[Johny_Bloggsy]

I have a different view. I believe that the oil reserves will last for a very long time. We will have a peak alright, but it will be on the demand side, not the supply side.
And it's all thanks to the new technologies and to the current high price of oil. If oil stays expensive it ill be a very good thing!
It accelerates R&D, production and selling of the electric car. In a few years the world will start to cut down a lot on its oil consumption.
Of course we will have to endure some pain until then, but I believe it will be worth it.
The bad news is that energy consumption will shift to other resources, such as coal, nuclear, etc... and that does not ensure mankind survival in the long run.

[thuja]

Who wants to feed him the red pill?

[like_the_dinosaurs]

Believe in what ever you want too. I believe that someone couldn't be that stupid and post something like that, oh crap somebody did.

At least die off will raise the average IQ by a few points.

[eXpat]

I have a different view. I believe that the oil reserves will last for a very long time. We will have a peak alright, but it will be on the demand side, not the supply side.

Analysis, proof, facts? something that substantiates that point of view???

[Cashmere]

We need a DSE bin for these posts.

[SILENTTODD]

Who wants to feed him the red pill?

Not me. I've been called impolite for doing such things!

[Micki]

J-bloggsy, you also believed oil prices were coming right off and were going to continue way down. So far your predictions have a poor track record.

[Johny_Bloggsy]

Thank you all flamers and "smartguys".
I see there is no room for debate here. You've made up your mind and are totally unwilling to accept a different opinion.
Everyone is entitled to his/her beliefs.
If you like to believe that the world is coming to and end soon, that we'll go back to riding horses and camels, etc... that's absolutely fine.

[Johny_Bloggsy]

J-bloggsy, you also believed oil prices were coming right off and were going to continue way down. So far your predictions have a poor track record.

Micki, have you read the Fin Review lately?

[Johny_Bloggsy]

I have a different view. I believe that the oil reserves will last for a very long time. We will have a peak alright, but it will be on the demand side, not the supply side.

Analysis, proof, facts? something that substantiates that point of view???

You mean, something like this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/busin ... nted=print

[Jack]

You mean, something like this?

An electric car in 2010? That's going to solve the problem?

Have you read Simmons text, Twilight in the Desert? If not, I suggest you obtain a copy and read it.

[alokin]

We're maybe a bit too rude. But first of al. look in Wikipedia and then youtube there are really good introductions on the topic.
Read this first this stuff.
Maybe members here are a bit tired f explaining the fundamentals over and over again, especially if they are long term members.

Recently there are a lot of new members and many of them come with very few information about fundamentals and a often opposed to environmental concerned people.

[wisconsin_cur]

I have a different view. I believe that the oil reserves will last for a very long time. We will have a peak alright, but it will be on the demand side, not the supply side.

Analysis, proof, facts? something that substantiates that point of view???

You mean, something like this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/busin ... nted=print

First Bloggsy, welcome to peakoil.com. I hope you will look around and spend some time.

I would like to encourage everyone to play nice and develop a civil discussion of the issue. Just because some of us (myself included) is feeling a little pessemistic the last few months is no reason to take it out on Bloggsy.

Bloggsy, there is a temptation to think that we are a bunch of freaks who want the world to end (and there are some of those here ) but I would ask that you give us the benefit of the doubt to begin with. Read some of the threads as various options have been explored. And then do the math for yourself concerning each of the other possibilities. Some of us think that the world is going to end because we have done the math. You can question our math, maybe we will learn something from one another but please do not discount us before spending some time interacting.

concerning the electric car I would just point to one recent post from another thread.

Shockingly High Electricity Prices Coming Soon

Americans may pay a lot more for electricity this summer, federal energy officials and the spot power market indicate. Worst hit could be the Northeast, especially the area from Boston to New York City, where forward prices from the InterContinental Exchange for July-August 2008 have been running up to 75% and higher over year-ago levels.

While higher forward prices aren’t a guarantee of higher actual prices this summer, “Wholesale electric prices are likely to be considerably higher than they were a year ago,” America’s Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) warned last month. FERC said this year’s higher price for natural gas, the most frequently used fuel for peak power generation, is the main reason why. On Monday Raymond James & Associates, the investment banking firm, raised its forecast for summer natural gas prices by 20%, citing colder weather, low imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and ongoing infrastructure repairs as reasons why it anticipates a 200 billion cubic foot (Bcf) year-over-year storage deficit by July.

FERC said that even if natural gas prices don’t keep rising, power prices likely will still go up because the U.S. has added little baseload capacity over the last few years. “As a result,” FERC said in its summer reliability report, “the electric system must use generators that cost progressively more to run.”

