[joelcolorado]

I thot that at $3 the economy would crumble under the strain and maybe it did and just catching up with us now. Most of the economic stimulus money went to gas and groceries which was NOT the plan.

And credit is at an all time high and increasing fast. I believe ppl have given up and charge what they want and just done care, honestly. But you see more and more ppl getting $20 or $10 worth of gas instead of filling up, too. So there is a point where we break.
$4 is now here and I think there will be huge ramifications now. Restaurants are closing due to low traffic count and this will snowball now. Ppl will cut back more and more and more until the malls stand empty of all the repeat stores that are there now.

I have never seen so many diff stores for things we DO NOT NEED> Those will go first. Home depot already suffering due to ppl not doing home improvement projects.

Taxes going up, county state and fed plus schools, use taxes etc.
Airlines charging for water and pepsi now and each bag taken. we are in the midst of collapse and DONT KNOW IT> funny as hell.
I finally talked to my son enough he is not buying a new SUV but looking at the smallest car made for now.

What do you think the PRICE is where we go belly up an you REALLY notice some huge changes?

[Cashmere]

Unrest at 5.
Protests at 6.
Riots at 8-10.

After that it won't matter much.

[Heineken]

I am on record as stating that "all hell would break loose when gasoline got to $4," by which I meant fundamental disturbances in the Force. This appears to have begun to happen.

As important as the price itself is the rate of change. A sudden increase (over the course of, say, a few days or weeks) to $5 or $6 could well spawn panic and chaos.

It's hard to say where the trigger point lies, but it's out there waiting.

The gas price will not rise in a straight line; pullbacks are certain. We could have a period of normalization, but any improvements will be only temporary.

[Don35]

It's hard to say where the trigger point lies, but it's out there waiting.

The gas price will not rise in a straight line; pullbacks are certain. We could have a period of normalization, but any improvements will be only temporary.

Yes! I don't think anyone really knows where the trigger point is. Someone here at PO.com said, Prices will be like a drunk walking home. Fall down, get back up, stumble along and fall down again. We'll see a price pull back and everyone will sigh and think "Oh, it was only temporary". Habits of consumption will change slowly, unfortunately.

[Byron100]

In the past, I've said that $7 gas in the USA will be the breaking point, and I still stick by that today. We'll have major strains at $5 and $6, but at $7, I do think we're talking full-blown depression, with massive retail store and restaurant closings, huge rises in unemployment and the overloading of public transit systems in the big cities as people desperately seek other modes of transportation.

When gas hits $7 a gallon, I expect the airlines to do a collective BK...and of course, the gov't will attempt to keep them alive...but that won't last too long. Same thing with "gas credits" and other emergency measures...these won't help much either.

Let the riots begin!

[Heineken]

It's a really, really interesting question, isn't it?

The question, all by itself, unmasks our spectacular, baby-like dependency over a commodity that's dwindling in supply and which we have little control over.

As I said before, though, one can't look only at the price. You have to combine the price with the rate of change.

[vision-master]

Price will not cause panic and chaos, chronic fuel shortages will.

[Bman4k1]

Unrest at 5.
Protests at 6.
Riots at 8-10.

After that it won't matter much.

Agree

[vision-master]

Unrest at 5.
Protests at 6.
Riots at 8-10.

After that it won't matter much.

Agree

No, price won't matter, cause you figure at least "I can buy my fuel", it's when the pumps run dry - FOOKEN PANIC!

[joelcolorado]

So far, good comments. Thanks. IS there anyone who understands economics enough to really put a number to this?

[jlw61]

So far, good comments. Thanks. IS there anyone who understands economics enough to really put a number to this?

I don't think you can put a number to this and the reason why is that you will see localized panic or rioting first. Hear in central VA, things are "normal" for the most part and you have to look sharp to catch any fraying at the edges. There's a few more houses up for sale than normal with no talk about foreclosures, the grocerystores are well stocked, no store closings outside of the normal one or two here and there, and there are no layoffs to talk about and unemployment is still below the national average. $4+ gasoline prices are just not causing the amount of grumbling I thought it would.

However, in other parts of the country, I hear it's quite the opposite and getting worse. So I think that the real question is: Where will the first signs of widespread panic occur and why? My bet is that the remaining manufacturing centers will see the first cracks (cars and durable goods) as sales slump further.

The real tipping point, however, will be in any high population area that sees extended blackouts during the summer, shortages of heating fuel (gas or oil) this winter, or food shortages at any time. While I think gasoline is related to TSHTF, it will not be the factor that tips the scales, it will be shortages of electricity, heating fuel, or food.

[Cashmere]

So far, good comments. Thanks. IS there anyone who understands economics enough to really put a number to this?

What? You want Benjamin Shalom Bernanke's opinion?



VM - You're right, of course, that when there is no gas there will be panic/riots. But obviously there is some point at which a large enough % of the population is priced out of the market where it will function just like "out of gas". For example, the average schmuck who gets 25mpg and has to commute 25 miles to work each day needs to spend 20 bucks a day to get to work. If he's working for 8 bucks an hour, he's spending 3 out of 8 hours working for gas. That's riot time.

