[NoWorries]

http://energytechstocks.com/wp/?p=1444

Posted: July 11, 2008

Everyone has an oil price prediction nowadays, but few are made by analysts as knowledgeable as Kevin Petak of ICF International, a consulting company that specializes in energy policy and markets. Petak models where energy markets are headed next – and how soon they’ll get there.

Petak’s models are telling him oil prices will “correct” down to the $70-to-$80-a-barrel range, but not nearly soon enough for price-pressured consumers and countries. He told EnergyTechStocks.com that a “depressed” economy will eventually drive prices down...

He's basically talking about demand destruction here. And it's certainly possible.

[Bas]

if we ever see $70 again (which I highly doubt)due to demand destruction it will never be for long as supply decline will force the prices right upto where sustained demand destruction takes place, and that probably can only occur with an ever increasing price.

IOW I believe that Petak's models are outdated and are based, probably, on growing supply.

[essex]

To get to $70 the global economy would have to be completely bankrupted. Let's not go there !

[SMA]

Isn't that just more of the same old wishful thinking? "[...] emphasizing that a “technological shift” powered by PHEVs would eventually start turning things around." I'll believe in that technological shift the day I see it.

Other than that, well...he might be right but if oil hits 70$ because the economy is "depressed" we're probably talking about a depression so huge that 70$ oil won't make anyone happy anyway.

[DantesPeak]

I don't know much about him but he completely missed the rise in natural gas prices this year, based upon another energy tech stocks report from 2007.

http://energytechstocks.com/wp/?p=570

[americandream]

Heck no. Oil will drop to $70 preceded by Indian and Chinese consumption dropping even though the growth programme currently underway in those countries has barely started, and pigs will fly.

[zberry]

Is Mr. Petak aware that the U.S. uses a fiat currency system, and that Mr. Bernanke has promised to use the printing press, or its modern electronic equivalent, to fight any slowdown in "growth"?
If a commentator throws out a statement like that without at least dealing with the fiat currency issue, then I think the commentator is doing a disservice.
The long-term trendline for oil is actually in the 70-80 range, so it wouldn't surprise me to see it touch the trendline again, but I doubt it will. Too many people aware of peak oil now and too hard to hide the obvious depletion.

[SoylentGreen]

If I was Mr Petaks employer, I would randomly pick him for a urinalysis immedietly.

[Peleg]

Is Mr. Petak aware that the U.S. uses a fiat currency system, and that Mr. Bernanke has promised to use the printing press, or its modern electronic equivalent, to fight any slowdown in "growth"?
If a commentator throws out a statement like that without at least dealing with the fiat currency issue, then I think the commentator is doing a disservice.
The long-term trendline for oil is actually in the 70-80 range, so it wouldn't surprise me to see it touch the trendline again, but I doubt it will. Too many people aware of peak oil now and too hard to hide the obvious depletion.

What kind of trend line are you using?

[lowem]

Good, good.

The "oil price will fall to $70" people are coming out of the woodwork. The turnaround will be swift, and violent, just as these calls reach a crescendo.

Remember when it hit $100 and the calls were for $50?
Their business model works this way :

1. divide the current record-setting price by two
2. issue press release or give a speech

When it hits $200, these people will be calling for oil to fall to $100

[Brickhead]

I don't know if this has been posted yet but I haven't seen it on here. This guy is working on pond scum becoming the next oil.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/tech/2 ... ae.oil.cnn

In the video he says that with the land size of 1/10 of New Mexico, we could supply the whole US with all the oil it needs.

[heroineworshipper]

If U think subsidizing Freddie Kreugermac stock is going to wipe U out, imagine how many shares of Chevron stock your government would make you buy if there was an oil collapse.

[Brickhead]

A different way to produce oil, could mean a different commodity to buy. And the oil that's already in the ground might not be worth what it is now. Or this oil from pond scum gets grouped in with the oil in the ground and the price goes down because supply can keep up with demand.

[SoylentGreen]

Oil Sands and some of the deep water extraction costs as much $50-55 a barrel.
We are depending more and more of the deep Oil deposits.Just on a current day average cost to produce 80 millon bbbls. No way is ever going below $110.

[americandream]

Pond scum! Wat next? Bath water scum?

[zberry]

What kind of trend line are you using?

To tell the truth, I haven't looked at a long-term chart for at least 6-8 months, but I'm sure I'm in the ballpark.
Get a monthly chart going back to 1995 or 1998 at least. Draw a trendline from the low at 10 or 15 in late 90s. Notice it touched the trendline on the January 2006 price correction, at about 55-60.
That's the worst-case scenario, IMO.

[alpha480v]

No way it's going to $70 again.