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Peak Oil: the Good ...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby Waterthrush » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 08:59:44

Yes, there's more Bad and Ugly than good, but I'm not discounting "the good" of Peak Oil.

My #1 good so far is the Silence of the Air Conditioners. I live in a townhome development and I use my small deck a lot. EVERY year so far, the ACs have fired up starting in May. Particularly that of one of my next-door neighbors, who seemed to keep hers going day and night, even if the temp outside was 65F. Now, I know it gets up to 100 F around here - it may be getting near that high today - and I do want those people who "need" the AC to have it, particularly the elderly and the infirm.

But, a little more hardiness in those of us who are healthy wouldn't hurt! Sure, since this heat wave will continue for 4 days, I may turn it on in the afternoon today or tomorrow. But maybe not - right now I'm following "passive cooling" guidelines, opening up the house early this morning and then closing it down and drawing shades as the sun gets serious.

And the quiet! The quiet is WONDERFUL. I had breakfast on my deck this morning without thunderous air conditioners blasting on either side. The temperature was a comfortable 75F. I listened to rustling leaves and birds singing. This to me is a very real benefit of peak oil. I look forward to more of it.

#2. Sane Highway Speeds I've noticed that trucks are slowing down to 65 mph or below, and many cars are following suit. Driving is becoming distinctly less stressful, and the stress will continue to decrease as drivers adjust their expectations about arrival times and stop rewarding themselves for beating the clock. "Easy Driver" - that's the motto of the future. Again, a real, though immeasurable, benefit.

How about contributing your positives from Peak Oil so far? I have several more. Sure, I know the negatives - they've been explored here in great detail - but how about the pluses, and not those in the future, but the ones we are experiencing so far?
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby hope_full » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 09:30:30

I see some big positives.

1) America becoming more like Europe and developing a real mass-transit system, and not just a dozen empty buses making the obligatory loop around the city.

2) The suburbs and all their ugly McMansions become a thing of the past. Glory be and Hallelujah! It won't take long for the earth to swallow up those plastic monstrosities. The PVC siding can be recycled and the rest of the house will collapse into a pile of substandard building materials and genetically engineered fast-growth warped pine 2x4s and "engineered lumber" which is chip board (OSB) and 2x3s. Ick. Scavengars will pick up the pieces and burn them for firewood. I can't think of a better ending for McMansions, which are actually designed for a LIFE SPAN of 50 years anyway. They were a passing fancy, never intended to endure.

3) Mom and Pop businesses return to the city.

4) Old houses become popular again, as people start to appreciate their ability to remain naturally cool in the hot summers.

5) People start talking to their neighbors. Community returns.

6) Stress levels drop five billion points as people stop commuting for two hours each day and simply "ride the rails" to their jobs.

7) We return to the kind of living we were intended to have, instead of this high-pace, high-stress, frenetic, frantic, mile-a-minute all the time nuttyness and busy-ness.

Eight) God willing, all televisions will be collected and destroyed, and no one will have to hear about American Idol ever again.

Nine) And the very best, perhaps Americans will again become the rugged individualists we were all intended to be.

Just call me hope-full. :)
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby Waterthrush » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 10:13:49

Hope full, those things may very well happen in the future. But, are you experiencing anything from Peak Oil that you would consider a positive right now?
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby JimG » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 10:22:51

Hope Full, you are so good. I agree with practically the entire list. Except for the part about American Idol. : )

The stressed out/ franticness is a weird byproduct of just trying to get through - in my mind- a typical day with three small kids. Insanity!

Those Mc Mansions in Seattle with last 30-40 years with all the rain / moisture we get. Yee Haw! Papa needs some firewood when they start to disintegrate. Can't wait actually.
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby kokoda » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 10:22:59

1.) People might actually start walking again.

2.) Food prices may force people to abandon fast foods and TV dinners and start eating properly.

3.) It may be possible to actually take a deep breath without choking on car fumes.

4.) The death of the SUV
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 10:28:24

kokoda wrote:4.) The death of the SUV

Whats the deal with SUV's for some people? Mine sits in the driveway with 33.5 mpg showing on the fuel meter computer, better for around town mileage than any other vehicle I've ever owned including a Suzuki Esteem and a chevy Metro.

What in the WORLD makes better mileage, better winter handling ( AWD ), more room, more comfort and more power a BAD thing?
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 10:34:44

Waterthrush wrote:Yes, there's more Bad and Ugly than good, but I'm not discounting "the good" of Peak Oil.

