[MikeInHouston]

I think the rate of decline of US production is an exellent model for predicting World production. Looking at the data of actual US production since 1970 from EIA www.eia.doe.gov US prodution does not decline nearly as steeply as most peak oil theorist predict World production will decline. The US was able to produce 90% of Peak rate as late as 1986, 16 years after the peak. After that it does "fall off a cliff." The extended lower plateau was due in part to offshore production and the North Slope. You could make a case that ultra-deep water drilling and the polar regions could do the same for World production. Also demand destruction caused by increasing price for crude should shallow the curve some what as world drilling in rapidly increased at the same time. Demand destruction is biggest variable in future supply/demand issues. Signifigant demand destruction can only be caused by world GDP contraction.

What I think could happen is GDP contaction and production decline along with increasing price per barrel could stabalize somewhat at around 70 Mbpd for a number of years (5-10) before we reach the cliff.

The decline in US production is probally a best case scenerio. Since US production was largly free of political interfernce, and benefited from increasing World production to stabalize and grow the overall economy.

Don't let my optimism fool you, I am definatly a believer in peak oil. However facts above the ground will have a large impact on world production/consumption. World wide pain and suffering will still be substantial using the US as a model for World oil production decline.

[Tyler_JC]

The US model is likely too optimistic.

Much of the world's oil reserves are in places that would never allow free market capitalism to control the energy industry.

Does anyone expect Venezuela, Nigeria, or Iran to allow foreign investors to drill without interference?

[Aaron]

Additionally, the US fields were produced with conventional drilling & recovery technology for decades before more modern techniques were applied.

Most current large fields have been exploited using much more aggressive modern technology for decades, which necessarily hasten the peak in production of these formations, and result in steeper declines after mid-point.

ouch

[emersonbiggins]

From what I've learned here, I've taken that higher rates of extraction achieved through advanced technologies, e.g. watercutting, not only steepen the production curve, but the decline as well. AFAIK, many wells in the U.S. do not use such technologies; hence the nice, gradual slope.

**EDIT** ^^^ Aaron beat me to it.

[MikeInHouston]

I agree the US model is a best case scenerio, however it does show what is possible. What I trying to do is some how factor in realworld results to the future model of world production.

Hubberts model only looks at the geological issues. Supply/Demand of Oil will also be influenced by facts above the ground. $250 or more per barrel will dramaticly affect both consumption and Supply.

It will not change the big picture, but for a short time we may be able to struggle along at a lower plateau.

[MikeInHouston]

US production has also been held up by thousands of small wells, the majors got out of west texas a long time ago, yet production keeps struggling along.

The world will definatly not be able to keep production at peak levels. Offshore, polar, unconventional and much more intesive drilling and sqeezing out as much as possible from existing well should slow the decline. The price per barrel will be much, much higher. You have to factor in the Human reaction to the problem.

Our reactions will alter the predicted outcome, the question is by how much.

What the decline rate of US production show us is reaction can flatten the curve, for a short time.

[Aaron]

I agree the US model is a best case scenerio, however it does show what is possible. What I trying to do is some how factor in realworld results to the future model of world production.

Hubberts model only looks at the geological issues. Supply/Demand of Oil will also be influenced by facts above the ground. $250 or more per barrel will dramaticly affect both consumption and Supply.

It will not change the big picture, but for a short time we may be able to struggle along at a lower plateau.

Demand destruction (aka poverty), is certainly a factor... but I rather suspect that long before we reach a point where demand destruction makes any serious dent in consumption, we will find ourselves embroiled in military conflicts around the globe as we try and police these critical resources.

In these discussions of demand destruction, what deserves our attention is the incredible inertia that human population growth produces towards further growth. It's like a giant ship at sea... it simply won't stop on a dime.

Just as Jevons observed in his day, & as we have seen from our own experiences over the past 40 years, increases in efficiency and conservation do not equate to decreases in consumption overall.

Quite the opposite.

Welcome to a fellow Houstonian BTW.

[MikeInHouston]

world oil production/consumption(they are basically the same) declined 13% from 1979 to 1983. (according to EIA) Since 2005 we have declined slightly. I suspect that $140 per barrel and increasing will also decrease consumption by bringing about world economic recession (or depression). OPEC will not let the price fall too far without cutting back production. The problem is in the past when consumption went down the price of oil fell, helping to bring about economic recovery. This time the price will not be able to fall signifigantly due to production shortages.

There will be a time (I think soon) that the world economy realizes the inevitability of peak oil, and that changes (actually reverses) economic models of perpetual growth.

Global Oil Warfare is another varible outside of the more simpler economic issues of supply and demand. I definatly agree it is very real possibility. I tend to think that most future warfare caused by peak oil will be Nations turning upon themselfs as Goverments/Armys struggle to maintain themselfs.

[SoylentGreen]

the numbers based on world requirements seem reasonable. Whose arse are they going to pump the increased amounts of oil out of is the question I would like answered.

[dissturbbed]

also while we hit the peak all we had to do was import more oil from other countries where will the world import its oil from when demand strips supply

[Pops]

My new touchstone is BP's Reserves/Production ratio in years of production at current demand chart.

It's been 40 years of reserves for the past 20 years.

http://www.bp.com/iframe.do?categoryId= ... Id=7044895

World - Oil R/P ratio...

[TheDude]

The economists didn't see that coming. Stripper wells have a bright future. Only 21 wells in the US produce > 12.8 kbpd - 18 of them are Federal offshore!

[Serial_Worrier]

Don't worry. A massive, sudden 6,000,000,000 die-off will take care of the problem!

[Pops]

Don't worry. A massive, sudden 6,000,000,000 die-off will take care of the problem!

Don't be silly.

Oh and take such cartoon comments somewhere else.