[Cashmere]

It was funny when oil dipped to the mid 130s and some random internet guy comes out of the woodwork to give us financial advice - that we should get out of oil because it's going to crash by fall.

The U.S., like Scut Farkus, issuing new threats to Iran every day.

The Israeli's playing Grover Dill, egging him on.

Then Iran, shooting missiles around just to show they, in fact, have phalli too.

Nigeria, a land of future pure black death.

Venezuela - threats of oil cut off monthly.

World production flat for 4 years.

Cantarell at 34% decline.

China importing 10% more oil this year.

India introducing 2,000$ car.

Oil going back down?

My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

The delusion is worse than the reality because it's delusion that is driving the bus off the cliff.

[jlw61]

Quite right, while this graph is a day behind, you'll be able to see that the march continues up and up. All I can say is that they are telling people to get out so they can buy long positions at a cheaper rate.

Anyone who thinks that oil is going to go down, any appreciable amount for any real length of time anytime soon, is drunk. And the way it's starting to shape up, I doubt the new projects will be able to get online soon enough to make a difference.

[Colorado-Valley]

There was apparently a rumor earlier this week that Bush was going to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Really crashed oil prices for a few days.

Now they're returning to normal ...

[Niagara]

My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

Okay, so take out as big a loan as you can get and invest it in oil futures, or perhaps USO.

It's impossible to lose.....right?

[burtonridr]

There was apparently a rumor earlier this week that Bush was going to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

WTF, I sure hope they dont start leaning on the reserves this early in the game!

LOL "Strategic" Oil reserves, Why is it everything that comes from bush is "Strategic"

[Cashmere]

My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

Okay, so take out as big a loan as you can get and invest it in oil futures, or perhaps USO.

It's impossible to lose.....right?

Sure it's possible - the govt. is going to step in at some point. Cube thinks close to 300. I think close to 200.

The time to make huge money in oil off of a relatively small investment is gone.

You can still make money, just not the sick money that folks who got in 2 years ago have made.

[eastbay]

There was apparently a rumor earlier this week that Bush was going to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Really crashed oil prices for a few days.

Now they're returning to normal ...

Bush or anyone else can EMPTY the SPR and oil prices would continue their upward trend. Remember, the stuff is fungible and the US SPR contains barely enough oil to last the world about 8 days.

Oh, I know it isn't intended to offer a cushion for the world, but prices are set not only on todays supply situation, but anticipated supply. Tapping into the SPR would scare markets into thinking a REAL crisis is afoot, thus creating additional upward pressure on prices. Since US oil is purchased on the world market hitting the SPR would therefore probably have an adverse effect on US pump prices since most US oil is purchased overseas.

When there's serious talk about tapping the SPR, think about increasing your investments in oil-related instruments.

[Ayame]

Such price volatility is to be expected as we traverse the event horizon of peak oil.

They don't truly understand yet, but they will soon and then god help us all.

[NoWorries]

My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

Okay, so take out as big a loan as you can get and invest it in oil futures, or perhaps USO.

It's impossible to lose.....right?

Good point. Long-term, yes it's going way up. But right now I would not put all my eggs in the oil basket. Boone Pickens said $100 by year end is possible.

The $5 increase today is due to Iran tensions flaring up again.

[DantesPeak]

DantesPeak

Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil is going to turn around as early as tommorow. Mid-month in July the US will experience a signficant drop in oil imports due shipment declines from Nigeria, Mexico, and yes, even Saudi Arabia.

When it becomes apparent that crude inventories on hand are heading towards low levels, I would not be surprised if we hit a new high for oil about the end of July or early August. However that is not a specific prediction.

Due to US monetary policy, maybe best described by Bernanke today who said - to paraphrase - we face an unusal short term situation that may continue for a long long time.

That means full speed ahead for inflation.

Well the oil markets did start turning around yesterday. Oil inventories fell in the week ending July 4 not only because of falling imports, but an unexpected and signficant 1 million drop in domestic US oil output last week. Two major refinering companies (Total S.A. and Valero Energy Corp) also unexpectedly announced today they would be immeadiately cutting back refinery operations, being that they have less oil on hand and/or just aren't making enough per barrel buying oil at $140.

