are starting to invest elsewhere. I don't see this trend stopping anytime soon. Further, the Chinese for example only finance us as long as its in their economic, strategic interest to do so. As long as we have consumers buying all their stuff, its a win for them to buy dollars. However, this trend is already slowing down and will continue to worsen as the US consumer becomes tapped out. If the US consumer is tapped out and can't buy Chinese stuff, then, there's no reason for the Chinese to continue buying dollars.

Further, if resources are depleting or if demand is simply struggling to keep up with supply, then the US and China may start butting heads over who gets the oil available (either militarily or simple economics). Thus, the Chinese may not continue to finance US budgets if they ever believe they need to outbid the US or get the US military out of the ME and Africa in order to secure the oil themselves. Easiest way to do this is for them to quit financing the US military machine, meaning, quit buying US treasuries.

[titanic]

Pure fantasy.

The U.S. doesn't win wars of attrition, and ANY ME occupation will turn into exactly that (see Iraq).

Modern militaries are quite easy to harrass when parked in stationary positions in hostile territory.

This harrassment is both demoralizing and VERY expensive to counter.

Please tell me this is some sort of exercise in counterintuitive strategic thinking, and not a serious idea.

90% of the "reconstruction" going on in Iraq is of large ass solid concrete bomb proof PERMANENT military bases, forts, installations, etc... These will be capable of housing tens of thousands of troops for decades upon decades...

So everyone's "a camel with a pack of C4 can bring it down" thinking is IMHO too over simplified...


And lets not kid ourselves, despite everything, the US still has the single most powerful and sophisticated military might in the world, one that will not be challenged anytime soon, if ever, (since we are slide down the gorge)

[eXpat]

Wishful thinking, the Suez Crisis did happen, something similar can happen again, if the British Sterling was dumped then, the dollar (already in decline) can be dumped now.

[BigTex]

Pure fantasy.

The U.S. doesn't win wars of attrition, and ANY ME occupation will turn into exactly that (see Iraq).

Modern militaries are quite easy to harrass when parked in stationary positions in hostile territory.

This harrassment is both demoralizing and VERY expensive to counter.

Please tell me this is some sort of exercise in counterintuitive strategic thinking, and not a serious idea.

90% of the "reconstruction" going on in Iraq is of large ass solid concrete bomb proof PERMANENT military bases, forts, installations, etc... These will be capable of housing tens of thousands of troops for decades upon decades...

So everyone's "a camel with a pack of C4 can bring it down" thinking is IMHO too over simplified...

And lets not kid ourselves, despite everything, the US still has the single most powerful and sophisticated military might in the world, one that will not be challenged anytime soon, if ever, (since we are slide down the gorge)

The Iraq effort will not fail because of losses on the battlefield. It will fail because of its cost back home in dollars and lives and changes in political currents (see Vietnam--did anyone else notice that Paul Wolfowitz got the same job that Robert McNamara did when each of their wars began to fail?).

Print this thread out and put it on the shelf. In five years, if you pick it up and read it, you might reconsider your thinking.

But if this sort of world view makes you feel better today, by all means enjoy it as long as you can maintain the illusion.

[Chuckmak]

[titanic]

Oh the IRONY of your post good sir!

[Twilight]

Nice map.

How much will oil cost?

[errorist]

Oil will be priceless then. Bartered for some HE ammunition and napalm. On the other side - losing your job will not be an issue and new workplaces created will include extreme tourism in uniforms.

Nice map.

How much will oil cost?

[Munqi]

I think its possible that the US will come on top on this one. I find it hard to believe that this is the best that the US can do.


The next 5 years are going to be very interesting though.

[Kaj]

Titanic, I cautiously agree that you might be right. This is something I have feared too.

The Iraq war was about getting strategic leverage (diplomatic) over Europe and China.

It clear that the poorer countries will suffer first when TSHTF. The rich and mighty nations (overwhelmingly America) will be the last to suffer. Even with America declining, it could be more ahead than ever in 10 years (relatively speaking).

[highlander]

1.5 billion chinese and 1 billion indians say you are quite wrong. A couple hundred russions thrown in for good measure. Any of these groups can end it with one nuke. MAD is, and has always been a bunch of crap. TPTB in this country want to keep up in a perpetual state of fear. Russia has survived centuries of war on their soil. We barely escaped our own civil war. If it came here, our congress would roll over so fast it would be over before the ink was dry. There is a group of immensely wealthy people that don't care a whit about "country" We will see the result of that very soon.