Newspapers including the Wall Street Journal last week reported on rising power prices in Texas, but sharply higher prices appear to await Americans from coast to coast. In parts of southern California, for instance, forward prices have been running roughly 75% higher than a year ago, while parts of the Midwest have been seeing roughly 50% increases.

article link

It appears that heating, electric, and gasoline prices will be increasing at least 50%-75% per year from now on. This is a big deal.

Link

The issue is one of scale. How many electric vehicles will we build? Where will the additional watts come from? How much coal will we have to burn to run 500k electric cars? Let alone 2 mil or whatever? How quickly can we anticipte replacing the car fleet? Are there limitations to how many batteries we can produce? Will Jeavon's Paradoxundo the good we do even if it the electric vehicle is scaleable?

All of these are questions that have been discussed here in the past and will be again in the future. If some appear rather "doomy" it is because we have done the math and are not... optimistic. We have families. We like our 1000 mile salads and international vacations, but we cannot escape what we know of math, sociology, ecology etc...

You should feel free to bring forth another opinion but it should come with some hard headed math or other argumentation showing how it will work. We apprecitate good argument (we have some doosies and can throw some elbows) but reassurance based on trust is not something that is worth a lot.

I do hope you will stick around. If you have any questions please do not be slow to send a private message to any of the moderators.

One example of an ongoing electric car debate at peakoil.com

[Micki]

j-bloggsy, you are welcome to debate and discuss. But given your last statement about oil just going down, I would have expected you (like some others here) to substantiate your thinking a bit.
The thing is, noone knows which way oil is heading short term. But right now there is no real driver for oil to head down for any length of time. If a global recession sets in, yeah perhaps. But technology making a difference???? That's a high odds bet, cause production is flat and demand is still increasing.

Personally, and I have explained this thinking in several posts, I don't think we will see a major recession now. The main, but not only reason, is the 1.5QUADRILLION dollars worth of OTC Derivatives. The CB's are not keen to set of this chain of dominoes right now. The alternative, particularly for US, is therefore to inflate. They can talk as much as they like, but sending the nation in to recession now is extremely dangerous to the federal reserves member banks (I don't think their policies are particularly driven out of concern for us commoners). Continued inflation in US will mean increasing commodity prices in US$ and weakening US$ against most other currencies.
Nations that can strengthen their currencies relatively speaking more than oil price goes up, can enjoy cheap fuel whilt nations like US will have to cut back.

Prices however never move in a straight line and like we saw back in 06, there was a big drop in NG and oil as result of GS adjustment of their energy weighting (and funds followed) and jp morgans derivaties that led to the blow up of amaranth (did I get the name right?). The drop was substantial but did not change the trend. Things like that can happen. But for a trend to change, there needs to be some fundamental changes as we don't see those yet.

[Micki]

Hey J_bloggsy. Have you noticed, everytime you post, oil jumps a few bucks? Currently at $139

[desultorypawn]

Hey J_bloggsy. Have you noticed, everytime you post, oil jumps a few bucks? Currently at $139

Made my morning.

[ROCKMAN]

Johny,

We invite you to check out "Giant Oil Field Report...." under the Peak Oil Studies and Energy Reports". We're discussing a PhD thesis written in 2007 that I think you would appreciate. It's 150 pages long with the first half devoted to a general explanation of oil exploration and production. It's detailed enough to offer a good base knowledge w/o requiring a science degree. It might be tedious for many but our group will gladly field any questions.

The second half of the report is the most detailed and up to date explanation of where we are with regards to PO that I have studied (I've been a petroleum geologist for over 30 years...I've seen a bit more than most). Even more important: it's backed by a tremendous amount of research. Instead of making general assumptions about recovery factors, decline rates , etc. he has analyzed (and documented) the 400 largest oil fields in the world.

The group here encourages you to question any aspect of his report you have difficulty accepting. But you will have to activly participate in the discussion. We don't tolerate hit-and-runs any better than the rest.

[Wren]

I believe you said "thanks, I see there's no room for debate here."?
And I would say, well, yes that's true.
Debating implies differing opinions about things that are subjective.
"Peak Oil" (in actuality, a convergence of many things "peaking") is a reality based on scientific research structured around specific mathmetical equation in the contect of geologic knowledge.
This is fairly formulaic. Technology won't save us, conservation won't save us, the news reports won't save us. Because they CAN"T save us.
We consume gas that "comes from" oil, that comes from fossil fuels, that have a certain extraction method AND are a finite resource. (And there's no debate on this, either, amoung serious scientist.)
I appreciate you want to "debate", but that is just not possible in this topic. You want grey in a black & white world.
Good Luck to you!

[cipi604]

Too much attention for an Average Joe (98% of the human population).