[lexicon]

The Peak Oil Movement Is Unprepared For Its Two Biggest Challenges

PLEASE DISTRIBUTE WIDELY


by Michael C. Ruppert

It is now only a matter of weeks before the truth about Peak Oil comes crashing through the mass media, the public consciousness and the imagined realities of life. In July we will see that OPEC (especially Saudi Arabia) cannot increase production. The long unconnected dots will become clear lines depicting a now inevitable collapse and die-off. The once impenetrable edifice of the old paradigm which locked our warnings away and blocked them from real public discussion will rupture. Peak Oil is certain to become an issue in the U.S.general election this November.

Two events are about to take place, and indeed have already begun. The Peak Oil movement, those of us who labored and sacrificed for years,have our collective pants tied round our ankles and our heads inserted deeply into non-energy-producing regions. The first event is easy to address if we focus. The second, however, may literally render what"was" the real Peak Oil movement ineffective and condemn hundreds of thousands, if not millions, to death. Because what people hear and learn in the first months of true Peak Oil awareness will determine the course of discussion, planning and of history, from here to eternity.

Problem 1:

Within weeks or months the major media will become "aware" of Peak Oil. They will come to the Peak Oil movement and say, "OK, what do we do now? What should a President do? What should congress do? What should people do? I have seen no serious or focused attempt to prepare for this demand. I am tinkering with a proposed Presidential Platform on the subject by myself and when I think I have something serious Iwill release it. The addresees of this email ONLY are encouraged to offer suggestions. [Ed: By this, Mike is referring to the recipients of his original email. Blog readers are encouraged to send suggestions to the blog. But Mike is not recommending that everyone start calling the media on their own.] But all of the people who have labored so long and sacrificed so much should be prepared for microphones to be thrust at them nationally and locally. What are you going to say?

Will you say, "It's time to go to Plan B"?...

Problem 2:

This is the most serious threat of all. Already, people who we have never heard of, and who have never sacrificed or contributed an iota, are starting to emerge saying that they have "disovered" Peak Oil. They are presenting themselves as experts. Their first approaches will be to local and regional media outlets who don't know their derrieres from a dry hole in the ground. The local and regional medias will be the ones funneling discussions and questions upward to the Larry Kings of this world. This is just the beginning of a deluge. More than half of those who will wind up on CNN, Fox, ABC and on the pages of our newspapers will be either one of two things: rank opportunists and snake oil salesmen who will distort and peddle bad ideas and self-promotion; or they will be out-and-out disinformation artists funded either by Wall Street or the US government. They will be intent on lining their own pockets, protecting the old paradigm and blunting a truth which has begun its demand for payment before foreclosure. These people will be murderers of the worst sort. Yet they will be flooding media switchboards, email inboxes and fax machines at media outlets around the country. And because they will be making noise they will get the air time that the real activists who have spoken truth will not.

How do I know this?

POWs, Iran-Contra, CIA drug trafficking, the 1992 presidential campaign and 9-11. It happened in every one of those "earth shattering" crises or events. I was there. I watched and felt it happen in every one of those sagas as it unfolded.

People who we have never heard of will be getting the spotlight and the Peak Oil movement will not -- because it gave up at just the wrong moment. The struggle to define Peak and what it means for mankind is just beginning. Are you willing to sit back and watch the snake oil salesmen, dilettantes, and wolves in sheeps clothing dictate the discussion and set the agenda, just when the window and demand for real education opens wide and beckons?


Michael C. Ruppert
Author: "Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire atthe End of the Age of Oil"

http://www.mikeruppert.blogspot.com/

[Ludi]

What should people do? I have seen no serious or focused attempt to prepare for this demand.

http://www.transitiontowns.org/

http://www.communitysolution.org/

http://pathtofreedom.com/

Planning for the Future

[HappyFace]

So the guy has come out of the woodwork to tell me, you lexicon, and a few others (what passes for the 'peak oil movement') that a) we've peaked, and b) the 'peakoil movement' is impotent to do anything about that fact and it's consequences. I could have told you that. Now that you know you'd better get to prepping.

[jdumars]

While people in general are not using the term "peak oil" -- they are using supply and demand.

