[NoWorries]

Are we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end?

I think the odds are > 50% on that. I also think the likelihood of a stock market crash is > 50% by year end, and that will almost certainly depress oil prices even further.

[VMarcHart]

Are we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end?

I'm not holding my breath on that. Why would it go down?

[AlexdeLarge]

I don't think its reflecting the supply side of the equation. Looks like the "Speculators" are now anticipating recession and heavy demand destruction.

[JoeW]

Are we on our way back to ~ $100 oil by year end?

I'm not holding my breath on that. Why would it go down?

Decreased US consumption lately would have to be the main driver to push prices back down. The demand-side response to high prices is slow.
I think a retreat to $100 is possible, but there probably need to be some reports to show that inventories are building first due to decreased demand.
I wouldn't bet on it.
Prices will be volatile in the short term, but the overall long-term trend will be higher, just as Colin Campbell predicted.

[Kingcoal]

Demand destruction will cause the price to fluctuate in the short term, but I don't care about the short term. IMO, the long term trend is up, up and away.

[NeoPeasant]

They said of the 1930's depression "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar".
Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."

The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices.

[VMarcHart]

They said of the 1930's depression, "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar". Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."

I like that.

The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices.

Something to be said about this. There's so much discorrelation --does this word exist?-- between oil and gas, that even if oil dropped to $100, gas still has a lot to catch up. Consummers pay for gas, not oil.

[Cashmere]

Don't let every 5 or 10 dollar drop sway you.

When the price gets low enough, there is going to be a major spike back up.

Big players out there are licking their chops waiting to sniff bottom of dip. When they sniff - bam.

There are market players and forces well beyond what we can imagine.

Who knows, maybe there is motivation to suppress price to get short interest built for later squeezing.

In the end, oil moves up. If you have a 2 month long position, worry. If you have a 2 year long position, "what, me worry?"

[CoachT]

If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

[eastbay]

If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

Why? Do you have some inside information suggesting oil is soon going out of fashion?

[Cashmere]

If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

You have gotta love this.

Nothing like random quotes on the Internet.

Reminds me of the time I was in a bank and the Teller saw my 6 figure checking account number and asked me if I would like to see a "financial advisor" about investing the money.

So I look over and the "financial advisor" is sitting on the edge of a cube farm.

Hah!

Thanks random Internet guy.

Let me ask you this - how should I invest the money I've already made off of oil?

[threadbear]

If you are invested in oil, don't hold on too long. It will continue to drop. Possibly a large drop this week. By September you need to be out or you will lose big time.

If international govts. are able to synchronize their plans to reregulate the energy exchanges, oil should drop back to 100.00 per barrel. It was the main topic of the G8 conference. Is this what you are thinking too?

[threadbear]

Big players out there are licking their chops waiting to sniff bottom of dip. When they sniff - bam.

Have you been following recent economic/political developments?

[threadbear]

They said of the 1930's depression "A steak dinner cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar".
Perhaps they will say of the 2010's depression "A gallon of gas cost a dollar, but you didn't have a dollar."

The price of oil will drop as the consumers lose the ability to continue to pay the current prices.

You are going way too far the other way. We will still see an inflationary depression that will set the floor under the price pretty high, but bring the ceiling much lower.

[Peleg]

Clearly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.

[Ferretlover]

Clearly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.

You're a comedian this morning!
My guess in the "PO Challenge Pool" is that the lowest it will get is $116.

[zberry]

The lowest it will get is back to (or just under) the long-term trendline on the monthly chart going back to 1998. When we had the big correction a few years ago, down to 55 or whatever, it held the trendline (actually bounced off it hard). I would guess that trendline is now in the $75 -80 range, moving a bit higher every day.
Here's what I am keeping in mind. If we are at peak now, there are roughly 1 trillion barrels left of economically recoverable oil. There are 6.7 billion humans. That is between 100 and 150 barrels per person. Each US citizen uses approx 25 per year(maybe 22 or 23 now). Theoretically, each US citizens' fair allotment will be gone in less than six years.
Also, keep in mind the number of cars.
USA - 750 cars per 1,000 people
China - 4 cars per 1,000 people, but selling 500,000 units per month.
India - $2,500 Tata car so all 500 million middle class Indians can drive!
ELM shows net exports will decline 75% by 2031.
Long-term, the trend is up, unless we in the US can suddenly turn Amish overnight!

[smallpoxgirl]

There's been no indication that the long term trend is reversing. I'd bet on a bounce tomorrow at around $134.

[Peleg]

Clearly it is heading back to $35 per barrel.

You're a comedian this morning!
My guess in the "PO Challenge Pool" is that the lowest it will get is $116.

It's hard to make money in this country as either a comedian or an honest man. I guess that means I am doomed to a life of poverty.

[Peleg]

There's been no indication that the long term trend is reversing. I'd bet on a bounce tomorrow at around $134.

Does it really matter though? Mine eyes have seen the doom of the oil depletion curve, it's truth is marching on...

Let 'em bilk more people out of their imaginary dollars. Spend 'em while you can. The truth is that the game is over.

Suppose for example that demand deconstructs to the level where we see a huge decline in prices to $10 per barrel. That does not undo the depletion curve it only alters it's shape a bit. And guess what, at this point only demand destruction is really going to bring price down majorly so there you have it. We are between a recession and hard place.