[Mominator]

I read in a book eons ago about peanut butter sales being a litmus test for the economy. I did some searches and I couldn't find much about peanut butter sales (other than they are up 9%).
Is someone in here skilled enough to find a nice chart for me. I like charts and absolute numbers more than generic 9%'s--though that 9% did confirm what I was thinking anyway.

Thanks in advance

[Alanintx]

No chart, no graph, no insider tips regarding the peanut butter trade.

But when I was in college, my professor who taught me marcoeconomics said he liked to use the "white dress shirt" index. Tracking the sales of white men's dress shirts back in the day was what he thought was a good inicator of the health of the American economy.

Not much of an index any more, I guess.

[Armageddon]

My economics professor told me to track condom sales for a measuring stick regarding the health of the economy. When times are bad, people stay home and have sex more. I wonder how trojan stocks are doing right now ?

[smallpoxgirl]

My economics professor told me to track condom sales for a measuring stick regarding the health of the economy. When times are bad, people stay home and have sex more. I wonder how trojan stocks are doing right now ?

Unfortunately, probably not a very useful marker. Trojan isn't independently traded. It's a wholly owned subsidiary of Church & Dwight Co., Inc. link

Is peanut butter supposed to be an inverse marker? I.e. Economy is poor, people scrimp on food, buy more peanut butter?

[Concerned]

This thread reminds me of Life of Brian where they interperet the sandal as a sign for various things.

Economics is not a science, never was never will be way too much politics involved. Besides when you let it run as a "free market" it ends up totally borked.

[MrBill]

One should not confuse economic theory(s) with the economy. Nor economics with political interference in the economy.

Peanut butter is a lower cost substitute for meat as it is rich in protein. Therefore, as the price of meat rises you should see more consumers switching to peanut butter. But also children in general may like peanut butter more than say fresh vegetables that also help stretch the family's food budget.

[efarmer]

Armageddon, a fatal flaw in your condom financial index is
that when times are tough, Saran Wrap is substituted for
the premium latex products as an austerity measure.
(It is however not ribbed for her pleasure.)

Peanut butter and Kool Aid instead of soda are a good
indicator I believe, (grew up in a grocery store family biz).

We lost Elvis too soon, what a time he would have now,
stylishly gobbling peanut butter and banana sandwiches,
and being able to snap up dozens of CRT type color TV's
at garage sales to blast into oblivion whenever the talking
head went naughty in the wee hours of the morning.

Being frugal, I have come up with my own Elvis paradigm,
I am down with the PB and banana sandwich but instead
shoot my LCD screen with a water pistol while watching
Fox News for little stimulative snippets of yellow journalism.
My aim is true and I never miss Hannity, I am a fair and balanced
shot, and I have the cleanest screen in town.

[topcat]

If I had to pick a good measure of the economy, I would choose Domino's pizza, guessing that folks would buy frozen pizzas rather than order out for pizza.

BTW: The large number of orders being delivered to the Pentagon by Domino's was used to predict that 'something' was going to happen way back when the US did the first ME conflict.

[MrBill]

Pizza home delivery is probably a pretty good proxy for the health of the economy as it not only measures disposable wealth, but also the cost of food and fuel as well as how tight the labor market is.

Here's another: The Budweiser Index. Measure premium beer sales (or wine) to the sale of bargain brand beers. Bubba's always going to drink, but what suds he grabs for will reflect his optimism or pessimism. Also, whether he drinks at home or at a bar.

[taizee]

oatmeal

and

poatatoes

[Concerned]

One should not confuse economic theory(s) with the economy. Nor economics with political interference in the economy.

One should not confuse economics with science.

[MrBill]

An imprecise science in any case. But that is okay, two medical doctors can look at the same symptoms, and not only come up with a different diagnosis, but also perscribe two different cures. And in the end their patient dies anyway!

The great thing about knowledge is that it is acquired independently. My knowledge does not depend on your understanding of the subject nor on any third party's acknowledgement. Therefore, you are prefectly welcome to have your own opinions without impinging one little bit on what I know.

I am not usually a selfish person, but in the end the most important thing is that I understand what is going on in the economy at large. It is nice if I can share that insight, but it is not necessary. I come here to share points of view with others to help understand the peak oil issue(s). And to challenge my assumptions. But at the end of the day I go home by myself and make my own plans independently of what anyone else here thinks, says or does.

I believe in whatever works. So if new information came out that invalidated my previous point of view I would simply change my opinion. Nothing you have ever said has even caused me to pause for a millisecond to reconsider my core understanding of economics, finance, banking or anything else. So your lowly opinion of economics as an imperfect science is really just your own misunderstanding of what I already know. Your perception is not my reality.

[Armageddon]

I have noticed restaurants in my area ( st. louis ) a little less crowded recently, and I don't mean McDonalds. Our local Outback steakhouse use to have a 45 min - 1 hour wait on Saturday nights, now there is not a wait at all.

[mobil1]

I like the Big Mac indices for foreign exchange. Makes sense to me as a unit of exchange.

What's the price of oil in Big Macs for US, Canada, Chine, Europe etc ?

[Triffin]

Here's the USO:MCD ratio ..

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO:MC ... 9146217326

ie Long Oil / Short Big Macs )

Triff ..

[MrBill]

6-years, 0-percent financing and the very real risk that many of those auto loans may default at some time.... sounds like another Motown winning strategy?

GM was the industry's main surprise after a sale featuring zero percent financing for six years allowed the U.S. automaker to avoid losing sales leadership in the month to Toyota.

(continued)

GM shares, which touched a 54-year-low on Monday and have been trending lower for two months, rose as much as 15 percent on the June sales figures, pulling the broader U.S. equity market higher.

The stock, which has lost half its value since the end of April, finished up 2.17 percent at $11.75.

Analysts said GM's more modest sales decline in June showed that its incentive program had succeeded. GM has avoided such a strategy in recent years because it cuts into profit margins and can rob sales from future months.

Source: U.S. auto sales hit 15-year low

Maybe in H2 they can pay people to buy their vehicles to maintain market share?

[charliebrownout]

This thread reminds me of Life of Brian where they interperet the sandal as a sign for various things.

Economics is not a science, never was never will be way too much politics involved. Besides when you let it run as a "free market" it ends up totally borked.

Ah, I love that movie. I just watched it again the other night.

Hehe...Bigus Dickus and his wife Incontinentia Buttocks

Anyway...I don't think peanut butter would be a good measure considering the fact that, in the US, peanut allergies have been on the rise.

[yeahbut]

This thread reminds me of Life of Brian where they interperet the sandal as a sign for various things.

Economics is not a science, never was never will be way too much politics involved. Besides when you let it run as a "free market" it ends up totally borked.

Ah, I love that movie. I just watched it again the other night.

Hehe...Bigus Dickus and his wife Incontinentia Buttocks

Welease Woderwick!

btw Mrs Brownout, congrats on one of the best handles here

[charliebrownout]

Welease Woderwick!

btw Mrs Brownout, congrats on one of the best handles here

Thank you, and I tip my hat to your handle as well. I believe, if they were to write a "how to" manual on "formulating rebuttals to Peak Oil", there would be an entire section devoted to the "Yeah but..." clause.

[Narz]

I'm more of an almond butter fan myself. They have raw almond butter at Trader Joe's for $4.99 a pound. Strangely that price has come down from $5.99/lb previously (even as almonds in general are pretty expensive these days).