There are plenty of reasons people will come up with why supply cannot increase, but my feeling is "peak oil" will continue to be the fringiest. Personally, I like it this way. I don't really want people en masse to know. If there was widespread awareness, regular people would instantly lose their ability to do any kind of prep at all. It's already pretty bad.

My prep has turned into possible indentured servitude because we can't afford our own place.

[syrac818]

What a bunch of whiny bullsh*t


Uggghhh... seriously. Basically, peak oil will go mainstream and when it does, other people are going to take my place as the expert and that's really going to hurt my feelings.

Or something like that.
When peak oil goes mainstream, you'll see a huge public push to actually conserve and address the issue. It'll be framed as the great challegnge of our time, there will probably be some sort of feel good campaign centered around, the economy will go into recession and people will bitch, there will be hardship, a lot of innovations will come out but nothing will ever truly replace oil. And slowly, we adapt. Unlike this place, things won't immediately jump to starving hordes and people eating their cat.

What's especially rad about peakoil.com is we all like to pat ourselves on the back for "knowing it all along". We saw this coming in 2004 (or at least I did) and many well before that. The smart ones have made good money from this. However, what this forum never fucking admits is that $100/oil was predicted as the beginning of massive social upheaval. By $120/oil the DOW was at like 5000, and unemployment was soaring to 25%. And by $140 the die off had started as social upheaval had official set in.

But that sh*t didn't happen, because the reality is most of the world is a little more chemically balanced than the majority here. I've tried being an optimist - it was ridiculous. I've tried being a doomer - it was equally ridiculous. Now I'm just being real. We'll grind through it like we always do - with a lower quality of life

And that is my rant.

[americandream]

What a bunch of whiny bullsh*t


Uggghhh... seriously. Basically, peak oil will go mainstream and when it does, other people are going to take my place as the expert and that's really going to hurt my feelings.

Or something like that.
When peak oil goes mainstream, you'll see a huge public push to actually conserve and address the issue. It'll be framed as the great challegnge of our time, there will probably be some sort of feel good campaign centered around, the economy will go into recession and people will bitch, there will be hardship, a lot of innovations will come out but nothing will ever truly replace oil. And slowly, we adapt. Unlike this place, things won't immediately jump to starving hordes and people eating their cat.

What's especially rad about peakoil.com is we all like to pat ourselves on the back for "knowing it all along". We saw this coming in 2004 (or at least I did) and many well before that. The smart ones have made good money from this. However, what this forum never farking admits is that $100/oil was predicted as the beginning of massive social upheaval. By $120/oil the DOW was at like 5000, and unemployment was soaring to 25%. And by $140 the die off had started as social upheaval had official set in.

But that sh*t didn't happen, because the reality is most of the world is a little more chemically balanced than the majority here. I've tried being an optimist - it was ridiculous. I've tried being a doomer - it was equally ridiculous. Now I'm just being real. We'll grind through it like we always do - with a lower quality of life

And that is my rant.

It sounded to me like he was whining over the fact that he wont be in front making a killing out of peak oil.

I see it now....a whole new consulting industry rising to fill a slot on Wall Street.

What hope have we with self serving attitudes like this.

[pedalling_faster]

so he's sort of saying, "beware fake experts", which is probably good advice.

so the government understands that there's going to be a Peak Oil "movement" - people that don't wait for their government to go "ding" and make an official announcement - and may step in to Control the Conversation.

i had an interesting experience at a 911 "Truth" conference in San Diego. part of it was really interesting, physicist Jim Hoffman's presentation of his calculations that relate to building collapse. for everybody that acknowledges that concrete doesn't normally render into dust before it hits the ground (normally it hits the ground & breaks into smaller chunks, it was very interesting to watch him step through his calculations (it takes a LOT of energy to turn concrete into dust.)

so this group of people that is perfectly semi-happy contemplating one of the most spectacular mass murders in history (regardless of who made it happen), then gets around to the subject of, "Why ? (if the government did it) What was the motivation ?"

I raised my hand and said, "Peak Oil".

i was instantly derided as a Ruppert-something (couldn't hear), the coordinator said, "they wanted to seize power" "control the mid-East" (why the mid-East ?) - and then the conversation was herded onto "other topics".

we were going to talk about the motivation about Peak Oil.

i brought up 'Peak Oil'.

it was as if they had a pre-existing agenda - having surrendered to the fact that people are going to talk about 9-11, someone wanted to make sure that Peak Oil was not discussed as a motivation for 9-11.

they're leaving out one of the most interesting parts !

anyway, i got the feeling that i was being baby-sat by the government.

i think this is related to what Mike is saying about, for example, Iran Contra. having accepted that Iran Contra will be investigated, TPTB corral the investigation, control it, let - who was it ? - John Kerry investigate it.