[jlw61]

Unrest at 5.
Protests at 6.
Riots at 8-10.

After that it won't matter much.

Agree

No, price won't matter, cause you figure at least "I can buy my fuel", it's when the pumps run dry - FOOKEN PANIC!

I must ammend my answer above to include widespread gasoline shortages on a regular basis or over a 4+ day period of time. A station running dry here and there will only raise eyebrows.

Good call on that.

[Farknight]

No, price won't matter, cause you figure at least "I can buy my fuel", it's when the pumps run dry - FOOKEN PANIC!

IMHO fuel will remain available but simply price more and more folks out of driving. Not unlike the fact one CAN buy caviar but for the average Joe to do so would be fiscal insanity.

Here in NW Virginia (blighted Loudoun County) things remain status quo for sure. Hummers still on the road followed by Tahoes and Suburbans. Gas stands at 4.07 a gallon to as high a 4.20 a gallon. People still fill the brutes they are driving and use the plastic. I watch'em swipe away.

There is indeed a tipping point on a gradual scale of reduction and Cashmere's paradigm levels look reasonable enough to me. The stations always have gas but over time fewer and fewer folks will be able to filler up.

I am looking into 100 mpg scooters for my 5 mile commute up a half dirt half paved rural road to town.

[wisconsin_cur]

No, price won't matter, cause you figure at least "I can buy my fuel", it's when the pumps run dry - FOOKEN PANIC!

IMHO fuel will remain available but simply price more and more folks out of driving. Not unlike the fact one CAN buy caviar but for the average Joe to do so would be fiscal insanity.

Here in NW Virginia (blighted Loudoun County) things remain status quo for sure. Hummers still on the road followed by Tahoes and Suburbans. Gas stands at 4.07 a gallon to as high a 4.20 a gallon. People still fill the brutes they are driving and use the plastic. I watch'em swipe away.

There is indeed a tipping point on a gradual scale of reduction and Cashmere's paradigm levels look reasonable enough to me. The stations always have gas but over time fewer and fewer folks will be able to filler up.

I am looking into 100 mpg scooters for my 5 mile commute up a half dirt half paved rural road to town.

Of course the answer is both shortages and price. Gasoline will reach a certain price but not in the neighborhoods where no one can pay that price and the commodity cannot be protected.

To take a Twin Cities example. Gasoline will still be available in Minnetonka (a rich Western Suburb) long after it is no longer available on Cedar Ave near Riverside. The people on Cedar Ave will be... agitated to say the least and the people of Minnetonka will be rightly concerned about groups of individuals who look like they don't belong in Minnetonka.

I won't be watching for a certain price, I will be waiting for reports of people in the inner city robbing the gas station to fill up their tank, not rob the register. I will be waiting for the gas station on Riverside and I-94 to close. I will be waiting to hear of the people of Minnetonka setting up their own minutemen group.

For the record, Minnetonka would be nearly impossible to defend against a minimally organized force... and extremely difficult to defend from even the most unorganized of mobs.

Google Maps

Hopefully, I will not still need my job that causes me to drive into Minneapolis at night when that starts to happen.

[BigTex]

I'm with VM and others--as long as fuel is available at any price, things are unlikely to get ugly.

It's when it's not available that people are going to start acting crazy.

They're doing $10 a gallon fuel in Britain and the world still turns (I think it does, anyway).

We haven't even started seriously down the whole carpooling thing yet. That's next, and that will provide a lot of relief to some people with long commutes.

Maybe $25 a gallon would start to create some friction.

I think the frog in the boiling water analogy is appropriate here--people will adjust to higher prices without freaking out so long as it is reasonably gradual and fuel is available for SOME price.

The 1970s only got ugly because of price control induced shortages.

To date, I don't think anyone could have predicted how little social unrest would be caused by $4.00 a gallon gas and nearly $5.00 a gallon diesel.

[cube]

...
They're doing $10 a gallon fuel in Britain and the world still turns (I think it does, anyway).
...

more like $8 / gallon but still....

How much has the price of crude oil risen?
That depends which currency you use.
US dollars ---> HUGE
Euro and British pounds --> a little

$10 gasoline in USA == financial Armageddon

[grampybone]

$7.00 a gallon and all hell breaks loose.

[MD]

Price has already caused panic and chaos. In the US, it's mostly found on an individual basis, as households deal with empty checkbooks.

Collective panic and chaos will emerge here and there as price continues to rise, i.e. trucker's strikes, food riots, etc.

Economic activities that require high energy input but deliver little or no productive value will be under great pressure. Many of these activities will cease.

Those on this board that continue to seek the magic number that will "trigger the collapse" really need to stop looking.

It doesn't work that way.

Some people and regions and economic subsets will prosper through this change.

Many others will suffer.

It's really not hard to see where the prosperity will come from. Move yourself into those economies, and the price of gas won't matter . . . much.

Once you are well situated, go about your business.

I suppose a comet might land on your head anyway, but there's really no point in planning for that, is there?

[wisconsin_cur]

I suppose a comet might land on your head anyway, but there's really no point in planning for that, is there?

You go ahead and let yourself be taken out by the rogue comet...

I'm planning for everything.