[alokin]

There are so many negative posts recently about "TSHTF" now, in some weeks, month etc. but the discussion is mostly about the US, sometimes Europe.

How is the situation in other countries?

Here in Australia, everything (at least for us) seems pretty much the same. Nobody I know complains (we don't live in a high incoms suburb). Even car mechanics don't fear for their jobs. Food prices gone up, but it still don't hurt (us) really. High interest rates are worse.

[wisconsin_cur]

There are so many negative posts recently about "TSHTF" now, in some weeks, month etc. but the discussion is mostly about the US, sometimes Europe.

How is the situation in other countries?

Here in Australia, everything (at least for us) seems pretty much the same. Nobody I know complains (we don't live in a high incoms suburb). Even car mechanics don't fear for their jobs. Food prices gone up, but it still don't hurt (us) really. High interest rates are worse.

If the crisis of 1929 could not be regulated to one part of the earth, why would a new one be? We are interconnected in our food systems, our financial systems and so much more than 80 years ago.

There probably are some resilient nations which are able to "surf the wave" longer than others (including the US) but that does not mean that there is not a wave, that it is not big, there are not sharks in the water and there is about to be blood.

[venky]

Fuel prices are causing hurt to many folks, but generally speaking it has hardly been catastrophic. Looking around, life seems much the same, the freeways are clogged with traffic, the restaurants are filled with people eating out; most people are driving as much as they want.

Fact is our economies are far more resilient to high oil prices than we thought several years ago. Thats not to say business as usual can go on for ever, but I daresay life as we know it will go continue far longer into to the future than peak oilers may think.

[Windmills]

Timing, rate of decline, and magnitude of decline and its effects are always in contention. There's no catastrophe here in the US at this point. It has only just begun, so it's quite reasonable to think that the worst is yet to come. How long do you think "far longer" is?

[Tyler_JC]

The majority of this websites frequent users are Americans.

Of the top 25 posters, about 21 of them are from the United States.

As with most of the internet, English is the language of communication. Many of the world's native English speaking computer owners live in the USA.

As a result, the discussions tend to be very US-focused.

We welcome members from all over the world and everyone gains from the unique perspectives of people in other countries.

The reason TS appears to happen mostly in the USA is that America has had very low gasoline prices for a very long time. The result has been a society with an entitlement complex with regards to cheap fuel. That's starting to change but in the mean time, the transition can be very painful.

[KingM]

re: Australia. How is your public transportation? What powers your agricultural machinery? How do you fertilize your old, poor soils? How much oil do you produce relative to your use?

[JohnDenver]

Fuel prices are causing hurt to many folks, but generally speaking it has hardly been catastrophic. Looking around, life seems much the same, the freeways are clogged with traffic, the restaurants are filled with people eating out; most people are driving as much as they want.

The same is true of Osaka, Japan where I live. If you blindfolded me, put me in a time machine, and then asked me to guess what year I was in -- 2000 with really cheap oil, or 2008 with outrageously expensive oil -- I honestly couldn't tell you, just by looking at the city.

Fact is our economies are far more resilient to high oil prices than we thought several years ago. Thats not to say business as usual can go on for ever, but I daresay life as we know it will go continue far longer into to the future than peak oilers may think.

Agreed.

[BlueGhostNo2]

In the UK people are driving slower, although this could be partly down to the Speed Cameras.
There are protests by the Haulage people about fuel duty, they are asking for a fuel duty exception.
My friends now tell me they dont' want to hear about recession / oil depletion because its depressing rather than saying it's BS.
People are sharing driving on long distance trips specifically to reduce the petrol cost.

HOWEVER, business is still continuing, few people I know seem to be cutting back on spending significantly.

[alokin]

I talked to a woman who lived in London for many years. She came to Australia because she said that in London everybody is stressed nowadays an electricity end everything is so expensive, that everyone is running around and work work..don't know if it's true.

I don't tell that we won't have the same s*** as everywhere in Australia, i only mean that at the moment you don't see it very much.
Petrol prices are about $1.60/l and trains are fuller but maybe it's because they improved the service a bit.