[lexicon]

What a bunch of whiny bullsh*t


Uggghhh... seriously. Basically, peak oil will go mainstream and when it does, other people are going to take my place as the expert and that's really going to hurt my feelings.

Or something like that.

I think his point is not to whine but to warn. We're not going to see Richard Heinberg, Tom Whipple or Dave Cohen making the talk show rounds. Either it will be some poseur we've never heard of or perhaps we'll see the re-emergence of scoundrels like PNACers Woolsey and Gaffney making the talk show rounds stating that they've been on top of Peak Oil from the beginning and that THEIR solutions are the way to go. I think that's who Ruppert is referring to as the "out-and-out disinformation artists funded either by Wall Street or the US government".

[MonteQuest]

In 2005, I wrote:

Initially, it won't be dealt with. Even when the news starts to notice that production has been failing to increase for a long time, we'll initially only see the people speaking about depletion as the fringe alternative group that gets to say a few sentences. Most of the air time will be given to the ecstatically smiling government spokespeople who'll announce that demand has outpaced supply, because "our economy is so strong and we're growing amazingly fast".

"Most people won't pay attention to it until they see the effects themselves. And even if there's an immediate economic crisis and insanely volatile prices, it seems extremely likely that the onset of decline will for a long time be obscured by political events and trouble in the producing countries, so IMHO we won't have good evidence for the peak until many years after it - there will be years of talking heads on TV speaking about "investment" and exploration to bring the production back up. It's going to take long for everyone to acknowledge depletion."

[Kingcoal]

I've noticed that people in the mainstream media don't like to talk about the supply/demand issue. Every single story talks about trying to get those "deadbeat" OPEC producers to "pump more oil." God, if we had to rely on pump jacks for all our oil, we'd have been in deep a long time ago. There is a fundamental lack of understanding of well pressure and the implications when it starts to drop off. It seems that the population at large thinks we pump most of our oil out of the ground. Regarding the supply/demand issue, when they address it, it's always framed as a voluntary decision to limit production. In all, mainstream media and the public at large is in denial. People have all kinds of weird conspiracy theories about why gas is expensive. It's almost religious, people cling to their own little theory in comfort because the truth is so stark, they'd rather not reconcile with it. I have the feeling that when we are well in to decline, people will still be clinging to these irrational beliefs and getting hostile when people try to educate them. I guess deep down inside they know that this is the end, the end of the world they know and that is simply too much reality for the average person.

[RdSnt]

Nothing much is going to happen. It isn't a sinking boat, there is no where to jump to. A minority will snarl and spit, the majority will be just as passive as they have been so far.

[mos6507]

What should people do? I have seen no serious or focused attempt to prepare for this demand.

http://www.transitiontowns.org/

http://www.communitysolution.org/

http://pathtofreedom.com/

Planning for the Future

I don't see Matt Simmons pushing these concepts.

Richard Heinberg's got to get out on the talk show circuit, stat.

[Ayoob]

We are, each of us, on our own. That's the bottom line. It doesn't matter whether you grab headlines or make money or try to figure out how to live in the desert. You will make your choices and they will have consequences.

And that's how she goes.

If you've ever watched Escape from Sobibor, there were a bunch of jews who didn't run, who stood and rocked back and forth and prayed, who didn't run through the minefield. Guess what happened to them.

Some ran and made it, some ran and hit mines.

[wisconsin_cur]

People who we have never heard of will be getting the spotlight and the Peak Oil movement will not -- because it gave up at just the wrong moment. The struggle to define Peak and what it means for mankind is just beginning. Are you willing to sit back and watch the snake oil salesmen, dilettantes, and wolves in sheeps clothing dictate the discussion and set the agenda, just when the window and demand for real education opens wide and beckons?

Following Cur Rule for Living #1 I would have to say, "Yes, I am willing to sit back."

