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Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 11:44:43

See this TOD post of mine:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4171

It finally explains the classic shape of the Hubbert peak.

IMO this is a first-principles derivation that doesn't use the Verhulst equation. The premise behind using Verhulst never made any sense to me.
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Re: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion

Unread postby cipi604 » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 13:25:23

Numbers don't lie.
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Re: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 15:16:47

cipi604 wrote:Numbers don't lie.
Indeed, and liars don't count.

I liked this comment I got on TheOilDrum:
"WHT analysis would have been important in the 1920-1930's but its 2008 now and they seems to have done quite well without the dispersive model."

My response was: A common theme among many observers. For example, Big Bang Theory seems to be a hot topic among scientific cosmologists and the Stephen Hawking fans. But some genius comes along and says "Why is the Big Bang important? That happened billions of years ago, and I can't buy gas for less than $4 a gallon today."

So it's all a matter of perspective. We still want to understand how we got ourselves into this mess.
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