[MrBill]

alokin, Australia is currently benefiting from exports to the rest of Asia that have up until now been booming. The USA is currently in a recession - officially or not - while the RBA is raising rates to combat inflation in Australia. Two economies. Different dynamics. Not all economies are in sync. That does not make Australia any more resilient to global climate change or post peak oil resource depletion. My own opinion is that high energy prices in the USA may be exacerbating their economic slowdown, but the real cause is debt overhang.

[Hagakure_Leofman]

I would have thought car mechanics have good prospects for the short and medium term alokin. Since people are buying fewer new cars as the rise in oil discourages them, then their existing cars will require maintenance. It's going to be a long time before people stop driving altogether.

[alokin]

Yes, we have lots of coal, minerals, uranium and wheat. That makes us rich.
When I begun this thread I was just wondering - is this only us a PO community which smells the change? Or is living in Australia better (at the moment). And it seems it is. We must not be better off in future especially with climate change and droughts.

It is SO strange, live around me has not changed at all, new houses are built new streets, people talking about birthday presents for the kids about dolls exhibitions and I make sometimes strange statements, that things will go down, which are not taken very seriously.

I guess that the problems are maybe more visible in other countries especially in the US.

[MrBill]

That is also pretty much the case in Alberta right now. Everything is booming, so all these climate change and resource depletion problems seem to many too far into the future to care much about today. Collective amnesia. Or as Al says, an inconvient truth.

[ROCKMAN]

You bring up a good issue alokin: real financial pain vs. complaining. There are some very depressed areas in the US. But they were pretty depressed when oil was $40/bbl. As I'm sure you know we've had rather low fuel taxes so a $1/gal jump is a bigger proportion then in the UK or down under (perhaps?). Despite the whining the US economy is doing well in certain aspects. Even in the areas (as Mr. Bill points out) where we are in trouble the average guy isn't too aware. Probably the collapse of the housing market accelerated the bitching cycle a good bit. I don't know about you Aussies but in the US the only real savings many folks have is the equity in their homes. We just don't put much of our income in the bank. In some areas folks have lost up to 1/3 of their equity. This was a great shock to their sense of security.

I’m very lucky. Besides working in the oil patch I live in Texas where the economy (less housing) is still robust. But, in general, there has been no real pain due to rising oil…YET. Unemployment in the US is still near a historic low. We just had a 3 day holiday and the report is in on the catastrophic change in our driving habits: folks drove 1.2% fewer miles this year than last. That may seem like a small drop to an Aussie but we are the best country in the world and therefore should not be hindered by these annoyances.

If you think our bitching has been bad wait until the real impact starts showing up here in the next year or two. We are one of the biggest economies in the world. It takes a while for things to change much here. Unfortunately that’s also true on the recovery side.

[watermelonpunch]

There are so many negative posts recently about "TSHTF" now, in some weeks, month etc. but the discussion is mostly about the US, sometimes Europe.

How is the situation in other countries?

Here in Australia, everything (at least for us) seems pretty much the same. Nobody I know complains (we don't live in a high incoms suburb). Even car mechanics don't fear for their jobs. Food prices gone up, but it still don't hurt (us) really. High interest rates are worse.

For the love, please don't attempt to gauge the average American's attitude, reaction, and thoughts by the Americans posting on this forum. ha!


Myself included... or maybe especially me. I'll quickly admit I'm the very last person that anyone should choose to use to form ideas about the average American. ha!

Believe me, it doesn't seem like many people I come across have any thoughts that "TS will HTF" soon.

Yeah, regular Americans complain about gas prices, and now they're starting to complain a tad about food prices... But the fact is, a lot of Americans complain all the time, always, about everything, as a general rule. Myself included. So it's really hard to tell whether there's any genuine concerns building, especially regarding the big picture.

As recently as a few of months ago, my comments about how SUV sales are going to have to go down the tubes eventually were still being met with incredulity, as if nobody would ever have good enough reason not to have an SUV.

It's only in the past month or so that I'm seeing anyone around me, at work or socially, actually consciously making efforts to mend their driving ways at all, even in small ways. Entertainment spending might be down a tad... some people I know might be going to restaurants less than they did say a year or 2 ago. But..

Fuel prices are causing hurt to many folks, but generally speaking it has hardly been catastrophic.

At least not yet.