Cur Rule for Living #1:

When an unstoppable force is moving in a trajectory that will cause it to impact upon an immovable object, get out of the way.

In this case the unstoppable force is the decline in available energy through oil depletion and the immovable object is the human propensity for self-delusion.

Where ever you are, don't get between them.

[yull]

I predict that when oil production begins to properly decline as we fall off the peak, this declining production will be blamed on demand destruction from "the recession". This could go on for several years. Hell, we could have 10 years of declining production but then that will be blamed on "the depression". If prices are still high during this it will be the collapsing dollar, or the exporters withholding oil. I have no doubt that the idea that we really have peaked due to geological will gain a lot of ground but I can't see it being the consensus for a very long time.

I have learnt that one shouldn't underestimate the human capacity for denial.

[MD]

Addressing challenges is great. Try to focus on solutions instead of rants against that which you can't change.

[drakedaggers]

I think we ought to be paying attention to Mike on this one.
To me, his point was that when a huge media campaign to to inform and finally look at peak begins, and he thinks it's coming soon, we peak oil folks have to be prepared to be a very vocal and assertive part of the dialogue. We have to be prepared and confident to push forth the Heinbergs and Whipples and Campbells etc... to the front lines of the debate.

[wisconsin_cur]

Addressing challenges is great. Try to focus on solutions instead of rants against that which you can't change.

Fair enough. I will remain negative about what can be done on a macro level but that does not mean there are not opportunities in the micro-sphere.

What can be done on a local basis or within my circle of friends, family and associates?

1. Help individuals and families relocalize their personal economies through the sharing of resources and knowledge. This would include but not be limited to selling/trading/gifting of OP seed and starter livestock.

2. Encourage others to act on investments they may be slow to undertake. By investments i mean investments in their personal environment such as the capability to heat with wood or expanded garden space, or fruit trees.

3. Give the gift of my labor as they work on their own projects.

4. Insert more options here: _____________________.

[DantesPeak]

What a bunch of whiny bullsh*t


Uggghhh... seriously. Basically, peak oil will go mainstream and when it does, other people are going to take my place as the expert and that's really going to hurt my feelings.

Or something like that.
When peak oil goes mainstream, you'll see a huge public push to actually conserve and address the issue. It'll be framed as the great challegnge of our time, there will probably be some sort of feel good campaign centered around, the economy will go into recession and people will bitch, there will be hardship, a lot of innovations will come out but nothing will ever truly replace oil. And slowly, we adapt. Unlike this place, things won't immediately jump to starving hordes and people eating their cat.

What's especially rad about peakoil.com is we all like to pat ourselves on the back for "knowing it all along". We saw this coming in 2004 (or at least I did) and many well before that. The smart ones have made good money from this. However, what this forum never farking admits is that $100/oil was predicted as the beginning of massive social upheaval. By $120/oil the DOW was at like 5000, and unemployment was soaring to 25%. And by $140 the die off had started as social upheaval had official set in.

But that sh*t didn't happen, because the reality is most of the world is a little more chemically balanced than the majority here. I've tried being an optimist - it was ridiculous. I've tried being a doomer - it was equally ridiculous. Now I'm just being real. We'll grind through it like we always do - with a lower quality of life

And that is my rant.

I think you over-generalizing about the opinions here. Yes Kunstler said the market was going to 5000. He's not an economist, but he might have right if the Fed didn't bail out the whole banking system March 17, but it did.

But that's just one opinion. As for myself I have never predicted the likelihood of a major market crash just yet. Neither have most others here who understand energy and economics well.

I've said that because most of our infrastructure was built on cheap oil, we have the benefit of that - and for the most part - the higher price of oil isn't immeadiately reflected in the cost of consumer goods. I would guess on average prices are now based upon $80 oil in the US. The average imported price of oil last year was only $70. So we still haven't even felt the effects of $100, and when we do, we will be in a recession at least.

There are many fine posters here, and in their field of expertise, they give excellent advice.

[MrBean]

What should people do? I have seen no serious or focused attempt to prepare for this demand.

http://www.transitiontowns.org/

http://www.communitysolution.org/

http://pathtofreedom.com/

Planning for the Future

I don't think there is demand for that kind of supply of ideas in the gov&media...

The question should be put other way, what does the gov&media want to hear, and in that very limited area, what would be not totally insane?