My #1 good so far is the Silence of the Air Conditioners. I live in a townhome development and I use my small deck a lot. EVERY year so far, the ACs have fired up starting in May. Particularly that of one of my next-door neighbors, who seemed to keep hers going day and night, even if the temp outside was 65F. Now, I know it gets up to 100 F around here - it may be getting near that high today - and I do want those people who "need" the AC to have it, particularly the elderly and the infirm.

But, a little more hardiness in those of us who are healthy wouldn't hurt! Sure, since this heat wave will continue for 4 days, I may turn it on in the afternoon today or tomorrow. But maybe not - right now I'm following "passive cooling" guidelines, opening up the house early this morning and then closing it down and drawing shades as the sun gets serious.

And the quiet! The quiet is WONDERFUL. I had breakfast on my deck this morning without thunderous air conditioners blasting on either side. The temperature was a comfortable 75F. I listened to rustling leaves and birds singing. This to me is a very real benefit of peak oil. I look forward to more of it.

#2. Sane Highway Speeds I've noticed that trucks are slowing down to 65 mph or below, and many cars are following suit. Driving is becoming distinctly less stressful, and the stress will continue to decrease as drivers adjust their expectations about arrival times and stop rewarding themselves for beating the clock. "Easy Driver" - that's the motto of the future. Again, a real, though immeasurable, benefit.

How about contributing your positives from Peak Oil so far? I have several more. Sure, I know the negatives - they've been explored here in great detail - but how about the pluses, and not those in the future, but the ones we are experiencing so far?


Positives? NONE.
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby emailking » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 10:41:44

Waterthrush wrote: Now, I know it gets up to 100 F around here - it may be getting near that high today - and I do want those people who "need" the AC to have it, particularly the elderly and the infirm.
But, a little more hardiness in those of us who are healthy wouldn't hurt!

So, when it's 100 degrees out, you don't want the average Joe using AC? I wouldn't agree with that. In today's homes and apartments that's fairly miserable unless you sit in the bathtub.
Not trying to imply this ability will always exist, but while it's here, might as well use it.
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby Waterthrush » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 10:55:12

emailking wrote:So, when it's 100 degrees out, you don't want the average Joe using AC? I wouldn't agree with that. In today's homes and apartments that's fairly miserable unless you sit in the bathtub.
Not trying to imply this ability will always exist, but while it's here, might as well use it.

emailking, no, I'm flexible about the temp for AC. Shade makes a difference, heat tolerance makes a difference - I understand because I'm cold intolerant, and have to force myself to keep the temp at 72 (only about 4 hours/day, when I need it) even with turtlenecks and sweatshirts. If I had to name a temperature, it would be at about 90F - and AC would be set to at least 80. But, as I said, circumstances differ.

I'm just saying that I'm enjoying that the automatic starting of air conditioners when the temp reaches 75F is going away.
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby Cashmere » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 11:01:13

VM - agreed. None.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 11:15:43

KillTheHumans wrote:
kokoda wrote:4.) The death of the SUV

Whats the deal with SUV's for some people? Mine sits in the driveway with 33.5 mpg showing on the fuel meter computer, better for around town mileage than any other vehicle I've ever owned including a Suzuki Esteem and a chevy Metro.
What in the WORLD makes better mileage, better winter handling ( AWD ), more room, more comfort and more power a BAD thing?

They are slow as crap? :razz:
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby Farknight » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 11:31:06

There is too much pessimism I believe in a "let's find the good in the bad thread."
I see a lot of positives and these were reinforced by an in depth interview with T. Boone Pickens on Cleanskies TV this morning:
1. A re-localization of food sourcing and upswelling support for local farmers' markets and CSAs (Community Support Agriculture). I work for a pretty progressive town of 7000 about 50 miles out from DC and we have an extremely successful market that is growing and busting at the seams. The food is of MUCH better quality than the stuff hauled cross continent. Also, the CSA program at our local farm is thriving and was sold out. I just picked up my share yesterday full of fresh strawberries, asparagus, kale and onion. I add to that my own radishes and soon tomatoes and beans.

2. Hopefully, the loss of the great whale vehicles that truly terrify me on the road (suburbans, hummers, Tahoes and their ilk); all typically driven by a diminutive soccer mom who looks frazzled driving the boat between practices, games and parties.

3. The end of suburban sprawl out into prime agricultural land. We have tried for years in my county to control sprawl and McMansions but the PO situation is doing what weak politicians could not. I used to shudder as prime, top food-producing land was churned up for driveways, basements, play courts and pools.

4. Perhaps a lessening of the US epidemic of obesity. Food will be expensive in the future and much of it of higher local quality. Add to that the fiscal need to walk or bike places and we may have a fitness craze without knowing realizing it. This may also lessen some of the burden on the teetering healthcare system, especially in the area of diabetes.