There's no catastrophe here in the US at this point. It has only just begun,...

Well, I happen to think that it begun some time back, but it's only just now beginning to get to the point where people start noticing it. And as for general awareness and feeling there's a problem by the general public in the US... I think that won't begin in earnest for some time.

Of course I think things will be halfway flushed down the toilet by the time most people get a clue about the scope of the issues. But my faith in the rational thinking my fellow Americans, or even my fellow humans, has definitely dropped steadily throughout my life. I may be a tad too jaded.

The same is true of Osaka, Japan where I live. If you blindfolded me, put me in a time machine, and then asked me to guess what year I was in -- 2000 with really cheap oil, or 2008 with outrageously expensive oil -- I honestly couldn't tell you, just by looking at the city.

You are hardly a spokesperson for all of Japan, JD. Maybe you should travel around more.

No, he's not... But it's hard to not believe what he says because everything I ever read & hear about metropolitan Japan makes it sound like American hyper ambitious frivolous consumerism on steroids.
Seriously, the Japanese as a culture have taken the work hard for a dream life filled with expensive shiny belongings (& no time to enjoy them), to the hilt. When I've read articles about the Japanese business workers, they make suburbanites commuting 3 hours out of the day to live in a house they're never at seem normal.
I know everyone's not quite that extreme there, because I had a very nicepen-pal in Japan in the early 90s, and she didn't seem to me to be a breathless spender with a lot of superficial concerns, outside her lovable Snoopy & Hello Kitty themed items. haha.
And I had a friend who moved to Osaka about 15 years ago, and she described a more a balanced culture than you read about.

But there's nothing to suggest that they're anymore energy conscious than, say, Americans.

Anyway, without a doubt, if TSHTF in one part of the world, it's felt everywhere to some degree at some point. Even if people have a hard time connecting the dots in their consciousness.

[mos6507]

But there's nothing to suggest that they're anymore energy conscious than, say, Americans.

The crowding in Japan kind of mandates a certain amount of energy efficiency as a byproduct. They don't have the space for McMansions or huge SUVs.

[watermelonpunch]

But there's nothing to suggest that they're anymore energy conscious than, say, Americans.

The crowding in Japan kind of mandates a certain amount of energy efficiency as a byproduct. They don't have the space for McMansions or huge SUVs.

Granted as fact.

But energy efficiency and energy consciousness are 2 different things.

The best way to demonstrate my thoughts about this:

I live in the same area, with the same income, etc., as someone I'll call Fictional Joe. Well, I might be consolidating errands and turning off light switches in rooms not in use, while Fictional Joe is not, because I'm more energy conscious, maybe because I'm frugal, or maybe because I have expense(s) Fictional Joe doesn't have, that aren't maybe obvious.

At the start of the SHTF... you might not notice any difference in my behaviour, but you may suddenly notice a sharp change in Fictional Joe's behaviour at some point.

On the one hand, you MIGHT not notice any differences in Japan, as quickly as in the U.S.

But on other hand, that might not be indicative of smooth sailing ahead, as it might lead to a harsher more abrupt change...

Kind of like the way I clicked on a link recently that was about "10 ways to be more frugal", and was disappointed because I already practiced all 10 of them my whole life.

If Fictional Joe went to that list, he might actually be able to stave off calamity a little longer than me by implementing those things.

Japan may be more efficient out of necessity. But when looked upon from that angle, that's not necessarily something in their favour when TSHTF.

Which TSHTF is what this thread is about. heehee.

TSHTF might be, in fact worse for them in the short term, even though they don't have McMansions.

Though in the long-term, I'm not qualified yet to even speculate, but that falls outside the realm of this thread anyway.

[MrBill]

Japan uses two-thirds the energy to produce the same amount of GDP as the USA adjusted for the size of their economy. Of course, they are energy conscious. They import all of their energy needs. They learned a valuable lesson from the oil shocks of the 70s. Also, they have an aggressive neighbor vying for influence in the region, so they are accutely aware of their economic vulnerabilities. A Japanese salaryman that is prepared to work long hours and make sacrafices for his firm is the one prepared to make those same sacrafices at home to save energy as well. Different mindset. But of course individual circumstances may vary from Tokyo to Hokkaido.