As I have been saying since 2006, the oil futures markets will be closed in the US by 2010. Maybe before that. At around $200 the futures will start shutting down by position reductions, with a complete shutdown in the US at roughly $300.

Ironically to some, closing futures markets will actually cause oil to rise even faster in price. Not only are major energy companies heavily short futures on oil, but a major broker - Lehman - is rumored to be on the short side of the market too.

While futures trading by itself only has a short term impact on prices, and does not change long term trends, the signal that the oil market is closing for ever is a sign that PO has come - and gone.

[jlw61]

My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

Okay, so take out as big a loan as you can get and invest it in oil futures, or perhaps USO.

It's impossible to lose.....right?

If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you. The futures market is a dangerous place to be unless you have lots of money to burn. All it would take is a sudden drop back to 120 and you would lose everything along with your contract. Then it would just march right back up to 170 without you.

I don't have the patience, courage, or time for that kind of Tom Foolery. I'll make my money the old fashioned way....

[copious.abundance]

The higher and the faster it rises, the harder it will crash.

[Smudger]

The higher and the faster it rises, the harder it will crash.

?..... oh right standard investment bubble chit chat..is that true or just the higher it falls from the long-term median?........

by jove you must have a target for what it will fall back to what would that be chap?

cheers

Smudger

[AlexdeLarge]

There is only one thing that will bring down the cost of oil.

I will trade in my beloved old SUV and get a Prius. Within 24 hours of purchase, gas will drop back to $2.00/Gal. LOL

[jlw61]

There is only one thing that will bring down the cost of oil.

I will trade in my beloved old SUV and get a Prius. Within 24 hours of purchase, gas will drop back to $2.00/Gal. LOL

Actually, all that would be required is for me to invest my entire financial future into the market and that would guarantee a drop to $35 a barrel within a week.

[copious.abundance]

The higher and the faster it rises, the harder it will crash.

Well I hate to say I told ya so, but I told ya so.

As I type this, light sweet crude is at $93.22.

That's a decline of 36.7% since the intra-day high of $147.27 - in just over 2 months!

It was funny when oil dipped to the mid 130s and some random internet guy comes out of the woodwork to give us financial advice - that we should get out of oil because it's going to crash by fall.

Looks like the random internet guy coming out of the woodwork was right, eh?

[...]

Oil going back down?

My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

The delusion is worse than the reality because it's delusion that is driving the bus off the cliff.

Haha - look who's delusional? You thought the price was going to keep going up and up and up and up and up and . . .

[HEADER_RACK]

Offender 2

Haha - look who's delusional? You thought the price was going to keep going up and up and up and up and up and . . .

Doesn't bother me much. I'm a member of the deflationist camp

[copious.abundance]

Quite right, while this graph is a day behind, you'll be able to see that the march continues up and up. All I can say is that they are telling people to get out so they can buy long positions at a cheaper rate.

Anyone who thinks that oil is going to go down, any appreciable amount for any real length of time anytime soon, is drunk. And the way it's starting to shape up, I doubt the new projects will be able to get online soon enough to make a difference.

BTW, I can't help but chuckle at the irony of this statement given the updated status of the chart.

[Dont_Panic]

Interesting indeed, oil is now at 91.94. It does not, however, mean that we're "saved" and that there'll be unlimited oil for us to burn for ever more. But the drop is significant, and many people swore it would never happen, so it goes to show that you should never be too bombastic...

And I guess it also says something about the economies and all the other factors.

Also, is falling oil a good or a bad thing?

[sjn]

Interesting indeed, oil is now at 91.94. It does not, however, mean that we're "saved" and that there'll be unlimited oil for us to burn for ever more. But the drop is significant, and many people swore it would never happen, so it goes to show that you should never be too bombastic...

And I guess it also says something about the economies and all the other factors.

Also, is falling oil a good or a bad thing?

That depends how you look at it.. At these prices (and with the unavailability of credit) a lot projects will be suspended or abandoned. OilFinder2 may be less gleeful when he discovers this means he now longer has a job!