5. Serious movement into all forms of alternative energies such as wind and solar with new technologies, primarily in power storage and distribution coming online. T. Boone Pickens is building a massive 400,000 acre wind farm in Sweetwater Texas and he according to his predictions, natural gas will become a "bridge" fuel as oil declines. If you have been reading the Oil Drum and doing indepth research into Mcf flows for North American NG development from all sources including shales and coal seams we have tremendous upside potential. Will it peak? Of course, like any fossil fuel it is finite. But, maybe it will buy us the time needed for a transition that is not the MAD MAX meltdown the uber doomers predict with more dread each day. If you need funds for your preparations I'd seriously examine smaller NG players as they are making money hand of foot right now.

6. And finally, the need for the US to wake-up and realize that 4% of the global population cannot suck-up 25% of the oil to fuel an unsustainable lifestyle. At $135 a barrel we are transferring away (or literally burning through) 700 billion dollars annually. This dwarfs the cost of the Iraq War. This is unsustainable and market forces are showing us the hard facts. Even the most materialistic among us will have to either go broke and live on the streets or adapt and live a simpler, saner life. Work close to home, drive a smaller and efficient vehicle, grow some of their own food and reduce the grand expectations of jaunts to Europe or playing in all-inclusive resorts.

Bottom line: will PO be a bitch? Of course, change always is. There will be dramatic problems but I believe in resiliency of a species that has always muddled through in the end.
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 11:32:31

KillTheHumans wrote:What in the WORLD makes better mileage, better winter handling ( AWD ), more room, more comfort and more power a BAD thing?
Oh, about $10 grand or so less for something with roughly the same room, mileage, and power. ;)
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 11:55:38

Waterthrush wrote:My #1 good so far is the Silence of the Air Conditioners.

How does a shortage of liquid fuels immediately equate to people turning off their air conditioners?
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 12:28:50

pstarr wrote:KTH is a contrarian and he is here to ruin your fun, make you doubt your commonsense and obvious truths, and finally bring you down as low as he is.

I asked a question and made a statement of fact. Nothing more. Whats the matter Peter, can't you READ?
pstarr wrote:If you are truly ingenious and dogged, you too can have KTH banned. But that requires a Zen-Like Patience (ZLP) and great skill. Try it. It can be fun :)

I keep forgetting, you are the guy who claimed it would happen some time ago. Prognostication abilities going a little awry there Peter?
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby Waterthrush » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 12:31:15

mos6507 wrote:How does a shortage of liquid fuels immediately equate to people turning off their air conditioners?

mos6507 I *think* folks are trying to save some cash by reducing their electricity bill so they can afford gas.
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby MarkJ » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 12:35:28

We see more people than ever in the Northeast using window unit air conditioners since they've become so cheap at the Super Centers and Big Box stores. I'm surprised at the growth of Central A/C retrofits in the Northeast as well.

The use of less expensive forced air systems (as opposed to hydronic systems) with A/C sharing common ductwork in system retrofits and new construction has caused substantial growth in the Northeast A/C market. In the past, A/C was a luxury or optional item, but now it has become standard even for some low end housing. If a fairly modern home doesn't have Central A/C many buyers will freak out.

Many will keep their SUVs since they're paid for, have lower resale value and/or they own other more economical vehicles. The full sized luxury SUV will be a niche market, but many people are replacing SUVs with crossovers or mid sized vehicles.

One of the positive aspects of high fuel prices I'm hoping for is less traffic on the lakes. I avoid many lakes, areas of lakes and boat launches because of high traffic.
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 12:38:53

Waterthrush wrote:
mos6507 wrote:How does a shortage of liquid fuels immediately equate to people turning off their air conditioners?

mos6507 I *think* folks are trying to save some cash by reducing their electricity bill so they can afford gas.
I thought it was more about "going green".
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Re: Peak Oil: the Good ...

Unread postby the48thronin » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 15:33:19

Ride the rails....HMMm link

includes the following tid bit: Over capacity
Amtrak, which shares the rails with freight trains, is also feeling the pinch. Its long-distance trains were on time just 42 percent of the time last year, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's inspector general.
The problem on the shared tracks has worsened in recent years as freight traffic has soared. Passenger trains move much faster than most freights, and in many areas there is only a single track, forcing trains to pull over on side tracks and wait while trains coming in the other direction pass.

A solution won't come cheap.
The chamber says expanding capacity on the more than 150-year-old rail system would cost $148 billion over 30 years. Private companies would have to pay most of it, with federal and state tax dollars covering much of the rest.

Read that last sentence again please...... LOL
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