[wertz]

As far as the U.S. goes, I think this will hurt bad, as bad if not worse as anything since the great depression, but its not going to happen overnight.

As production drops the price of gas will truly sky rocket, it will devastate many sectors of the economy. Energy bills will also shoot through the roof, and the lower class largely probably will be without electricity and the middle class will be forced to conserve. Food supplies will shrink and even middle class families might see themselves using all of their disposable income and savings on food. Crime will increase dramatically. But also more food will be bought locally and help employ more people, though economically this change won't benefit society as a whole as far as prices.

I think we will see the US finally start to really conserve. Not that this is going to stop anything, but it will help. What I think is going to work is that all investment capital is going to go into renewables while the US switches more and more to nuclear and coal just to sustain us a little bit.

The thing a lot of people miss I think is that we won't need silicon photovailics. Concentrating solar panels that heat hot water to generate power are almost twice as efficient and are potentially much cheaper to make.

While I think that we should be preparing now so that at least this wouldn't be crazy-scary, I think the market will dictate a shift on its own, but its still going to be very scary, because we are only going to have one shot. And while maybe 1/3 to 1/2 of this country is going to be completely on its knees, I think we will emerge and if its handled well I think we will still have enough electricity with renewables, natural gas, coal, and nuclear power. We will still probably have to use some non-renewables for a while, but the solar and wind will be the biggest industries in this country until we completely solve the crisis.

[syrac818]

Nice post, agree on a lot of things.

It will be one hell of a transition and there will be serious hardship, but we will adapt. I expect some pretty amazing developments to come out of it too.

[Ludi]

What I think is going to work is that all investment capital is going to go into renewables while the US switches more and more to nuclear and coal just to sustain us a little bit.

How can "all investment capital" go into renewables while the US switches to more nuclear and coal? Where is the investment in nuclear and coal going to come from if "all investment capital" is going into renewables?

[wertz]

What I think is going to work is that all investment capital is going to go into renewables while the US switches more and more to nuclear and coal just to sustain us a little bit.

How can "all investment capital" go into renewables while the US switches to more nuclear and coal? Where is the investment in nuclear and coal going to come from if "all investment capital" is going into renewables?

Yeah, I should have specified more. It won't be "all" but it will be an absurd amount that will go into solar.

I'm just really nervous as to when the government will start approving solar projects on federal land. The sooner the better. They lifted the moratorium, but that doesn't really do any good if they aren't approving applications anyways.

I'm also worried about the senate getting those solar tax credits passed after the 4th of July recess. Won't these get picked up at the state level if they don't though? I think California already has something in place, but i don't know.

[lapulapu]

In the private sector, investment is predicated on return to investors. If the economy runs on energy which is now mainly powered by FF and will shrink with less FF per Export Land Model, would alternative energy projects generate sufficient returns to investors in an envirornment of an ever shrinking economy? In a concrete example: if more and more people will be out of a job, who will sign up for those expensive electricity produced from the alternative energy projects? And looking at the Great Depression as precedent, private investments were at a stand still because the economy was shrinking.

Thats gets us back to the public sector as the source of investment capital. If that is the more realistic capital pool for the energy transition (because theoretically the public is the investor), I am not optimistic based upon current experience with government policies and the soundness of our fiscal balance sheet current and in the future (baby boomer social security payouts etc..).

Yes, not everything will go up in smoke, but when system underpinnings become more fragile as we move forward, intuitively the probability of a "trigger event" that upsets the whole apple cart becomes higher.

[dsula]

wertz
I pretty much share your view. There's so much unbelievable fat out there that can be trimmed before things get to the zombie/roaming gangs level.
There's another thread talking about total collapse within 4 years. All doomer talk.
We will see a gradual worsening of the situation, more and more unemployment, more and more "used car salesman" and "insurance agents" willing to work on farms. There's a "milker" job available at my neighbor's farm now for many month. As long as people don't line up for this, it ain't bad yet. People on this board have been suggesting for several years that bank failures and bank runs are imminent. I'm still waiting. Same with total collapse. It's imminent according to many a poster here.
It is without question that standard of living will drop drastically in the future. But it's a gradual slide. The idea that by 2012 the only way to get a slice of bread is to shoot your way thru masses of looting bands is wrong.

[Cashmere]

You'll notice as you peruse this site that the extent to which a member believes that we are doomed is highly correlated to their knowledge level.

That is a causitive relationship.

See my sig, below, for more info . . .

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[wertz]

Why aren't people moving to Iceland then? I've honestly thought about it, but I wonder how much they rely on other countries for food and stuff even though they produce most of their own energy. Are people growing gardens and picking up shotguns or are people just accepting it and hoping that it all works out?

What I'm worried about is transportation. I hope its gradual enough that people naturally find better ways of getting around. The grid doesn't care where the power comes from, but it's probably going to take more than a few years of renewable energy being a lot cheaper than fossil fuels to get us the amount of energy to power our homes like we do now and charge electric cars.

[wertz]

So people think the decline is going to be too sharp to reinvent our nation as a solar and nuclear country before it all completely falls apart? I sure hope that's not what happens.

Not that we will be able to just stay how we are by switching to other stuff at all, but I'd like to think we could meet at a place where sensible living and energy based less on fossil fuels and more on renewable sources will still keep everything intact. Where you can still buy food and work for money.

[Serial_Worrier]

Don't listen to the doomers.

[wertz]

What I'm worried about is transportation.

Personal transportation? I would be more worried about food later on than anything else.

Like when oil production starts to decline, not after a collapse. Gas might cost some people almost as much as they make. I think if we can keep getting people to their jobs and keep power on for at least the middle class willing to pay for it, then we can stall the collapse while we work on solutions.

[nutmeg]

Wertz is going through the stages of grief. Can you guess which one?

DABDA

DENIAL

ANGER

BARGAINING

DEPRESSION

ACCEPTANCE

[socrates1fan]

I have no doubt alternatives will come into play at some point.
My concern is when. It seems like the US government sits there and thinks about every little thing unrelated to the topic and then finally just maybe passes a bill that can help us with the energy criss.
To me, its not 'if' they will bring in alternatives, it is 'when'.
Until then things are going to get harder and by the time alternatives come into full swing the population of the planet will probably be smaller(but not less then 4 billion) and people will have learned their lesson. Industry and technology will probably be given more appreciation instead of being abused.
Technology can be used to do a lot of things, and I'm for technological advancements for things such as hygiene, medicial, energy, and transportation(trains mostly).
The problem is, as time goes on your gonna see a lot of companies go bankrupt and while other industries will survive by either decreasing the area they serve or using renewables you still have a rapid loss of jobs but I believe by that time many Americans will probably make their own money using their own skills or working in suddenly needed markets.
People are going to have to put their differences aside, we can't have a purification of the world like Spain did centuries ago.
If we don't get along we pretty much seal the deal that we will either die or suffer badly. A lot of people seem to believe that as technology decreases many cultural groups will vanish as well which I strongly disagree with. Every group has to consider themselves a part of a bigger group known as humans and the goal is survival and peace.
It will be interesting but we can't all sit back and watch.

[gnm]

Are people growing gardens and picking up shotguns

Well, Um, yeah..... Aren't you?

And I should add
Switching to complete off grid PV, Solar/wood heating, well outfitted shop, Independent water cisterns etc etc etc...



-G

[socrates1fan]

Are people growing gardens and picking up shotguns

Well, Um, yeah..... Aren't you?

And I should add
Switching to complete off grid PV, Solar/wood heating, well outfitted shop, Independent water cisterns etc etc etc...



-G

Too bad a majority of Americans can't afford that.

[gnm]

Too bad a majority of Americans can't afford that.

Too bad so many CHOSE to blow their money on other things. New car, kitchen remodeling, new ipod, cell phone contracts, satellite TV, etc.

I've scrounged for panels and used solar equipment, I've saved up for batteries, I've rigged things myself and done everything from concrete work, plumbing and electrical myself to cut costs.

I'm no rich man. My house was cheap and looks like hell. But I chose to spend what I have on infrastructure not aesthetics...

And.... I've been at it over a decade...



-G

[socrates1fan]

Too bad a majority of Americans can't afford that.

Too bad so many CHOSE to blow their money on other things. New car, kitchen remodeling, new ipod, cell phone contracts, satellite TV, etc.

I've scrounged for panels and used solar equipment, I've saved up for batteries, I've rigged things myself and done everything from concrete work, plumbing and electrical myself to cut costs.

I'm no rich man. My house was cheap and looks like hell. But I chose to spend what I have on infrastructure not aesthetics...

And.... I've been at it over a decade...



-G

I'm talking about the Americans that make ends meet paycheck to paycheck. The people that can afford this only buy cars and things like that on special days(like xmas or birthdays.).
So its not that people can't afford it because they spend their money on SUVs or ipods its that these people can't afford much in general. Too bad those people were too busy buying food or trying to keep the lights on huh?